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Heaven or High Water – Selling Miami's Last 50 Years

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Re: Heaven or High Water – Selling Miami's Last 50 Years

#21

Post by acdha »

nabla9 wrote: post #11

What happens 50 years from now should matter relatively little for people living there now. Property owners and banks start discounting the resale value of the land and large property investments, but it's gradual process. After discounting property values, Miami will be cheaper place to live in the future and that means that it may attract even more people.

> What happens 50 years from now should matter relatively little for people living there now. Property owners and banks start discounting the resale value of the land and large property investments, but it's gradual process.

You’re missing a lot of the details explained in the article: this isn’t something like a predictable 2% tax but something which fails significantly at unknown intervals when a bad storm hits, or when infrastructure is overwhelmed and goes from functional to unusable all at once. That leads to highly correlated failures on a large scale: everyone in your zip code can’t get insurance, the entire city needs key infrastructure replaced at the same time, etc. and those also affect the desirability of the area and its ability to attract businesses, tourism, etc. That’s a recipe for volatility and in many cases the potential savings on property values are going to be significantly canceled by higher taxes to pay for all of that infrastructure and increased maintenance costs.

Re: Heaven or High Water – Selling Miami's Last 50 Years

#22

Post by vuln »

taurath wrote: post #15
synctext wrote: post #4

Great article on the disconnectedness and short-term-ism: > She said the main thing is just that Miami was being very forward thinking. She mentioned Amsterdam, and how they were making it work, and how the Dutch were just the poster child for how this worked, and that they were sorting out a way to make this work. “I think the takeaway is just that Miami is doing something about it.” Guess this will take a few flood…

And you can bet the coverage and bailout money will both be a lot larger than Puerto Rico despite a 15 year warning period.

This comment adds nothing to the discussion.

Re: Heaven or High Water – Selling Miami's Last 50 Years

#23

Post by nabla9 »

acdha wrote: post #21
nabla9 wrote: post #11

What happens 50 years from now should matter relatively little for people living there now. Property owners and banks start discounting the resale value of the land and large property investments, but it's gradual process. After discounting property values, Miami will be cheaper place to live in the future and that means that it may attract even more people.

> What happens 50 years from now should matter relatively little for people living there now. Property owners and banks start discounting the resale value of the land and large property investments, but it's gradual process. You’re missing a lot of the details explained in the article: this isn’t something like a predictable 2% tax but something which fails significantly at unknown intervals when a bad storm hits, or…

I don't see how not enumerating details that reduce property values (like repair and maintenance cost and cost of insurance) changes anything I said.

Investing includes risk management. You can discount the abrupt disruptions into the price. Everything you say reduces the value of the property. Eventually large areas will be abandoned but until that happens people can live there.

Re: Heaven or High Water – Selling Miami's Last 50 Years

#24

Post by cs702 »

As often seems to be the case in many parts of the US, the city of Miami is unlikely to muster the political will to do anything about this existential threat until after the city's businesses and residents have suffered serious, irreversible consequences. Think permanent loss. Few things can create as much political will as an irreversible crisis.

By then, of course, it will likely be too late for prevention, so the solution will have to be technological. Engineers of all kinds will have to come to the rescue of Miami and many other low-lying/coastal cities in the US.

Re: Heaven or High Water – Selling Miami's Last 50 Years

#25

Post by Amygaz »

nabla9 wrote: post #11

What happens 50 years from now should matter relatively little for people living there now. Property owners and banks start discounting the resale value of the land and large property investments, but it's gradual process. After discounting property values, Miami will be cheaper place to live in the future and that means that it may attract even more people.

Except that it will cost a lot more to build, insure and maintain.

That being said, I wouldn’t be surprised if people with too much money start buying just to have bragging rights on a magnificent view of the sea level rise.

Re: Heaven or High Water – Selling Miami's Last 50 Years

#26

Post by EliRivers »

barry-cotter wrote: post #8
synctext wrote: post #4

Great article on the disconnectedness and short-term-ism: > She said the main thing is just that Miami was being very forward thinking. She mentioned Amsterdam, and how they were making it work, and how the Dutch were just the poster child for how this worked, and that they were sorting out a way to make this work. “I think the takeaway is just that Miami is doing something about it.” Guess this will take a few flood…

As far as I know Florida is basically all limestone, which is porous, so dams don’t work. The water will seep through the bedrock so you can’t do the same thing in the Netherlands in Miami.

Although Miami can do what synctext mentioned, just like in the Netherlands; raise money, appoint responsible bodies and do something about it.

Re: Heaven or High Water – Selling Miami's Last 50 Years

#27

Post by kibwen »

cs702 wrote: post #24

As often seems to be the case in many parts of the US, the city of Miami is unlikely to muster the political will to do anything about this existential threat until after the city's businesses and residents have suffered serious, irreversible consequences. Think permanent loss. Few things can create as much political will as an irreversible crisis. By then, of course, it will likely be too late for prevention, so the…

Honest question: has anyone, engineer or otherwise, yet come to the rescue of New Orleans in the fourteen years since Katrina? The flooding there, and our response to it, is so far our best benchmark of what we can expect as sea levels keep rising.

Re: Heaven or High Water – Selling Miami's Last 50 Years

#28

Post by kibwen »

EliRivers wrote: post #26
barry-cotter wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As far as I know Florida is basically all limestone, which is porous, so dams don’t work. The water will seep through the bedrock so you can’t do the same thing in the Netherlands in Miami.

Although Miami can do what synctext mentioned, just like in the Netherlands; raise money, appoint responsible bodies and do something about it.

Even with effectively infinite money, "do something" might be able to raise the entire city above sea level but it won't be able to stop hurricanes, which the Netherlands doesn't have to worry about.

Re: Heaven or High Water – Selling Miami's Last 50 Years

#29

Post by paulgb »

vuln wrote: post #22
taurath wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And you can bet the coverage and bailout money will both be a lot larger than Puerto Rico despite a 15 year warning period.

This comment adds nothing to the discussion.

Do you think it's incorrect? It's hard for me to imagine that a good portion of the burden of this won't land on Florida and US taxpayers, in addition to whoever is holding the hot potato when the problem becomes impossible to ignore.
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