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The Fallacy Of Bimodal Returns

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Re: The Fallacy Of Bimodal Returns

#21
post #14
post #13

I'm confused - isn't this the wrong graph? Shouldn't we be looking at a histogram showing return multiple on the x axis and # of companies in that group on the Y? Or, alternatively, return decile on the x, and total return value on the Y - this would probably end up looking somewhat bimodal, right?

http://zachaysan.tumblr.com/post/1431828646/paul-graham-is-r...

Yes, I think there's a good deal of confusion about the appropriate axes - or at least talking past one another on these points.

If you take those data and throw them on a graph that looks more like Fred's, you get something that's downward sloping, but not nearly as smooth or severe as a power law curve: http://christinacacioppo.com/downloads/irrData.jpg

This isn't to say that one way of looking at this is better than another -- just that there seems to be two trains of thought right now.

Re: The Fallacy Of Bimodal Returns

#22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

one was sold in a fire sale the other was shut down neither did a bankuptcy

Sorry! I didn't know a better word for "stopped operating as an independent entity with some haste", and used "bankruptcy" without considering the possible implications for your business. (I see http://zachaysan.tumblr.com/post/1431828646/paul-graham-is-r... uses the same word, I don't hope I inspired him.) I'll try to choose my words more carefuly next time.

no worries

i just wanted to add to the discussion

you can call them bankrupt if you'd like

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