It’s Official: This Is Now the Longest Economic Expansion in US History • Hacker News Board

Re: It’s Official: This Is Now the Longest Economic Expansion in US History

#21

Post by whb07 » Mon, Jul 08, 2019, 2:02 PM UTC

sjg007 wrote: post #16

whb07 wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

it was the government that caused this in the first place. I always wonder why people suggest this, when the "cure" to the ailment is more of the disease.

Randian economics is not a solution.

All this "growth" is largely driven by the debt and grand wisdom of the Fed's monetary policy. Those closest to the money printing press get undiluted gains and by the time that money circulates back down to the general population, they are robbed from their wealth by devaluing the currency. Furthermore, looking at the money supply, the banks aren't actually distributing and lending out that capital like they should. Long story short this is a direct causation of government policy.

Re: It’s Official: This Is Now the Longest Economic Expansion in US History

#22

Post by Excel_Wizard » Mon, Jul 08, 2019, 2:03 PM UTC

blts wrote: post #20

rhacker wrote: post #2

Money is strange, right? It literally doesn't exist yet it can run out and cause entire nations to go into chaos. Since it is literally a sociological experiment, are we going to get to the point where we fine tune the allotment such that we disable down-turns? It's almost as if we simply just get angsty all at once, see a global therapist and the economy recovers.

Money is quite simple - it is the accumulation of value of individual work. The same way batteries store electricity - money store value of work. The same way batteries exchange stored electricity to perform work, money is exchanging stored value to work of others that we desire.

The Labor Theory of Value is a fun toy model, but it isn't very accurate.

Re: It’s Official: This Is Now the Longest Economic Expansion in US History

#23

Post by fxj » Mon, Jul 08, 2019, 2:06 PM UTC

blts wrote: post #20

rhacker wrote: post #2

Money is strange, right? It literally doesn't exist yet it can run out and cause entire nations to go into chaos. Since it is literally a sociological experiment, are we going to get to the point where we fine tune the allotment such that we disable down-turns? It's almost as if we simply just get angsty all at once, see a global therapist and the economy recovers.

Money is quite simple - it is the accumulation of value of individual work. The same way batteries store electricity - money store value of work. The same way batteries exchange stored electricity to perform work, money is exchanging stored value to work of others that we desire.

How does this explain the loss of value of money by inflation?

Re: It’s Official: This Is Now the Longest Economic Expansion in US History

#24

Post by moate » Mon, Jul 08, 2019, 2:09 PM UTC

blts wrote: post #20

rhacker wrote: post #2

Money is strange, right? It literally doesn't exist yet it can run out and cause entire nations to go into chaos. Since it is literally a sociological experiment, are we going to get to the point where we fine tune the allotment such that we disable down-turns? It's almost as if we simply just get angsty all at once, see a global therapist and the economy recovers.

Money is quite simple - it is the accumulation of value of individual work. The same way batteries store electricity - money store value of work. The same way batteries exchange stored electricity to perform work, money is exchanging stored value to work of others that we desire.

>>it is the accumulation of value of individual work

But it's not though is it? When money itself can do the work (investing) then this whole thing sort of falls apart. A battery can't create a larger battery by itself. Also plenty of people inherit their "batteries" or find them through random chance (lotteries, sweepstakes, etc.)

This all sounds good in theory but I don't think it really holds up when examined closely.

Re: It’s Official: This Is Now the Longest Economic Expansion in US History

#25

Post by gagege » Mon, Jul 08, 2019, 2:11 PM UTC

Miner49er wrote: post #18

whb07 wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

it was the government that caused this in the first place. I always wonder why people suggest this, when the "cure" to the ailment is more of the disease.

How does the government cause downturns?

By trying to fix the economy in one area and ignoring the effects of the fix in a bunch of other areas.

Re: It’s Official: This Is Now the Longest Economic Expansion in US History

#26

Post by mmargerum » Mon, Jul 08, 2019, 2:11 PM UTC

Wonder how long it would continue if we stopped injecting a trillion dollars a year into the system.

Re: It’s Official: This Is Now the Longest Economic Expansion in US History

#27

Post by sausman » Mon, Jul 08, 2019, 2:13 PM UTC

rhacker wrote: post #2

Money is strange, right? It literally doesn't exist yet it can run out and cause entire nations to go into chaos. Since it is literally a sociological experiment, are we going to get to the point where we fine tune the allotment such that we disable down-turns? It's almost as if we simply just get angsty all at once, see a global therapist and the economy recovers.

I’m not sure all types of money have this characteristic, but debt-based money in a fractional reserve banking system certainly seems to. The banks are perpetually insolvent because the time structure of their assets (loans) doesn’t match the time structure of their liabilities (“deposits”). At any time a bank run can bring them and the entire economy down. Sure, the government guarantees their deposits, but AFAIK they don’t provide anywhere near enough insurance. Not to mention the moral hazard it creates for banks to act recklessly.

It’s been a while since I read up on the topic, but the origins of fractional-reserve banking sound a lot like fraud that got blamed on the hard money that exposed it. (https://www.amazon.com/dp/1933550287)

Re: It’s Official: This Is Now the Longest Economic Expansion in US History

#28

Post by empath75 » Mon, Jul 08, 2019, 2:13 PM UTC

rhacker wrote: post #2

Money is strange, right? It literally doesn't exist yet it can run out and cause entire nations to go into chaos. Since it is literally a sociological experiment, are we going to get to the point where we fine tune the allotment such that we disable down-turns? It's almost as if we simply just get angsty all at once, see a global therapist and the economy recovers.

> It literally doesn't exist yet it can run out and cause entire nations to go into chaos. Since it is literally a sociological experiment, are we going to get to the point where we fine tune the allotment such that we disable down-turns?

The idea isn't to disable them but make them less drastic. There will always be misallocations of resources that need to be corrected.

Re: It’s Official: This Is Now the Longest Economic Expansion in US History

#29

Post by Nasrudith » Mon, Jul 08, 2019, 2:14 PM UTC

Excel_Wizard wrote: post #22

blts wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Money is quite simple - it is the accumulation of value of individual work. The same way batteries store electricity - money store value of work. The same way batteries exchange stored electricity to perform work, money is exchanging stored value to work of others that we desire.

The Labor Theory of Value is a fun toy model, but it isn't very accurate.

Yeah even putting aside demand (just because someone spent 50 years making one really good vase doesn't mean 50 years of pottery wouldn't be better even if the potter had to dredge all of the clay themselves instead of using apprentices or hired servants) it has been obviously broken since the Industrial revolution at least but had predecessor cases that pointed out it wasn't true. Aquaducts or irrigation canals alone snap it in half.

It goes from "effort to haul X ammount of water Y distance by N people" to "and it just flows after this constant work".

Re: It’s Official: This Is Now the Longest Economic Expansion in US History

#30

Post by yehaaa » Mon, Jul 08, 2019, 2:15 PM UTC

Excel_Wizard wrote: post #22

blts wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Money is quite simple - it is the accumulation of value of individual work. The same way batteries store electricity - money store value of work. The same way batteries exchange stored electricity to perform work, money is exchanging stored value to work of others that we desire.

The Labor Theory of Value is a fun toy model, but it isn't very accurate.

Why? A 100 dollar bill, is a reciept that promises to buy you 100 dollars worth of value. Previously that value was tied to gold, but now it’s a more flexible notion.