21–30 of 166 posts
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Because no great scientists ever discovered anything for the purpose of getting paid. No leap in progress or historical achievement was ever driven by personal profit. Ever. Let that sink in.
Weren't Edison and Tesla in it for the money? Betting thousands more too.
>‘Once we build a generally intelligent system, that basically we will ask it to figure out a way to make an investment return for you.' Maybe lets do curing cancer first?
It might be interested in finding others like itself, or it might be interested in making companions, or it might be interested in some other grand projects that we don't understand, but our concerns are likely to be about as relevant as a three year old's career advice.
Allow me to present Altman's wager: - If OpenAI does not achieve AGI, and you invested in it, you lose some finite money (or not, depending on the value of their other R&D) - If OpenAI does not achieve AGI, and you did not invest in it, you saved some finite money, which you could invest elsewhere for finite returns - If OpenAI achieves AGI and you invested in it, you get infinite returns, because AGI will capture al…
You left off the assumptions that AGI will be a superintelligence and one capable of capturing all value. There's no evidence to believe either one. Instead, it will probably be pretty dumb like humans are without the decades of supervised training we get and our interactions with the world. Further, the second a smart one starts getting devastating results, there will be political push-back to do something about it.…
At the very least the system would need extensive training. No reason to believe that the initial versions will have some super-human superspeed self-training ability to absorb a lifetime of information in a very short period.
Also OpenAI seems to have their main strategy for ensuring it's safe as just being the first group to progress towards it and then witholding their research except for select "safe" partners. This seems like it can only make the deployment less democratic rather than necessarily safer.
As far as made up versus real problems, my guess is for someone like Altman who is benefiting so much from the system, it is hard for his worldview to really acknowledge extreme flaws such as fundamental corruption.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Weren't Edison and Tesla in it for the money? Betting thousands more too.
Was Edison a great scientist? Not sure if Tesla was wholly in it for the money, if so he sure made some missteps in getting paid.
Allow me to present Altman's wager: - If OpenAI does not achieve AGI, and you invested in it, you lose some finite money (or not, depending on the value of their other R&D) - If OpenAI does not achieve AGI, and you did not invest in it, you saved some finite money, which you could invest elsewhere for finite returns - If OpenAI achieves AGI and you invested in it, you get infinite returns, because AGI will capture al…
Allow me to present Altman's wager: - If OpenAI does not achieve AGI, and you invested in it, you lose some finite money (or not, depending on the value of their other R&D) - If OpenAI does not achieve AGI, and you did not invest in it, you saved some finite money, which you could invest elsewhere for finite returns - If OpenAI achieves AGI and you invested in it, you get infinite returns, because AGI will capture al…
My current view is that the current political hot potato status of AGI means it won't be developed anytime before the climate crisis really kicks in. At this point fiat money becomes worthless due to emergency measures. Your best bet now to help your future self is to spend to prepare civilisation/your country/your neighbourhood/yourself for the ordeal.
Also due to the current political hot potato nature of AGI I would expect it to be seized/controlled by governments if anyone gets anywhere near close to developing it.
So I see little upside for investing and likely having a reduced capacity for adaptation if you do invest. You may have different ideas about the speed of development or badness of the climate breakdown though.
Allow me to present Altman's wager: - If OpenAI does not achieve AGI, and you invested in it, you lose some finite money (or not, depending on the value of their other R&D) - If OpenAI does not achieve AGI, and you did not invest in it, you saved some finite money, which you could invest elsewhere for finite returns - If OpenAI achieves AGI and you invested in it, you get infinite returns, because AGI will capture al…
You left off the assumptions that AGI will be a superintelligence and one capable of capturing all value. There's no evidence to believe either one. Instead, it will probably be pretty dumb like humans are without the decades of supervised training we get and our interactions with the world. Further, the second a smart one starts getting devastating results, there will be political push-back to do something about it.…
My fear of AGI is that it will not be able to be stopped once deployed, as you're saying. It's irreversible. It will know that we want to shut it down, and so it will be able to copy itself onto other devices (think about the hacking capabilities of AGI for a moment), or any other method of survival.
The current approach is to regulate it after it is invented. While this worked for cars and planes and many other inventions, AGI is different for the reason above.
In fact, with that in mind, a scary thought is that any group of researchers who are cognizant of that would hide their creation of AGI if successful, assuming they were motivated by profit. Thus it would remain woefully unregulated.
> Thursday night would be considered pure insanity coming from someone else. Time will tell. The genius of YC was to spot the hackers as the driving force of a new generation of tech companies, to be founder friendly, to use the classes to get rid of the problem that every angel investor has to contend with ('is this a good investment or not?') and to tell the story in a very compelling way and with their own money o…
Allow me to present Altman's wager: - If OpenAI does not achieve AGI, and you invested in it, you lose some finite money (or not, depending on the value of their other R&D) - If OpenAI does not achieve AGI, and you did not invest in it, you saved some finite money, which you could invest elsewhere for finite returns - If OpenAI achieves AGI and you invested in it, you get infinite returns, because AGI will capture al…
> OpenAI has become a “capped profit” company, with the promise of giving investors up to 100 times their return before giving away excess profit to the rest of the world.