Earlier quoted context omitted.
I've never once in my life been able to give real informed consent to a physician, because I've never had one able to inform me quantitatively of the risks and benefits of accepting or refusing treatment. So like, I assume, everyone else I pretty much just have to take what the doctor says on blind faith. Since the vast majority of physicians are good people who actually want to help their patients, I'm not entirely…
I too wish everything in medicine was cut and dry. But oftentimes precise numbers are unavailable. More qualitative reasoning such as "high risk," "serious morbidity or mortality" is usually given in medical assessments. Plans are developed based off that assessment. Doctors and patients routinely make well-considered decisions and get consent knowing that exact numbers aren't known. On the other hand, many treatment…
Re: How Well Do We Understand Probabilities in Medicine? (2016)
#21Yet the point is that even when the numbers are absolutely clear cut and are more than relevant to medical decision making, doctors' training doesn't help them reason their way out of a wet paper bag. They're hopeless even when they're provided with a problem that has the equivalent of training wheels and handrails.