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How to Be Wrong (2016)

mathenchant.wordpress.com

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Re: How to Be Wrong (2016)

#21
post #8
post #3

vos Savant's article on this that lists highlights from the letters: http://marilynvossavant.com/game-show-problem/

The Monty Hall problem, as it is initially stated by vos Savant (and even in this link) is not well written. It make implicit assumptions about the host behavior. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem#Other_host_... If this had been clear from the beginning, there would not have been so much confusion about this problem. So in this case, vos Savant is also quite "wrong".

Vos Savant claimed that, of the people who explained their demurral, most were, in fact, basing their objections on the intended reading of the question.

Re: How to Be Wrong (2016)

#22
post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Weird that you would stop reading for that, and announce it here. As if there's some virtue in turning away in disgust.

Don't be snarky I'm offering a severe criticism of the writer, and sticking up for Semmelweis. I'm not sure what you're doing, besides tempting me to use the phrase 'virtue signalling' for the first time ever.

And article merely offered criticism of Semmelweis approach. Why is that disgusting? Is that untruth or he did not ended in that asylum? Should these topics be taboo?

There is really lesson there, you can alienate people enough so they end up not listening to reasonable parts of what you are pushing for.

Re: How to Be Wrong (2016)

#23

Oh man, I'm always glad to hear I'm not the only one who got the Monty Hall problem wrong. Here is my embarrassing MH story. Like Paul Erdős, I resorted to experimentation. Very much unlike Paul Erdős the computer program I wrote contained a one-off error in its PRNG that coincidentally confirmed the wrong result. I then spent a day or so on Usenet insisting stubbornly on the wrong solution until some very kind perso…

I embarrassed myself on usenet. Still remember it. Still can...feel it.

It was that problem that made me realize that although physicists deal with probabilities all the time, we don't really understand them.

Re: How to Be Wrong (2016)

#24

As a CS university lecturer, I acknowledge that there is little room for exploration, and the chance of being wrong, in most assessment schemes. Any mistake loses points and lowers the GPA, so nobody likes to make mistakes, however creative and interesting. Shame. The system cannot be easily revised because the students themselves oppose it. To them it seems intuitively unfair that somehow those who make mistakes may…

[deleted]

Re: How to Be Wrong (2016)

#25

Oh man, I'm always glad to hear I'm not the only one who got the Monty Hall problem wrong. Here is my embarrassing MH story. Like Paul Erdős, I resorted to experimentation. Very much unlike Paul Erdős the computer program I wrote contained a one-off error in its PRNG that coincidentally confirmed the wrong result. I then spent a day or so on Usenet insisting stubbornly on the wrong solution until some very kind perso…

> Lesson: If a bunch of smart and educated people tell you that you're wrong, then you're probably wrong.

Not always the case. As they say, science advances one funeral (of smart and educated people) at a time...

Re: How to Be Wrong (2016)

#26

Wow, I liked it (although none of the Monty Hall story was new to me) until the part where he was disgustingly dismissive and insulting to Semmelweis. Then I stopped reading. A less sympathetic account can hardly be imagined, I thought it was shameful.

It clearly assumes that the reader is aware of the background and simply states that it is "conceivable" that Semmelweis' attitude (whether warranted or not) may have negatively impacted his message. It seems like a sound point; that sort of thing does unfortunately happen.

It's interesting to draw a parallel between the author's argument that Semmelweis could have achieved more if he had been more respectful and "never antagonized so much of the medical establishment" to similar arguments continuously leveled at Martin Luther King, Jr. and other civil rights leaders. Despite this same argument being dredged up whenever there's a conflict between reform and inertia, history provides few examples of polite, demur, reformers who were careful to never antagonize the establishment.

It's also worth pointing out that the phrase "it's conceivable that" is a fairly cheap rhetorical trick: you can advance any ludicrous argument with no evidence or material support while forcing anyone who disagrees with you to produce proofs that are beyond all reasonable doubt. "It's conceivable that if the Nazis had won WWII, we would have colonies on the Moon by now." "It's conceivable that Yahoo's stock price will increase ten-fold in the next year." "It's conceivable that eating dog shit is the key to human immortality." Sure, it's conceivable but because it's neither plausible nor likely, and because no valid argument can be advanced to support the claim, it's not worth talking about, unless we're writing alternative history fiction. Yet authors often use this or similar phrases to propose arguments that they personally believe but know they cannot defend.

Re: How to Be Wrong (2016)

#27
post #17

> Sometimes something even simpler than the “I used to think so too but now I know better” criterion can be used to unmask bunk; if there’s a good story and one that’s disappointingly banal, usually the latter is the one that’s unfortunately true. A problem with this is that there are now increasingly more people who automatically opt for the "disappointingly banal" story even in cases when the good story is the actu…

> even in cases when the good story is the actually true one

I enjoy being a jerk and ruining a story as much as the next person, but you have to check your facts before doing something like that.

Are there any good examples you've come across of someone miscorrecting a "good" story to a banal one?

Re: How to Be Wrong (2016)

#28

Oh man, I'm always glad to hear I'm not the only one who got the Monty Hall problem wrong. Here is my embarrassing MH story. Like Paul Erdős, I resorted to experimentation. Very much unlike Paul Erdős the computer program I wrote contained a one-off error in its PRNG that coincidentally confirmed the wrong result. I then spent a day or so on Usenet insisting stubbornly on the wrong solution until some very kind perso…

As Richard Feynman says, "Some people say, How can you live without knowing? I do not know what they mean. I always live without knowing. That is easy. How you get to know is what I want to know."

I always try to weave some skepticism into my thought process, because you never know when some of your fundamental assumptions can be wrong.

Re: How to Be Wrong (2016)

#29
post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Don't be snarky I'm offering a severe criticism of the writer, and sticking up for Semmelweis. I'm not sure what you're doing, besides tempting me to use the phrase 'virtue signalling' for the first time ever.

And article merely offered criticism of Semmelweis approach. Why is that disgusting? Is that untruth or he did not ended in that asylum? Should these topics be taboo? There is really lesson there, you can alienate people enough so they end up not listening to reasonable parts of what you are pushing for.

>"Semmelweis [...] may have been responsible for the deaths of millions"

How does that not strike you as unnecessarily harsh and unwarranted? The statement reeks of viewing history through the modern lens, and the author doubles down on the next sentence suggesting that the scientific community would have somehow opened their eyes if only Semmelweis had either not been born or had been less of an asshole, or something.

Re: How to Be Wrong (2016)

#30
post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And article merely offered criticism of Semmelweis approach. Why is that disgusting? Is that untruth or he did not ended in that asylum? Should these topics be taboo? There is really lesson there, you can alienate people enough so they end up not listening to reasonable parts of what you are pushing for.

>"Semmelweis [...] may have been responsible for the deaths of millions" How does that not strike you as unnecessarily harsh and unwarranted? The statement reeks of viewing history through the modern lens, and the author doubles down on the next sentence suggesting that the scientific community would have somehow opened their eyes if only Semmelweis had either not been born or had been less of an asshole, or somethin…

"History through modern lens" seems to be a bit out of topic complaint.

The rest of paragraph explains why author thinks he was wrong. It would be interesting to read historical dispute, but your complaint seems to be less about different interpretation of history and more about making criticism of past personalities taboo.

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