CLOSE THE SUBWAY MIDNIGHT-5AM and fix it
Like most other civilized societies who have a functioning and well-maintained metro system.
That is really all there is to it!
NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', experts say
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Re: NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', experts say
#22Re: NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', experts say
#23“The subway service and the bus service has become unreliable enough for people to stop using it. If people aren’t using it, there’s less money, and they have to keep raising fares without delivering better service.” I was a daily rider of the DC metro for 8 years. This is exactly what happened there. Reliability plummeted, then ridership, and all the while major fare increases.
Can ridership in NYC really plummet? It's not like everybody there has a car that they can take to work.
Re: NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', experts say
#24The article briefly mentioned competition from ride sharing services but I wonder to what extent it's made an impact. Anecdotally, given how cheap Uber and Lyft are in Manhattan (typically $4-5 for a shared ride), I often find myself opting for that instead of dealing with the hassles of the subway system. Both are unreliable when it comes to timeliness, as ride sharing services often take longer than expected (espec…
Yeah, I'd be very interested to learn about anything about the sensitivities of ridership to other external variables in general.
Looking at the article's linked presentation [1] and the MTA's most recent financial plan [2] it seems like all the hurt is coming from really huge declines in projected revenues - labor costs seem to be growing pretty reasonably but there's basically zero projected growth in fares. If someone can give me a layman's explanation of what "Capital and Other Reimbursements" is, which accounts for about a $500mm decline between 2019 and 20222, I'd be much obliged.
So I am curious how sensitive riders are to the increased service problems, how much that makes them switch out, to get some sense as to how much the signal improvements will help solve this problem. Also how much to a fare hike, which seems like the more straightforward answer in a vacuum (i.e. other than taxes or other government infusions). The MTA says in [1] that even "draconian service reductions would have a relatively small impact on the deficit."
[1] - http://web.mta.info/news/pdf/MTA-2019-Final-Proposed-Budget-... [2] - http://web.mta.info/news/pdf/MTA-2019-Final-Proposed-Budget-...
Re: NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', experts say
#25CLOSE THE SUBWAY MIDNIGHT-5AM and fix it Like most other civilized societies who have a functioning and well-maintained metro system. That is really all there is to it!
They are already doing this for several lines. The L wasn't running on weekends at all in November for them to do repairs.
NYC is unique in that there are LOTS of people whose working hours fall into that range and they rely on the subway. Just shutting down the whole system is unfeasible.
Re: NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', experts say
#26Not surprised. Not only are we lacking in physical infrastructure, but also technological infrastructure. I still don't understand how we do not have stations like in developed Asian countries like Japan or Hong Kong. The trains are "one" unit and the stations are doubled door with people at each station assisting (or ticketing..) you if needed. The train practically drive themselves. The conductor is there for emergency purposes. We didn't even have speed regulator installed until recently (and not all trains have them!) until a bunch of trains kept on crashing because of human error. We spend billions on ONE new station, but we can't invest a couple billion to fix the infrastructure.
Re: NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', experts say
#27“The subway service and the bus service has become unreliable enough for people to stop using it. If people aren’t using it, there’s less money, and they have to keep raising fares without delivering better service.” I was a daily rider of the DC metro for 8 years. This is exactly what happened there. Reliability plummeted, then ridership, and all the while major fare increases.
Can ridership in NYC really plummet? It's not like everybody there has a car that they can take to work.
Seems unlikely to plummet to ruinous levels. Ridership has risen by 800 million people since 1990, but there's fewer miles of track and only a few dozen cars. It seems that the system is strained well beyond its limits and that it might be possible that having fewer people use the subway might allow a chance to fix it? The issue seems to be largely administrative based on every article I've read. There needs to be an agreement by everyone on what how to move forward, and then for that plan to be implemented uninterrupted until its completion. But good luck with that since the mayor of NYC is basically a governor and the governors of NY always seem to butt heads with them.
Re: NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', experts say
#28Earlier quoted context omitted.
Both things can be true. 1) It probably does cost a lot of money to increase headways, run more trains, install positive train control, and otherwise upgrade and maintain tracks; but also 2) the MTA is a bloated, wasteful organization. I have no trouble holding both ideas in my head at once.
> Both things can be true I believe both are and will be. But to what degree? If it’s billions on bloat, then we need a cost cutter at the top (in addition to new funding).
It's part the MTA, part the city government as a whole, and part the state government. This feels like classic "too many cooks" bureaucracy where everyone knows THEY have the right answer and everyone else at the table is conspiring against their golden plan.
Re: NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', experts say
#29> Critics say it is bad service that is driving people away. One datapoint: I live in Rhode Island. Recently I attended a concert in Brooklyn. The obvious way to travel there was Amtrak to Penn Station and MTA (train or bus) to the final destination. However, I was warned that MTA service is unreliable. I decided to drive. Next time I probably won't go at all.
So, I haven't been to New York in a while, but I'm guessing that you were poorly informed. Usually when public transit networks start showing strain, it's during rush hours, when they're handling massive spikes in ridership. To give an example from Chicago: If you're trying to get on the train downtown at 6:00pm, you'll get on the next train, and probably get to sit in a seat. If you try to do it at 5:00pm, you stand…
> If you're trying to get on the train downtown at 6:00pm, you'll get on the next train, and probably get to sit in a seat. If you try to do it at 5:00pm, you stand a good chance of waiting 30 minutes for a train that you can even physically get on to.
What line are you describing? I take the L every day from downtown around 5 and I can reliably get on the first train and it will arrive in < 10 minutes (and there's a good chance I'll have a seat). If a train takes more than 10 minutes, it will almost certainly be packed full, but it will also almost certainly be followed by another nearly-empty train in ~1-2 minutes.
Re: NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', experts say
#30The article briefly mentioned competition from ride sharing services but I wonder to what extent it's made an impact. Anecdotally, given how cheap Uber and Lyft are in Manhattan (typically $4-5 for a shared ride), I often find myself opting for that instead of dealing with the hassles of the subway system. Both are unreliable when it comes to timeliness, as ride sharing services often take longer than expected (espec…
I think ride sharing services will be facing their own reckoning soon. With so many cars and the prices so low, it’s not sustainable for anyone to make a living. And the medallions were created to address both this problem and the problem of too many cars on the roads, which is also turning into a huge problem.