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Earnings Ceiling for Tech Professionals over 40

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Re: Earnings Ceiling for Tech Professionals over 40

#21
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's not an unreasonable view, but there's a big problem with how people measure the value of experience. The value of a younger programmer's work is relatively easy to measure. Not quite lines of code, but something reasonably close to it. As one's focus shifts - e.g. organizing, mentoring others, guiding technology choices, flagging code that works now but will break next year - those results become harder to mea…

I agree with you about the difference in the type of value older workers can bring to the table. Their roles can have a more cross-functional and broader impact. I don't think anyone would discount its value. (I'm in my 40s) But another way to view this is through the lens of supply and demand. If there are over-supply of the roles that can only be filled by older workforce, then the pay will reflect that.

> If there are over-supply of the roles that can only be filled by older workforce

That's a pretty crucial question. Certainly at my age there really are fewer people. How true is that at 40? How unique is that "experience premium"? It seems impossible to evaluate the reality or prevalence of ageism without concrete answers (which I don't know either).

Re: Earnings Ceiling for Tech Professionals over 40

#22

No this is not ageism. After a certain point, if you are an individual contributor, your value is not worth more than someone with less experience. A developer with 10 years of varied experience can usually do just as well as someone with 20 years of experience. I also believe that the idea of the 10x developer while not a myth, is so rare it’s not worth trying to find for most companies. I speak as someone in my mid…

> A developer with 10 years of varied experience can usually do just as well as someone with 20 years of experience

As a developer with 20 years experience ... I'm a lot better at what I do than I was ten years ago. Better at seeing how it relates to the business I'm working with, more productive in ways that are not just LoC.

I'd be OK if I can sustain my current income... but I'd still like to take the step to being more of a consultant. I'm dancing on the edges of it now, between contractor and consultant.

Re: Earnings Ceiling for Tech Professionals over 40

#23
post #8
post #3

Honest question: is this actually ageism or is it business cost-benefit analysis in action? You could argue that the benefit to the company of experience for a tech worker is only worth a maximum of X dollars. After that point, the company is better off hiring younger, cheaper employees with lower expectations than it is continuing to give raises, benefits, etc. to older workers. I would expect a salary plateau to be…

I would believe it if that would apply to other positions. Why is it the case for us but not regular businessmen, lawyers, etc?

In almost all industries you start out doing low level technical stuff and then over time transition to working with people. An analyst at a management consultancy, a bank or a hedge fund spends his time looking at balance sheets or excel, whereas partners go to meetings and dinners with clients.

In a word, you make more money by transitioning from hard skills to soft, and since most developers are unwilling or unable to do this their salaries will plateau.

But compared to the financial industry, and probably law, developers can count themselves lucky. Those industries work on an “up or out” principle, sticking around for 20 years as an analyst simply isn’t an option, no matter how good you are.

Re: Earnings Ceiling for Tech Professionals over 40

#24
post #22

No this is not ageism. After a certain point, if you are an individual contributor, your value is not worth more than someone with less experience. A developer with 10 years of varied experience can usually do just as well as someone with 20 years of experience. I also believe that the idea of the 10x developer while not a myth, is so rare it’s not worth trying to find for most companies. I speak as someone in my mid…

> A developer with 10 years of varied experience can usually do just as well as someone with 20 years of experience As a developer with 20 years experience ... I'm a lot better at what I do than I was ten years ago. Better at seeing how it relates to the business I'm working with, more productive in ways that are not just LoC. I'd be OK if I can sustain my current income... but I'd still like to take the step to bein…

And that’s another line of reasoning I don’t believe.

I have a coworker who is probably 10 years younger than I am but has been working for the company for 7 years to my one, how could I better understand the business of the company than he does?

I worked for one company when I was 35 dealing with the complicated rules of the railroad industry. My manager was 28, but he was the founder of the company before it got acquired, built it from scratch and had 90% penetration in the particular market segment, how could I be more experience at how my code relates to the business - one he studied since he graduated from college?

Re: Earnings Ceiling for Tech Professionals over 40

#25

No this is not ageism. After a certain point, if you are an individual contributor, your value is not worth more than someone with less experience. A developer with 10 years of varied experience can usually do just as well as someone with 20 years of experience. I also believe that the idea of the 10x developer while not a myth, is so rare it’s not worth trying to find for most companies. I speak as someone in my mid…

> your value is not worth more than someone with less experience.

I don't think such a general statement (even its direct inverse) can be true or even particularly useful. At a certain point you're playing the odds. We're dealing with X, what's the chance that someone has seen X before or can see a connection to something else? In those situations, 20 years of varied experience can be a lot more valuable than 10 years of varied experience, especially if the 20 includes areas or approaches that have been forgotten/ignored for most of the last 10. (You'd be surprised how often the ebb and flow of tech fashion produces such results.) Note that I said can. Whether that actually happens depends on the exact technology, what experts you already have, team size/cohesion, etc. "Is not" without qualification expresses a more absolute and certain opinion than is warranted.

Re: Earnings Ceiling for Tech Professionals over 40

#26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Googling "Senior Developer Salary" you'll see 120K +- 10K on average.

https://www.levels.fyi/?compare=Google&track=Software%20Engi... (the data in the actual link you're responding to, with actual level information) $120k/year is what I'd expect someone with 2-3 years experience to be making at Google as a base, with anywhere from $35k-$80k additional in signing bonus and stock offerings. "Senior Software Engineer" means different things at different companies, but to me it indicates s…

Despite what everyone would like to believe, FANG isn't the industry.

Re: Earnings Ceiling for Tech Professionals over 40

#27
post #8
post #3

Honest question: is this actually ageism or is it business cost-benefit analysis in action? You could argue that the benefit to the company of experience for a tech worker is only worth a maximum of X dollars. After that point, the company is better off hiring younger, cheaper employees with lower expectations than it is continuing to give raises, benefits, etc. to older workers. I would expect a salary plateau to be…

I would believe it if that would apply to other positions. Why is it the case for us but not regular businessmen, lawyers, etc?

I would argue the same thing does happen in other positions - salespeople usually cap out at some point or go into management (Though it can be a little odd since they have a commission portion usually. If you're really good, there's not really a cap, but functionally...). Surgeons and lawyers generally cap out unless they end up especially prestigious, but it's high enough that it mostly doesn't matter.

Re: Earnings Ceiling for Tech Professionals over 40

#28
post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> A developer with 10 years of varied experience can usually do just as well as someone with 20 years of experience As a developer with 20 years experience ... I'm a lot better at what I do than I was ten years ago. Better at seeing how it relates to the business I'm working with, more productive in ways that are not just LoC. I'd be OK if I can sustain my current income... but I'd still like to take the step to bein…

And that’s another line of reasoning I don’t believe. I have a coworker who is probably 10 years younger than I am but has been working for the company for 7 years to my one, how could I better understand the business of the company than he does? I worked for one company when I was 35 dealing with the complicated rules of the railroad industry. My manager was 28, but he was the founder of the company before it got ac…

You can always find examples that counter the generalization but don't necessarily make the generalization false. In general, a 40 year old is going to be better than a 25 year old in understanding how software is applicable to business simply because they have more experience. They have been in more business meetings and seen how their software applies. Does that mean a 25 year old can't be better than a 40 year old at that? Of course not.

Re: Earnings Ceiling for Tech Professionals over 40

#29
The article's way of using "ageism" in the lede, and their title, both seem odd, and seem to confuse the real issue of what I think what most people mean by "ageism".

There seems to be a substantial tech industry aversion to hiring developers in 40s (sometimes 30s) or older.

But if you suggest that developers in their 40s expect salary to keep growing without limit, that fuels hairtrigger resentment arguments about how those people are just greedy and unrealistic, and that that's the cause of any "ageism" they perceive.

That would be a diversion from legitimate issues of people getting their resumes illegally screened for age, interview tests targeted at people with CS101 fresh in mind, rejecting candidates for "culture fit" (not just over-20s, but women, certain ethnicities/racial backgrounds, unapproved sex/gender identification), etc.

Re: Earnings Ceiling for Tech Professionals over 40

#30

No this is not ageism. After a certain point, if you are an individual contributor, your value is not worth more than someone with less experience. A developer with 10 years of varied experience can usually do just as well as someone with 20 years of experience. I also believe that the idea of the 10x developer while not a myth, is so rare it’s not worth trying to find for most companies. I speak as someone in my mid…

"I also believe that the idea of the 10x developer while not a myth, is so rare it’s not worth trying to find for most companies"

The problem with the 10x myth is that it assumes a single dimension of productivity, and that no-one is ever negative so there's some sort of sensible, positive "minimum" to talk about.

Senior developer leads a team of three other medium-experience developer, and completes the project in six months. Junior developer leads a team of 5 other even more junior developers, after six months they've got nearly nothing, so we pull in another 4 semi-skilled developers and 2 contractors who are drowned under the mess and don't know what to do, and six months later, the project is cancelled entirely.

How many times better is the senior developer?

There's nothing even remotely skewed about those numbers, either. Both are totally realistic. And yes, senior engineer can fail, and junior engineer could succeed. (Although the range of projects where a junior can succeed and a senior can fail assuming adequate initial knowledgebase for both is fairly narrow; generally if you find one, you've probably got a strawmanned "senior" engineer who isn't actually senior but just a collection of stereotypes in your head.)

If you're still offended:

A generally senior software engineer who knows nothing about the domain and his team of three develop furiously for a year and eventually deliver the first iteration of what was asked for, with another year to go on the project to finish it. A generally software junior engineer who is deeply familiar with the problem domain listens to the customer's problem and after a day's thought realizes what they really need is a very different, but also much simpler, solution, which they deliver in two weeks by themselves. How many more times valuable is the latter?

(I've actually advised someone like that in the construction industry. They were switching into a programming career in their 40s. I said, look, there's no realistic chance you're going to outprogram me in a really academic, isolated sense of the term. But you've got contacts, the ability to pass the shit test with other people in your industry which I and/or generic software engineer have no chance of, and a deep understanding of the problem domain. Don't worry about trying to outprogram a 20-years-experienced software engineer, take advantage of the facts that you know what your customers really need, and... you're there! and I (standing in for generic software engineers) am not! Life's about playing what you're dealt, but people are generally dealt more cards than they realize, I think. Not necessarily better cards, but they have more cards than they think.)

I tend to agree there isn't a such thing as an engineer who is 10x more productive than another, in the sense that they will do the same thing as that other engineer, just 10 times faster. The key comes from doing things differently, most of the time.

There's other differences as well, such as being aware of the pitfalls. I recently got myself put in charge of a billing system, and as a senior engineer, I at least have the good sense to be suitably terrified, for instance. "Move fast and break things" has its place, but "careful, paranoid engineering" does too. Almost by definition, your really junior employees don't really know how to do the latter. (They'll often be able to cargo cult it, which can be a start, but they won't really understand it.)

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