The thing that truly worries me is that once these countries are no longer dependent on each other it will be easier for them to get into war with each other.
When goods and services don't cross borders, soldiers will.
The technology industry is rife with bottlenecks
21–30 of 45 posts
Re: The technology industry is rife with bottlenecks
#22The thing that truly worries me is that once these countries are no longer dependent on each other it will be easier for them to get into war with each other.
At one point people claimed "no two countries with a McDonalds had ever been at war with each other"; this was I believe ended by the NATO attacks on Serbia in support of Kosovan forces. It seems possible that the US will get itself into a conflict, possibly (hopefully!) non-total, that disrupts its globalised supply chains and results in massive US business losses. On the other hand, it's hard to see what any non-nu…
> It seems possible that the US will get itself into a conflict, possibly (hopefully!) non-total, that disrupts its globalised supply chains and results in massive US business losses.
Before WW1 happened, people thought there was no way a major war in Europe, entangling the major powers, would happen because all of their economies were tied together and it would result in a major economic collapse. However, the war still happened.
Re: The technology industry is rife with bottlenecks
#23The thing that truly worries me is that once these countries are no longer dependent on each other it will be easier for them to get into war with each other.
It's interesting to see videos of the borders of the world over time. Contrary to intuition, the rate of shifts (often due to warfare) were accelerating over the centuries. Then, suddenly, since 1945 everything comes to a standstill among developed nations excepting the relatively peaceful internal collapse of some communist nations. 1945 of course being when we first detonated a nuclear weapon over another country,…
> If that sounds difficult to believe consider that we have nukes in excess of 100 megatons
No we don’t. The biggest ever was Tsar Bomba, which was 50 Megatons with the option to make it 100. The aircraft that dropped it barely got out of the way in time, and it was only on a plane at all because it was too big and heavy for a missile.
Re: The technology industry is rife with bottlenecks
#24Earlier quoted context omitted.
That line of thinking didn't stop World War I from happening[1]. [1] - https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2014/04/0... "Political scientists often argue that international economic relationships can decrease the likelihood that states will engage in war. Nations that might otherwise be inclined to fight can be deterred, informed or transformed by economic interdependence. World War I has been called t…
As I recall it, Barbara Tuchman argues/describes in the Excellent "The Guns of August" that once precautionary mobilization had been ordered in one country, due to the nature of the railway system driven technology behind the logistics of the day, war was pretty much inevitable. Nobody realized "the system" had this side effect before it was started, and once the button was pressed, it was pressed... As your quote sa…
But was this really in the nature of the technology, or was it a choice on the part of the German planners? Choosing to only have an invasion plan, and not bother scheduling out the 80%-option which leaves not quite as many troops but all on your side of the border, and so on down? That sounds like the generals wishing for war, to me, and limiting their masters' options.
Not quite parallel, but IIRC it emerged afterwards that the Soviets had no non-nuclear battle plans for Germany. While the US planners kept two sets ready.
Re: The technology industry is rife with bottlenecks
#25Earlier quoted context omitted.
At one point people claimed "no two countries with a McDonalds had ever been at war with each other"; this was I believe ended by the NATO attacks on Serbia in support of Kosovan forces. It seems possible that the US will get itself into a conflict, possibly (hopefully!) non-total, that disrupts its globalised supply chains and results in massive US business losses. On the other hand, it's hard to see what any non-nu…
> It seems possible that the US will get itself into a conflict, possibly (hopefully!) non-total, that disrupts its globalised supply chains and results in massive US business losses. Before WW1 happened, people thought there was no way a major war in Europe, entangling the major powers, would happen because all of their economies were tied together and it would result in a major economic collapse. However, the war s…
One "good" thing about it is that if they are stupid enough to do it anyway the damage means they are less likely to be capable of repeating their mistakes with the same magnitude.
Granted the circumstances can still set the stage afterwards for future conflicts even if the fools responsible lost power as unfortunately demonstrated by WW2.
Re: The technology industry is rife with bottlenecks
#26The thing that truly worries me is that once these countries are no longer dependent on each other it will be easier for them to get into war with each other.
Well, it would be pretty easy to come up with a lot of counterexamples, principally because neighbors are both more likely to trade with one another, and more likely to go to war with one another. Every colonial war for independence was a war between two entities that were doing a lot of trade (the purpose of the colonial system). The entire colonial empire era was based on making war to enable trade, including the various European wars in China to force them to trade more. Japan was forced to trade with the U.S. by "gunboat diplomacy". The U.S. Carter Doctrine says that we will go to war if anyone tries to prevent us trading for oil.
Of course, there are counter-arguments to each of these examples, but that's kind of the point: trade and war don't happen on a random basis, so which one is causing or preventing the other is hard to say. Nations that expect to go to war soon, start looking for other trading partners. It doesn't mean that continuing the trade would have kept the war from happening, it just means wars are usually preceded by a period of rising animosity short of war.
Plus, the Ukraine's decision to pursue EU membership did not lead to a reduction of the threat of war in the Ukraine. Quite the opposite, actually.
Re: The technology industry is rife with bottlenecks
#27Sourcing high value MLCC capacitors is a real problem. I often design something into my board, only to find out it has gone out of stock. It’s like playing whack-a-mole.
We made an item in our design checklist last year to avoid high value MLCC caps whenever possible. We also made sure that no designer can add new high value MLCCs to the component library :)
Re: The technology industry is rife with bottlenecks
#28Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's interesting to see videos of the borders of the world over time. Contrary to intuition, the rate of shifts (often due to warfare) were accelerating over the centuries. Then, suddenly, since 1945 everything comes to a standstill among developed nations excepting the relatively peaceful internal collapse of some communist nations. 1945 of course being when we first detonated a nuclear weapon over another country,…
> If that sounds difficult to believe consider that we have nukes in excess of 100 megatons No we don’t. The biggest ever was Tsar Bomba, which was 50 Megatons with the option to make it 100. The aircraft that dropped it barely got out of the way in time, and it was only on a plane at all because it was too big and heavy for a missile.
Your argument is what? The largest nuke ever tested was 50MT. It is entirely possible (abd probable) that development continued. Was there a physical limit about the tsar Bomba? I think the dial-a-yield testing at only half strength is a pretty solid indicator no.
Do you think they stopped because dropping the Tsar Bomba at full yield was a suicide mission? Yes, yes it is possible that it would have been. That would not have stopped development. Suicide missions happen. We have autonomous planes now.
There's only mild speculation in the >100MT number. They almost certainly exist, and your counterexample is right on the line.
Re: The technology industry is rife with bottlenecks
#29> Without programs like the Linux operating system or Kubernetes, a tool to manage computing loads, Alibaba could not have become the world’s fastest-growing cloud-computing giant
Kubernetes i could probably understand, but Linux under export control?
Re: The technology industry is rife with bottlenecks
#30The thing that truly worries me is that once these countries are no longer dependent on each other it will be easier for them to get into war with each other.
At one point people claimed "no two countries with a McDonalds had ever been at war with each other"; this was I believe ended by the NATO attacks on Serbia in support of Kosovan forces. It seems possible that the US will get itself into a conflict, possibly (hopefully!) non-total, that disrupts its globalised supply chains and results in massive US business losses. On the other hand, it's hard to see what any non-nu…
That McDonald’s thing sounds clever but it boils down to “the US’s Cold War system of alliances lined up closely with its economic ties.”