Tesla Delivers Record 97,000 Vehicles in Q3 • Hacker News Board

Re: Tesla Delivers Record 97,000 Vehicles in Q3

#21

Post by daxorid » Wed, Oct 02, 2019, 9:00 PM UTC

rpmisms wrote: post #11

Cue $TSLAQ talking about the Tesla bubble. Really cool to watch Tesla absolutely kick ass.

TSLAQ is actually quite happy with this number, with the stock down 5% AH.

The multiple on this stock has it pegged to be an extreme growth company, but 5% annualized delivery growth with shrinking ASPs is decidedly not a "growth" number.

TSLAQ is wrong that it's a fraud and/or insolvent. But they're absolutely right that its valuation is absurd and needs to eventually come down to meet reality.

Re: Tesla Delivers Record 97,000 Vehicles in Q3

#22

Post by bonestamp2 » Wed, Oct 02, 2019, 9:01 PM UTC

imglorp wrote: post #16

rbf wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I guess 100k deliveries was the magic number investors were hoping for.

And where did they get that number from?

A number of sources are reporting that Musk said it in an email to employees:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-26/tesla-sur...

Re: Tesla Delivers Record 97,000 Vehicles in Q3

#23

Post by samfisher83 » Wed, Oct 02, 2019, 9:02 PM UTC

In the last 4 quarters Tesla has delivered 271,521 model 3s. That would make it about the 12th best selling car in america. That is about as many escapes ford has sold. That is pretty phenomenal.

Re: Tesla Delivers Record 97,000 Vehicles in Q3

#24

Post by danhak » Wed, Oct 02, 2019, 9:02 PM UTC

slg wrote: post #20

That first line after the chart is the big takeaway in my opinion. The backlog of orders increased this quarter which is both good news, since it shows demand is not a problem, and bad news, since Tesla still can't produce cars fast enough.

Good thing they have another factory coming online this quarter :-)

Re: Tesla Delivers Record 97,000 Vehicles in Q3

#25

Post by microtherion » Wed, Oct 02, 2019, 9:03 PM UTC

rbf wrote: post #6

HenryKissinger wrote: post #4

Yet $TSLA has lost ~5% in after hours trading. Wat.png Edit: Wasn't aware of the 100k expectation.

I guess 100k deliveries was the magic number investors were hoping for.

… and not entirely unreasonably so, given that Elon Musk teased that number as late as last week: “We have a shot at achieving our first 100,000 vehicle delivery quarter,”

https://www.sbsun.com/2019/09/26/business-briefly-tesla-surg...

Re: Tesla Delivers Record 97,000 Vehicles in Q3

#26

Post by rhacker » Wed, Oct 02, 2019, 9:06 PM UTC

One day I saw 3 Tesla car carriers parked at the truck stop right next to each other (so about 26 or so Teslas - all model 3s). That was a bit unusual, there is typically one Tesla car carrier per day. This was off the 5 in CA (and at a Casino - lol)

Re: Tesla Delivers Record 97,000 Vehicles in Q3

#27

Post by xkjkls » Wed, Oct 02, 2019, 9:08 PM UTC

graiz wrote: post #17

They had a leaked email posted last week that they were pushing for 100K. So 97k is less than was priced into the stock. Not sure why institutional investors don't like the stock and it's so heavily shorted and twitchy. Tesla could use a COO to manage operational expectations and let Elon focus more on engineering in the future. It'll keep his twitter/email free from setting market expectations.

Institutional investors don’t like the stock because it’s a 16 year old company that’s never made a profit a year in existence. It’s pretty easy to see how that could make any money manager run scared

Re: Tesla Delivers Record 97,000 Vehicles in Q3

#28

Post by danhak » Wed, Oct 02, 2019, 9:08 PM UTC

daxorid wrote: post #21

rpmisms wrote: post #11

Cue $TSLAQ talking about the Tesla bubble. Really cool to watch Tesla absolutely kick ass.

TSLAQ is actually quite happy with this number, with the stock down 5% AH. The multiple on this stock has it pegged to be an extreme growth company, but 5% annualized delivery growth with shrinking ASPs is decidedly not a "growth" number. TSLAQ is wrong that it's a fraud and/or insolvent. But they're absolutely right that its valuation is absurd and needs to eventually come down to meet reality.

That annualized delivery growth figure does not take into account that the Fremont factory is pegged, they have another factory coming online this quarter, and have 4 unreleased vehicles in the pipeline—-more than doubling their lineup—-one of which (Model Y crossover) is in the hottest segment.

Re: Tesla Delivers Record 97,000 Vehicles in Q3

#29

Post by r00fus » Wed, Oct 02, 2019, 9:11 PM UTC

samfisher83 wrote: post #23

In the last 4 quarters Tesla has delivered 271,521 model 3s. That would make it about the 12th best selling car in america. That is about as many escapes ford has sold. That is pretty phenomenal.

With much higher ASP and margins it truly is something to consider.

Re: Tesla Delivers Record 97,000 Vehicles in Q3

#30

Post by cma » Wed, Oct 02, 2019, 9:12 PM UTC

daxorid wrote: post #21

rpmisms wrote: post #11

Cue $TSLAQ talking about the Tesla bubble. Really cool to watch Tesla absolutely kick ass.

TSLAQ is actually quite happy with this number, with the stock down 5% AH. The multiple on this stock has it pegged to be an extreme growth company, but 5% annualized delivery growth with shrinking ASPs is decidedly not a "growth" number. TSLAQ is wrong that it's a fraud and/or insolvent. But they're absolutely right that its valuation is absurd and needs to eventually come down to meet reality.

I think the promises around FSD are fraud, especially since they took a lot of money for it on basically just an over-optimistic hunch of being able to deliver it.