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Monte Carlo methods – Why it's a bad idea to go to the casino

easylang.online

21–30 of 170 posts

Re: Monte Carlo methods – Why it's a bad idea to go to the casino

#21

Blackjack has been a source of success for me though I'm unconventional in my betting strategy which seems to enrage the other players even when I break the dealer consistently.

More likely it's just numbers, right? If 1024 people flip coins ten times in a row, it's expected that one of them gets 10 heads. But he's not a genius, right?

Of course you should always back yourself. So more power to you if you're winning in this way. At least you get to keep playing :)

Re: Monte Carlo methods – Why it's a bad idea to go to the casino

#22
This article should be down-voted, the only reason it isn't is due to the clickbaity nature of discussing casino games. It's a terrible initial introduction to Monte Carlo simulations, he doesn't even discuss the possibility of seeing the distributions of the results of the games he proposes, which is essentially the most valuable reason to perform a Monte Carlo simulation.

Re: Monte Carlo methods – Why it's a bad idea to go to the casino

#23
post #4

If you want to really know why you shouldn't gamble (for profit... gambling for fun, with discipline, can be satisfying), read this quintessential book: Scarne’s Complete Guide to Gambling What you will probably take away from this book is that the house wins when you win. And the reason they win is that they don't pay actual odds. Take the roulette wheel as a simple example. There are 37 (or 38 in the case of 0 and…

There is a pinball museum off the strip in Vegas. Played until my wrists ached on $5.

Best part of the Strip. I make a point of going every time I'm in Vegas.

Re: Monte Carlo methods – Why it's a bad idea to go to the casino

#24
post #4

If you want to really know why you shouldn't gamble (for profit... gambling for fun, with discipline, can be satisfying), read this quintessential book: Scarne’s Complete Guide to Gambling What you will probably take away from this book is that the house wins when you win. And the reason they win is that they don't pay actual odds. Take the roulette wheel as a simple example. There are 37 (or 38 in the case of 0 and…

From what I've read, casinos are perfectly happy to let you count cards in blackjack. The advantage you get is so small, that even a few mistakes per hour means you'll lose a bunch of money. It's only if you count cards and win that you get kicked out.

Re: Monte Carlo methods – Why it's a bad idea to go to the casino

#25
post #11

It's more complicated (worse) than this. That the house has a small edge only tells a small part of the story. When people go to vegas for a weekend, they might have a number in their head they are willing to gamble. If they dont, then that number is their bank account balance. Then they start flipping coins, and often they keep doing this until they go bust. They rarely cash out when up but they always lose when the…

Sure, but lots of people can also gamble a little bit and then quit.

Re: Monte Carlo methods – Why it's a bad idea to go to the casino

#26
When I was 8, I spent 6 months in hospital and that was over 50 years ago. Not much to do, so my parents made sure I had lots of puzzle books of all kinds as well as story books. One of those books had a chapter on gambing, which I found interesting, it was written for children. It made the claim that as long as the "bank" had a significant value greater than your own (by at least 10 times), you could not win against them even if the odds were 50:50. As the decades have gone by, I followed this up with other research and basically, gambling is a mugs games if you are not the bank.

Yes, you can at times win and come out ahead. But on the whole, you will lose. My father's advice has always been: "Son, treat it as entertaiment and spend only what you can afford to lose like every other form of entertainment. If you think you can win, you be the fool and will lose more than you can afford." I have also found that gambling institutions are so depressing a venue to be in.

Re: Monte Carlo methods – Why it's a bad idea to go to the casino

#27
post #24
post #4

If you want to really know why you shouldn't gamble (for profit... gambling for fun, with discipline, can be satisfying), read this quintessential book: Scarne’s Complete Guide to Gambling What you will probably take away from this book is that the house wins when you win. And the reason they win is that they don't pay actual odds. Take the roulette wheel as a simple example. There are 37 (or 38 in the case of 0 and…

From what I've read, casinos are perfectly happy to let you count cards in blackjack. The advantage you get is so small, that even a few mistakes per hour means you'll lose a bunch of money. It's only if you count cards and win that you get kicked out.

> From what I've read, casinos are perfectly happy to let you count cards in blackjack. The advantage you get is so small, that even a few mistakes per hour means you'll lose a bunch of money. It's only if you count cards and win that you get kicked out.

It's not that the advantage is small (if it were, the MIT team would never have been so successful in the first place). It's that most people who try aren't good enough to do it well, so the casino is happy to let them try (and fail), thereby making money for the casino.

Re: Monte Carlo methods – Why it's a bad idea to go to the casino

#28
post #11

It's more complicated (worse) than this. That the house has a small edge only tells a small part of the story. When people go to vegas for a weekend, they might have a number in their head they are willing to gamble. If they dont, then that number is their bank account balance. Then they start flipping coins, and often they keep doing this until they go bust. They rarely cash out when up but they always lose when the…

All true, but also this article is about Monte Carlo numerical methods rather than actual casinos.

"Flipping a coin until you get enough tails in a row" is a really good way to describe long term gambling, though. I'm gonna borrow that.

Re: Monte Carlo methods – Why it's a bad idea to go to the casino

#29

This article should be down-voted, the only reason it isn't is due to the clickbaity nature of discussing casino games. It's a terrible initial introduction to Monte Carlo simulations, he doesn't even discuss the possibility of seeing the distributions of the results of the games he proposes, which is essentially the most valuable reason to perform a Monte Carlo simulation.

If you read it instead as an advertisement for easylang.online it's a pretty nice introduction for the language

Re: Monte Carlo methods – Why it's a bad idea to go to the casino

#30
I have similar simulation 10 years back written in C, no fancy description but understand how casino works.

Similar conclusion, once u win enough, you leave; once you lose enough, you leave. Never bring your whole bank account to a casino, or the figures will be move closer to 0.

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