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What to expect from a no-deal Brexit

economist.com

21–30 of 112 posts

Re: What to expect from a no-deal Brexit

#21
post #8
post #3

So, why do it? Should a razor thin majority in a public vote 2 years ago decide the UK's policy forever?

Apparently, yes.

How else do you want democracy to work? The people agreed on a system of rules order to decide between two directions and a decision was made. If the government can just decide to not carry out the will of the people (however thin the margins are) then why have a vote at all?

Re: What to expect from a no-deal Brexit

#22
post #9
post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How's the farming community doing in Hong Kong, Macao, and Singapore?

Imposing tariffs on imports is classic protectionism - are you actually arguing that that is a net benefit? Of course the protected industries benefit from protectionism, the argument against protectionism is that everyone else loses. There is no reason that a transaction with a counterparty in Shanghai should incur any more taxes than an equivalent transaction with a counterparty in Manchester.

> are you actually arguing that that is a net benefit?

Net benefit to who? Global capital efficiency, people?

Jobs going overeseas to countries with lower wages and less safty/environmental/etc. regulation has been a net loss for humanity... but it has been a major win for capitol!

Re: What to expect from a no-deal Brexit

#23
post #11

The Economist, The New York Times, SF Chronicle have extracted their full brand value from me and there's nothing left. What I mean by this is that when I see their links, I know that the article will be unreadable, because either they will make me jump through some "created free account" hoops to read it, or there will be so many CPU intensive ads or banners "you have read 2 out of your 3 free articles per month" th…

The problems is that good journalism is expensive. We all know how annoying ads and paywalls are here but it's hard to get enough people to actually want to pay for the content.

Re: What to expect from a no-deal Brexit

#24
post #5

Well, I'm kind of expecting that the no-deal scenario will actually happen. Then a big economic crisis will follow, making it palatable for politicians to actually endorse a new referendum. I'm not saying what the question in such referendum would be, though. And actually, this is the reason why some remainers are voting no to the brexit deal, and it's not even a secret.

Why would a big economic crisis follow a no-deal brexit?

The article explains the reasoning well.

Re: What to expect from a no-deal Brexit

#25
post #5

Well, I'm kind of expecting that the no-deal scenario will actually happen. Then a big economic crisis will follow, making it palatable for politicians to actually endorse a new referendum. I'm not saying what the question in such referendum would be, though. And actually, this is the reason why some remainers are voting no to the brexit deal, and it's not even a secret.

Why would a big economic crisis follow a no-deal brexit?

Adding taxes to almost half of the UK exports virtually over night is not going to be very pleasant. And that’s going to be the least of their worries.

Re: What to expect from a no-deal Brexit

#26
post #12
post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What do you propose? A razor thin minority in a public vote 2 years ago decide the UK's policy forever?

The referendum should have never have been specified with a simple majority rule.

There's no way to fudge this decision.

Let's agree that if everybody wanted Brexit, we should have Brexit. And if everybody wanted to remain, we should have remain. Then, start with everyone wanting Brexit, and flip opinions towards remain, one by one. At some point the group decision flips. Political decisions are just like that. Majority rule is not to blame.

Re: What to expect from a no-deal Brexit

#27
post #11

The Economist, The New York Times, SF Chronicle have extracted their full brand value from me and there's nothing left. What I mean by this is that when I see their links, I know that the article will be unreadable, because either they will make me jump through some "created free account" hoops to read it, or there will be so many CPU intensive ads or banners "you have read 2 out of your 3 free articles per month" th…

I'm an Economist and NYT (and LATimes, and WaPo...) subscriber, because journalism doesn't come out of happy thoughts and thin air, and that remains true even if I'm unhappy with their coverage of some topics.

I got the article page directly. Clean, readable, no ads all over the place.

You get what you pay for.

Re: What to expect from a no-deal Brexit

#28
post #5

Well, I'm kind of expecting that the no-deal scenario will actually happen. Then a big economic crisis will follow, making it palatable for politicians to actually endorse a new referendum. I'm not saying what the question in such referendum would be, though. And actually, this is the reason why some remainers are voting no to the brexit deal, and it's not even a secret.

Why would a big economic crisis follow a no-deal brexit?

May I point to to the article the thread is about.

> What to expect from a no-deal Brexit

>The terrifying consequences if nothing is sorted

The title and subtitle should be enough to get the gist

Re: What to expect from a no-deal Brexit

#29
post #9
post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How's the farming community doing in Hong Kong, Macao, and Singapore?

Imposing tariffs on imports is classic protectionism - are you actually arguing that that is a net benefit? Of course the protected industries benefit from protectionism, the argument against protectionism is that everyone else loses. There is no reason that a transaction with a counterparty in Shanghai should incur any more taxes than an equivalent transaction with a counterparty in Manchester.

> Imposing tariffs on imports is classic protectionism - are you actually arguing that that is a net benefit?

Not sure if it's a net benefit. And neither are you. But there are certainly winners and losers.

Protectionism for European agriculture has made Europe a positively lovely place to live. Have you seen it? I recommend the south of France.

> Of course the protected industries benefit from protectionism, the argument against protectionism is that everyone else loses.

I have a degree in economics, the concept hasn't escaped me.

Noticing that having protections evaporate overnight could have massive negative consequences for many is pretty relevant.

> There is no reason that a transaction with a counterparty in Shanghai should incur any more taxes than an equivalent transaction with a counterparty in Manchester.

If it just happens to turn Manchester into an economic wasteland where the daughters of England are sold into prostitution and working men beg for scraps of food in the street, then those are two reasons.

I get the argument you're making. It's a style of economic conversation where you assume frictionless perfect markets and rational allocations of resources. Those of us that actually understand how economic systems work moved on from that sort of simplistic line of thinking generations ago.

Re: What to expect from a no-deal Brexit

#30
post #3

So, why do it? Should a razor thin majority in a public vote 2 years ago decide the UK's policy forever?

In the UK parliament voting system, you vote for the individual, not the party list. Thus MPs won't do anything that makes them lose votes. Voting for a bad deal (even though it's the best deal you'll get) will make you lose votes in the next election, even more so if the deal is actually approved. It's very easy to criticize from the fences when that gets you more votes.

That's basically the reason why Boris Johnson didn't "run" for Prime Minister on the election after the referendum. And he was the main representative of the Brexit campaign that had just won. He knew whoever was going to be PM would only be able to get a bad deal and would be fiercely criticized.

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