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When Everything That Counts Can’t Be Counted

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Re: When Everything That Counts Can’t Be Counted

#21

Post by sfsfsf6666 »

ses1984 wrote: post #15
bostonpete wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well it can't be that obvious that Uber is overvalued. Are you of the belief that all the big players/investors betting on Uber are missing what you consider to be obvious? Or do you think everyone's just trying to time the bubble collapse...?

I think it's not quite that simple. In the end run up to a bubble, there's a lot of money floating on big bets. Some of them are going to pay off. Most won't. Maybe Uber will. Maybe it won't. They say future value is priced into a stock, and this is where margin for error is the highest. I think smart money in Uber recognizes their position as a gamble. Regularly you hear about hundreds of millions being poured into…

Right, but that's not the points that the article made. Article's author proposed that THE reason, (not A reason) for airbnb's high value is because cheap money makes non-physical assets expensive. You're explanation was that cheap money makes for "big bets", and stocks can price the future in.

Your answer is good. I agree. The stock market is Vegas. The stock market fueled by cheap money, is Vegas times a billion.

I find the article lacking. And I'm being polite.

Re: When Everything That Counts Can’t Be Counted

#22

Post by paulpauper »

elcomet wrote: post #2

> This is why Uber is worth more than all of the auto makers and taxi companies that own their own fleets of cars. I think this is bullshit. Uber may be worth more than auto makers, but this is a bubble and will not last (unless uber manages to create an autonomous taxi service in the next few years). They were just lucky and intelligent enough to get around regulations, but regulations are catching them. Uber's tech…

Uber's tech is simple and easily replicable. The moment they raise their prices, they loose their market share. There is no network effect in this market.

Ppl said the same about Facebook in 2006-2012. "Anyone can make a social network." Yes, the technology can be replicated but the network and market-share cannot.

Re: When Everything That Counts Can’t Be Counted

#24

Post by mempko »

paulpauper wrote: post #19

People were saying this 20 years ago during he dotcom boom, but they called it 'mind share' and 'the new economy'. >Capital is Now Free, Have Fun lol what. Credit card interest is higher than ever. Small business loans are still expensive. Yeah, maybe capital is cheap if you're a multinational or the us govt. but it's still expensive for most. Treasury bonds yields are not a proxy of how much business lending costs.…

Capital is cheap for investors ;-)

Re: When Everything That Counts Can’t Be Counted

#25

Post by jaster »

elcomet wrote: post #2

> This is why Uber is worth more than all of the auto makers and taxi companies that own their own fleets of cars. I think this is bullshit. Uber may be worth more than auto makers, but this is a bubble and will not last (unless uber manages to create an autonomous taxi service in the next few years). They were just lucky and intelligent enough to get around regulations, but regulations are catching them. Uber's tech…

Many people comment under your message that Uber benefits from captured market shares and network effect. In this regard, the following article https://hbr.org/2019/01/why-some-platforms-thrive-and-others... (posted here a week ago https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20142912) can be of interest.

In summary, the article argues that some platforms, such as Uber, benefit far less than others (such as Amazon, AirBnB) from network effects due to the fact that their userbases are clustered over multiple locations :

> Drivers in Boston care mostly about the number of riders in Boston, and riders in Boston care mostly about drivers in Boston. Except for frequent travelers, no one in Boston cares much about the number of drivers and riders in, say, San Francisco. This makes it easy for another ride-sharing service to reach critical mass in a local market and take off through a differentiated offer such as a lower price.

The article raises others points and is quite an interesting read in itself. Strongly recommended.

Re: When Everything That Counts Can’t Be Counted

#26

Post by abakker »

titzer wrote: post #16
mola wrote: post #11

This is not cheap money, this is dumb money. When powerful people make stupid decisions, most people will, nevertheless, copycat their wrong decision. One way or another, reality will smack us in the face and a reckoning will come. The sad part is that those stupid powerful people will be hit much less than the populus they enslave.

Yeah. Unfortunately. Imagine what we could accomplish if we just redirected some of this dumb money into "dumb" things...like education, infrastructure, health care, battling climate change. But nope, walls, drones, and tech bubbles.

== Higher taxes, more research to prove not "where" to spend the money, but "on what, specifically?".

Ever the problem with government and social science - government is dependent on social science to conduct studies that provide that tax dollars are well spent, and then also required to convince the electorate of the value of that expenditure. It's a tough problem with no easy answers. Effective politicians tend to create public sentiment and then find evidence. Effective outcomes would dictate the order be reversed.

Re: When Everything That Counts Can’t Be Counted

#27

Post by parentheses »

The use of hyperbole in this article is a little bit cloying and unnecessary.

The author is asking "where is value [or asset] investing?". I think the question begging to be asked here is " how has the definition of _value_ changed?" We should instead be engaged in an investigation of how value and it's perception has changed.

Re: When Everything That Counts Can’t Be Counted

#28

Post by zepto »

paulpauper wrote: post #22
elcomet wrote: post #2

> This is why Uber is worth more than all of the auto makers and taxi companies that own their own fleets of cars. I think this is bullshit. Uber may be worth more than auto makers, but this is a bubble and will not last (unless uber manages to create an autonomous taxi service in the next few years). They were just lucky and intelligent enough to get around regulations, but regulations are catching them. Uber's tech…

Uber's tech is simple and easily replicable. The moment they raise their prices, they loose their market share. There is no network effect in this market. Ppl said the same about Facebook in 2006-2012. "Anyone can make a social network." Yes, the technology can be replicated but the network and market-share cannot.

What network?

Re: When Everything That Counts Can’t Be Counted

#29

Post by AnimalMuppet »

zepto wrote: post #28
paulpauper wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Uber's tech is simple and easily replicable. The moment they raise their prices, they loose their market share. There is no network effect in this market. Ppl said the same about Facebook in 2006-2012. "Anyone can make a social network." Yes, the technology can be replicated but the network and market-share cannot.

What network?

You've got the customers because they know you've got enough drivers. You've got the drivers because they know you've got enough customers.

Re: When Everything That Counts Can’t Be Counted

#30

Post by titzer »

abakker wrote: post #26
titzer wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah. Unfortunately. Imagine what we could accomplish if we just redirected some of this dumb money into "dumb" things...like education, infrastructure, health care, battling climate change. But nope, walls, drones, and tech bubbles.

== Higher taxes, more research to prove not "where" to spend the money, but "on what, specifically?". Ever the problem with government and social science - government is dependent on social science to conduct studies that provide that tax dollars are well spent, and then also required to convince the electorate of the value of that expenditure. It's a tough problem with no easy answers. Effective politicians tend to…

> Effective politicians tend to create public sentiment and then find evidence

It's really stunning when you consider that blowing a trillion dollars on a new fighter jet needed essentially zero popular support, but funding education is somehow so loony that it requires a solid political majority to even think about.

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