Live data from Hacker News

Bogle Sounds a Warning on Index Funds

wsj.com

21–30 of 234 posts

Re: Bogle Sounds a Warning on Index Funds

#21

Maybe I'm misunderstanding something, because I find it odd to hear this from Bogle himself. Vanguard doesn't own or control the equities in their index funds. You do. Vanguard is structured so that you can own your piece of the index fund pie. And while there are large holders of index funds such as Vanguard's Total Stock Market fund, I don't think there are any majority holders. For 51% of equities to be channeled…

The risk is that Vanguard, State Street, and Blackrock, employ small 'governance teams' whose job is to vote on your behalf. Since they don't have an explicit fiduciary duty to the shareholders of the index funds, but do have an implicit one, it can be argued that you don't actually have a vote in how the component companies are run. More here: https://outline.com/njXPEu

Re: Bogle Sounds a Warning on Index Funds

#23

Maybe I'm misunderstanding something, because I find it odd to hear this from Bogle himself. Vanguard doesn't own or control the equities in their index funds. You do. Vanguard is structured so that you can own your piece of the index fund pie. And while there are large holders of index funds such as Vanguard's Total Stock Market fund, I don't think there are any majority holders. For 51% of equities to be channeled…

the issue arises because typically the fund acts as your proxy when it comes to voting rights (most index investors are looking for a reliable and easy return, not a voice in corporate governance).

Re: Bogle Sounds a Warning on Index Funds

#24

This is fascinating. Selfishly though this seems to signal for investors of index funds (such as myself) that they will only continue to be good investments unless major government regulation occurs. Does anyone know of any investment risk to index funds if everyone is now doing it?

A risk is one of the options, which is a breakup of existing funds: "Force giant index funds to spin off their assets into a number of separate entities, each independently managed. Such a drastic step would—and should—face near-insurmountable obstacles, for it would create havoc for index investors and managers alike."

So long as the two broken up funds are both index funds it won't matter. Index funds all work the same way so a million tiny funds will have the same effect as one large one.

Re: Bogle Sounds a Warning on Index Funds

#25

Maybe I'm misunderstanding something, because I find it odd to hear this from Bogle himself. Vanguard doesn't own or control the equities in their index funds. You do. Vanguard is structured so that you can own your piece of the index fund pie. And while there are large holders of index funds such as Vanguard's Total Stock Market fund, I don't think there are any majority holders. For 51% of equities to be channeled…

[deleted]

Re: Bogle Sounds a Warning on Index Funds

#26

Is there anything legally preventing these funds from having some kind of system where you have fractional voting rights proportional to your number of shares in the mutual fund vs. the weight of the company in the index it represent? e.g. You have 100 shares of a mutual fund that has 1% of its holdings in some company- thus you have 1 vote for that company's shareholder ballot, or whatever the fractional representat…

Nothing stopping that, and they do that to some degree (I get emails from Vanguard once a quarter or so asking me to submit my proxy votes). But realistically, through my Vanguard funds I own very small pieces of thousands of companies around the world. It is in no way worth my time to try to make an informed decision on the shareholder votes for all of those.

Re: Bogle Sounds a Warning on Index Funds

#27
post #18

This is fascinating. Selfishly though this seems to signal for investors of index funds (such as myself) that they will only continue to be good investments unless major government regulation occurs. Does anyone know of any investment risk to index funds if everyone is now doing it?

The risk is because index funds don't do stock analysis (instead they buy and hold all stocks) they will invest in bad companies and prop their price up. Then when the bad company goes bankrupt (as everyone paying attention knows will happen) the index funds are left holding all the stock suddenly worth nothing. Which is to say the traditional more expensive managed funds that actually pay attention to the fundamenta…

I think this is almost true. It would be true if index funds held all the stock. But since they don't and managed funds still exist, the stock price will go down when managed funds decide to sell. When the stock price goes down, the shares become a lower fraction of the index, so the index funds will also sell some.

I think the main point is that index funds still rely on traditional market players to effectively allocate risk. And as index funds take up more of the market, they become less able to do that. Right?

Re: Bogle Sounds a Warning on Index Funds

#28
post #8

This is fascinating. Selfishly though this seems to signal for investors of index funds (such as myself) that they will only continue to be good investments unless major government regulation occurs. Does anyone know of any investment risk to index funds if everyone is now doing it?

one risk is that if too many people are invested in index funds (passive, not buying or selling based on new information), then the price of those stocks is determined by a small group of active investors

So long as the pool is large enough that doesn't matter. Index funds just need the price to be close to reasonable to work out. When the price is not reasonable index funds do well. In general active investors work to push the price to reasonable levels.

Of course there is such a thing as price manipulation which active investors can try - if there are only a few and they work together this can work out. However the investors have incentive to cheat when working together as the cheater wins against his peers, thus this currently is confined to "penny stocks" (for example the company behind the stock doesn't exist anymore but they didn't properly delist their stock so technically it can be traded - you can buy such stocks for say a penny each and then hype them to suckers as the next big thing and sell for 10 cents each and make a killing - since the company doesn't exist no one else pays attention and the scam works.)

Re: Bogle Sounds a Warning on Index Funds

#29

A bit click-baity, but the warning here from the father-of-index-funds is not that they've become a bad investment, but that their popularity is leading toward a handful of financial institutions holding controlling interests in most of the largest companies. Pretty interesting unitended consequence.

How do these financial institutions vote their shares?

Re: Bogle Sounds a Warning on Index Funds

#30
I work in this industry. I'm on the indexing side of it, not the ETF/fund side. We obviously have relationships with all the major fund providers, especially the three big names mentioned in the article. And I happen to work for the big dog - S&P.

"Why? Partly because of two high barriers to entry: the huge scale enjoyed by the big indexers would be difficult to replicate by new entrants; and index fund prices (their expense ratios, or fees) have been driven to commodity-like levels, even to zero."

I can attest that is absolutely 100% true. This business structure is perfect when economies of scale come into play. And S&P is a master of this. It's extremely difficult for others to compete with us because, like everything else, there is a range of services/quality. S&P is at the top end - the Mercedes of index providers. People pay more, but they get the best service/products. The margins are extremely high for any business. But for an service that is considered to have been "commoditized" (and it has to a large extent), our margins are insane. All our competitors want to attack those margins but they have trouble because they aren't able to provide the quality, variety, or depth of service that we do. Which leaves them only able to charge much less and be on the lower end of pricing. Time and time again I've seen some clients leave to go with someone cheaper and become displeased and end up coming back. That's because they simply don't have the internal systems, data contracts, or expertise from having been doing this for as long as we have.

Another thing is that the business model in general is damn near unbeatable. The 500 and DJIA combined require very little work overall as they are just two out of thousands of products we have. But they account for hundreds of millions of dollars in revenue. That's sort of like having a hit movie or book. But the difference with this business model as opposed to most other areas of capitalism is that the revenue is recurring. No where else have I seen unpatented, non-copyrighted intellectual property retain its value like this. Usually there is a surge at the start and then it tapers off fast after release/purchase. That creates a cash cow which they use to build stronger infrastructure and stay at the top.

That being said, let me address the main concern of the article - the issue of ownership for the index funds (not the index providers). I might very well be missing something here, but the answer seems obvious to me. They should just update the law so that the shares owned by the fund providers aren't considered theirs but rather the end holders of the ETFs/funds that they are packaged into. In fact this is so obvious to me I don't understand how it's not already the law since that's the case for a lot of other things like this. If you have a Charles Schwab account and issue an order for a buy, they buy it for you by placing the order under their trading ID on the market. You are later updated to be a holder of record during the trade settlement process. Schwab is a service/pass-through agent. It's very similar for the fund providers. They just buy the shares to package/securitize in advance and then sell to someone. This is the creation/redemption aspect of ETF management. When the creation/redemption process goes on or ETF shares change hands, a process similar to becoming a holder of record through trade settlement should occur. Yes, that would result in you technically being listed as owner of a fractional amount of shares, but that's a hell of a lot better (and easier to deal with) than saying that the fund provider owns all the shares and you just trust them to vote properly for you.

Post reply on HN