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Building a Treasury Bond Ladder

terenz.io

21–30 of 109 posts

Re: Building a Treasury Bond Ladder

#21

This is something I've always wondered: Are treasury bond ladders strictly better than an equivalent treasury bond fund (say VFITX), because the interest rate risk can cause the bond fund to lose value while the treasury bond ladder is guaranteed to not lose value if held to maturation? Or is there some finance black magic that causes treasury bond ladders and treasury bond funds with the same effective maturity to h…

You are correct in rising interest rate environments where you believe the rates will continue to rise. With bond funds you can get the same yield as the ladder (interest payments) if you hold forever and never sell, but if you sell you may take a hit because the price has gone down. That doesn't happen with ladders since you always get paid out the face value.

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Re: Building a Treasury Bond Ladder

#22
post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> (except for broker fees which are usually quite small) Not quite. Commissions are charged on equities. Markups are charged on bonds. Markups are the difference between what the broker paid and how much a retail investor has to pay the broker and are much more opaque. They can be quite hefty. One just doesn't notice.

It depends. In my article I pointed out that with Fidelity there are no commissions or markups on treasuries on the secondary market. If there were, it would definitely change the calculus.

There's always the bid-ask spread.

Re: Building a Treasury Bond Ladder

#23
Great explanation. One of the things I consider, as someone who will eventually find enough resources to do this, is the separation of individual economic activity into risk-reward segment tiers.

The first being direct trading of time for money, wage-salary work. Second is service, which runs the gamut from contracting to consulting. Third is deal-making, which composes together individual service providers, the value-add being management, to create business vehicles. Fourth being business, the creation of a firm that employs human resources to scale up a product or service. Fifth is finance, which treats businesses as the economic units, either through trading financial instruments or through acquisition of entire businesses.

At what point does the risk-reward profile start to favor investment into the next level of economic activity? Is it worthwhile to try to skip over a tier, how does one think clearly about the endeavor?

For example, I don't see financial investment as worthwhile for the career individual except in two cases, home purchase, and retirement planning. It just doesn't provide enough returns, and the time investment involved in trading saps quickly assumes second job status.

What amount of capital should you have liquid before you can intelligibly make a foray into a particular tier? Such that you can throw money at problems rather than invest more time into understanding the situation? I don't need two careers, nobody needs two careers. Smart people can make forays into segments close to their careers and move up that way.

The mindset for rational and sane upward mobility seems to remain stubbornly out of reach, causing many honest, decent people to save up nest eggs which are then extremely vulnerable to scammers. If we had a body of information available that's better than the current personal finance advice, which seems geared for retirement planning, then we could cut down on a lot of tragic outcomes.

Re: Building a Treasury Bond Ladder

#24

This seems overly complicated. The market for bonds reflects the current inflation and interest conditions so selling bonds at any moment in time should on average be as profitable as holding them to maturity (except for broker fees which are usually quite small). I would just buy bonds and sell them if and when required.

I'm not sure that works universally. If you buy a bond with a 2% yield today that matures in 3 years and you decide to sell in 1 year instead and at that point the current rate is 3% the price you sell at will be lower than the price you paid so you won't make a 2% return in the first year...

Re: fees depends on your platform. Fidelity charges no fees or markups for treasuries but if your platform does it's something to consider in addition to bid/ask spread.

Re: Building a Treasury Bond Ladder

#25

This is something I've always wondered: Are treasury bond ladders strictly better than an equivalent treasury bond fund (say VFITX), because the interest rate risk can cause the bond fund to lose value while the treasury bond ladder is guaranteed to not lose value if held to maturation? Or is there some finance black magic that causes treasury bond ladders and treasury bond funds with the same effective maturity to h…

When you buy the bonds directly, you're choosing an explicit exit date and you know exactly what your return will be. When you buy a bond fund, your principal is going to be reinvested, so there's a risk of interest rates going up right before you sell. Some firms offer target maturity bond funds which will is the best of both worlds.

Liability matching is strictly more optimal. If you know when you need money you can take that portion of the risk out of the equation. On the other hand, with reinvested funds, you are paid to take the risk of interest rates going up and the lack of a fixed maturity date, by the possibility that interest rates might go down (the so-called roll-yield).

Re: Building a Treasury Bond Ladder

#27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It depends. In my article I pointed out that with Fidelity there are no commissions or markups on treasuries on the secondary market. If there were, it would definitely change the calculus.

There's always the bid-ask spread.

I mentioned it my post that and it's something to consider. With treasuries the spread is fairly tight.

Re: Building a Treasury Bond Ladder

#28
post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn’t that ignoring dividend payouts? This says it’s like -0.2% over the last 12 months including payouts vs -1.6%. No idea how accurate this is but it’s an important correction to just the price returns if you’re talking about holding the shares. https://www.etfreplay.com/chart_totalreturn.aspx

Yes that is ignoring dividend payouts, which for a bond (edit: bond fund) is a substantial part of the return.

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Re: Building a Treasury Bond Ladder

#29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree for long-term investments a fund might be better (ex. in a retirement account mixed with equity funds) but if you bought those bond funds in the past few years and sold them you might not have made much of a return. For example in the past 1 year the price of VGSH went from 60.83 to 59.87 so you lost over 1% on the price change which cancels out most of the interest yield. My point is that for short-term savi…

Isn’t that ignoring dividend payouts? This says it’s like -0.2% over the last 12 months including payouts vs -1.6%. No idea how accurate this is but it’s an important correction to just the price returns if you’re talking about holding the shares. https://www.etfreplay.com/chart_totalreturn.aspx

Yes, but the yield on the payouts is only around 2.5% with this fund so the price change has a massive effect on your overall return.
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