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Fast Train to Failure: California’s Mismanaged High-Speed Rail Project

city-journal.org

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Re: Fast Train to Failure: California’s Mismanaged High-Speed Rail Project

#21

Post by melling »

hirundo wrote: post #7

Self driving cars are expected roll out in the same time frame as this rail project. I think they change the ridership equation. The drive from LAX to SFO is about 6 hours, 3 hours longer than by HSR. But if I can work or sleep in the back I'd prefer to take the car. The car gives me more flexibility at the destination and more privacy, comfort and cargo space. When self driving cars become sufficiently trustworthy a…

Brad Templeton made this argument several years ago:

https://singularityhub.com/2012/09/04/can-high-speed-rail-co...

I tend to disagree. You can move a lot more people more efficiently by train. The train can’t take the direct route because land is now too expensive, versus 40 years ago when the idea was first raised.

It’s unfortunate that it wasn’t built in the 1970’s because we’d now be talking about replacing it with a 350 mph maglev in 30 years.

Re: Fast Train to Failure: California’s Mismanaged High-Speed Rail Project

#23

Post by classichasclass »

> A comparatively small amount of state aid to LA Metro would do far more for California’s environment and economy

Like finishing the Green Line to @#$&ing LAX, maybe. It's ludicrous how bad the public transportation options are to what is arguably the most important airport on the west coast.

Meanwhile, on my monthly sorties through the Central Valley, the Authority continues with its gigantic monuments to bloodymindedness, building tracks no one will ride and ramps no train will crest. We could do so much better with that money.

Re: Fast Train to Failure: California’s Mismanaged High-Speed Rail Project

#24

Post by skybrian »

The key sentence seems to be:

"Fortunately, only a small fraction of CAHSR’s projected cost—$1.4 billion out of nearly $100 billion total—has been spent so far."

This suggests that it might be possible to make major changes, or even start over from scratch, if there's a significantly better way to do it.

Re: Fast Train to Failure: California’s Mismanaged High-Speed Rail Project

#25

Post by CamperBob2 »

chrischen wrote: post #10
hirundo wrote: post #7

Self driving cars are expected roll out in the same time frame as this rail project. I think they change the ridership equation. The drive from LAX to SFO is about 6 hours, 3 hours longer than by HSR. But if I can work or sleep in the back I'd prefer to take the car. The car gives me more flexibility at the destination and more privacy, comfort and cargo space. When self driving cars become sufficiently trustworthy a…

Cars may become self driving, but that won't change the fundamental efficiency problem in that you can only fit so many people in a private car. What you're describing can already be done by calling a Lyft, albeit at slightly higher costs than a self driving car.

A network of self-driving cars is a train, or could be considered one if engineered properly.

Of course, self-driving cars don't run on fixed rails, which costs them a lot of popularity around here. People don't seem to understand that fixed rail is only good for transporting lots and lots of people, very efficiently and safely, from one place where they don't want to be to another place where they don't want to be.

Re: Fast Train to Failure: California’s Mismanaged High-Speed Rail Project

#26

Post by jorblumesea »

Who contributed to this article?

> Connor Harris is a policy analyst at the Manhattan Institute.

https://www.manhattan-institute.org/about

Reading through their other literature, seems pretty partisan and not very objective.

Can we get a less biased source? I'm not doubting the problems of HSR or the project, it would just be nice to get someone with less of an axe to grind.

Re: Fast Train to Failure: California’s Mismanaged High-Speed Rail Project

#27

Post by jfoutz »

madengr wrote: post #15
chrischen wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We're all spread out really really far compared to the rest of the world.

The Hoover dam was built on time and budget, along with numerous other public works projects of the early 20 century. It’s as if nothing can get done now.

There was also a world wide depression.

I kinda think that paying the minimum possible attracts low quality workers, which is ok, but sub optimal.

Making the pay competitive, like it was then, might reduce the total cost.

Re: Fast Train to Failure: California’s Mismanaged High-Speed Rail Project

#28

Post by hirundo »

chrischen wrote: post #10
hirundo wrote: post #7

Self driving cars are expected roll out in the same time frame as this rail project. I think they change the ridership equation. The drive from LAX to SFO is about 6 hours, 3 hours longer than by HSR. But if I can work or sleep in the back I'd prefer to take the car. The car gives me more flexibility at the destination and more privacy, comfort and cargo space. When self driving cars become sufficiently trustworthy a…

Cars may become self driving, but that won't change the fundamental efficiency problem in that you can only fit so many people in a private car. What you're describing can already be done by calling a Lyft, albeit at slightly higher costs than a self driving car.

As Uber is a major investor in self-driving tech, self driving short term rentals are all but inevitable, and likely to become the normal way cars are used. You can rent the whole car or pay less by car pooling, managed by an app. Probably it still will never be as energy efficient as a train on rails, but it's a lot better than one car one rider. And unlike the train, it can easily drop one rider off anywhere along the way.

Or combine the two: turn trains into land ferries where the route allows, and drive road cars onto train cars on one end and off on the other.

Re: Fast Train to Failure: California’s Mismanaged High-Speed Rail Project

#29

Post by [deleted] »

hirundo wrote: post #7

Self driving cars are expected roll out in the same time frame as this rail project. I think they change the ridership equation. The drive from LAX to SFO is about 6 hours, 3 hours longer than by HSR. But if I can work or sleep in the back I'd prefer to take the car. The car gives me more flexibility at the destination and more privacy, comfort and cargo space. When self driving cars become sufficiently trustworthy a…

[deleted]

Re: Fast Train to Failure: California’s Mismanaged High-Speed Rail Project

#30

Post by jwr »

CamperBob2 wrote: post #25
chrischen wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Cars may become self driving, but that won't change the fundamental efficiency problem in that you can only fit so many people in a private car. What you're describing can already be done by calling a Lyft, albeit at slightly higher costs than a self driving car.

A network of self-driving cars is a train, or could be considered one if engineered properly. Of course, self-driving cars don't run on fixed rails, which costs them a lot of popularity around here. People don't seem to understand that fixed rail is only good for transporting lots and lots of people, very efficiently and safely, from one place where they don't want to be to another place where they don't want to be.

Well, that depends on how you build your railways. The way I see it done in the US this is indeed the case, as the stations (especially in California) seem to be in bizarre places and there is rarely a way to get to say an airport by train.

But you can also build railways that make sense. See Japan for an excellent example, as well as most of Europe. These get you from where you are to where you want to be quickly and efficiently.

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