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Will the Model 3 make Tesla a real car company?

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Re: Will the Model 3 make Tesla a real car company?

#21

Post by bryanlarsen »

startupfounder wrote: post #15

Tesla isn't a car company, it's an energy company that is building the Model E on their energy platform. Reading their SEC 10-K[0] will show this. Solar is 55% of all new installations in the USA and Tesla is the leader in solar installations with SolarCity. $/watt installed is only going down with scale. Batteries are becoming the platform for transportation and Tesla owns 50% of the global manufacturing capacity. $…

Tesla owns 50% of the current global manufacturing capacity.

By 2021, that'll be a single digit percent due to new Chinese plants coming online.

Re: Will the Model 3 make Tesla a real car company?

#22

Post by pjc50 »

btian wrote: post #20
michaelt wrote: post #7

Tesla is running out of cash at a time when competition is heating up—Volkswagen, BMW, Daimler, and others plan to release dozens of electric car models. I wish competition would heat up. All I want is an all-electric EV with a 200+ mile range. You know what my options are? [1] A Tesla Model S or X, a Bolt EV/Ampera-e which isn't sold in my country [2], or a Tesla Model 3 which is barely shipping at all. I look forwa…

What's wrong with S and X? They're great cars.

The model S costs ninety thousand dollars. That's what's wrong with it.

Re: Will the Model 3 make Tesla a real car company?

#23

Post by IkmoIkmo »

baggachipz wrote: post #10
michaelt wrote: post #7

Tesla is running out of cash at a time when competition is heating up—Volkswagen, BMW, Daimler, and others plan to release dozens of electric car models. I wish competition would heat up. All I want is an all-electric EV with a 200+ mile range. You know what my options are? [1] A Tesla Model S or X, a Bolt EV/Ampera-e which isn't sold in my country [2], or a Tesla Model 3 which is barely shipping at all. I look forwa…

> a Tesla Model 3 which is barely shipping at all. Sorry, but no. One can be had in just a couple months at this point, and that lead time will dwindle quickly now that they've really ramped production.

Isn't production 20k a month and pre-orders >400k right now?

Doesn't seem like a couple a month right now and at all. Of course it could dwindle fast from here on out, but even if production doubles you'd still be looking at more than just a couple months. And you'd likely see pre-orders go up accordingly as well, I'm sure there's people who haven't pre-ordered because it makes no sense paying $1k to be on a 3 year waiting list, I wouldn't be surprised if waiting lists didn't budge nearly as much as production rates increase. And besides, doubling production isn't exactly trivial despite Tesla's erroneous claims in the past.

Re: Will the Model 3 make Tesla a real car company?

#24

Post by nicoburns »

btian wrote: post #20
michaelt wrote: post #7

Tesla is running out of cash at a time when competition is heating up—Volkswagen, BMW, Daimler, and others plan to release dozens of electric car models. I wish competition would heat up. All I want is an all-electric EV with a 200+ mile range. You know what my options are? [1] A Tesla Model S or X, a Bolt EV/Ampera-e which isn't sold in my country [2], or a Tesla Model 3 which is barely shipping at all. I look forwa…

What's wrong with S and X? They're great cars.

The price maybe? They're very expensive cars.

Re: Will the Model 3 make Tesla a real car company?

#25

Post by jcranmer »

startupfounder wrote: post #15

Tesla isn't a car company, it's an energy company that is building the Model E on their energy platform. Reading their SEC 10-K[0] will show this. Solar is 55% of all new installations in the USA and Tesla is the leader in solar installations with SolarCity. $/watt installed is only going down with scale. Batteries are becoming the platform for transportation and Tesla owns 50% of the global manufacturing capacity. $…

> Solar is 55% of all new installations in the USA and Tesla is the leader in solar installations with SolarCity. $/watt installed is only going down with scale.

Uh... from all the reporting I've seen, SolarCity isn't a major factor in solar installation, and certainly not the leader.

From the 10-K, Tesla installed 523MW of solar capacity in 2017. The US alone installed 10,608MW of solar capacity in 2017. Assuming that Tesla is exclusively looking at the US market, Tesla is responsible for 5% market share... that is nowhere near the leader.

Re: Will the Model 3 make Tesla a real car company?

#26

Post by pjc50 »

baybal2 wrote: post #3

I'm surprised. Chinese EV makers have aced the "nothing special" EV sedan niche under $30k and are popping them out non-stop. I guess, a part of "Apple disease" of around mid-20xx. Teslas are so distinct from mainline cars under the bonnet, that they can't source much components on open market, big part of manufacturing equipment have to be custom made, and they can't outsource anything. Chinese makers on other hands…

Do you have some example make/model for sale we can check out on the Internet?

Re: Will the Model 3 make Tesla a real car company?

#27

Post by michaelt »

sorenjan wrote: post #18
michaelt wrote: post #7

Tesla is running out of cash at a time when competition is heating up—Volkswagen, BMW, Daimler, and others plan to release dozens of electric car models. I wish competition would heat up. All I want is an all-electric EV with a 200+ mile range. You know what my options are? [1] A Tesla Model S or X, a Bolt EV/Ampera-e which isn't sold in my country [2], or a Tesla Model 3 which is barely shipping at all. I look forwa…

Jaguar i-Pace Volkswagen e-Golf Renault ZOE

  Jaguar i-Pace
...which hasn't been released yet.

  Volkswagen e-Golf
...which has an EPA range of "89 to 125 mi" [1]

  Renault ZOE
...which has a "likely EPA rating of perhaps 150 miles" [2] and "mandatory battery hire"

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkswagen_Golf#Volkswagen_e-G... [2] https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1111560_renault-zoe-sti...

Re: Will the Model 3 make Tesla a real car company?

#28

Post by sokoloff »

startupfounder wrote: post #15

Tesla isn't a car company, it's an energy company that is building the Model E on their energy platform. Reading their SEC 10-K[0] will show this. Solar is 55% of all new installations in the USA and Tesla is the leader in solar installations with SolarCity. $/watt installed is only going down with scale. Batteries are becoming the platform for transportation and Tesla owns 50% of the global manufacturing capacity. $…

> But if it's overvalued then short the stock!

To put the disclaimer up front: I have.

I think Tesla's going to run out of cash and be forced to raise on disadvantageous terms.

As a car company, they would be unbelievably overvalued. As an energy company, they would be wildly overvalued. As a solar company, they would be wildly overvalued. As a battery tech company, it's unclear, but probably still overvalued or wildly overvalued. I don't see how even that combination, along with the current and projected cash burn rate, lets them catch up to their current valuation let alone exceed it before needing to raise capital.

I love the tech, daily drive (a non-Tesla) electric, and hope EVs continue to grow in market share; I just don't see the company as being nearly worth the current market cap.

Re: Will the Model 3 make Tesla a real car company?

#29

Post by Retric »

pjc50 wrote: post #22
btian wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What's wrong with S and X? They're great cars.

The model S costs ninety thousand dollars . That's what's wrong with it.

Model S starts at 75k (before tax incentives) not ninety thousand dollars, though options can easily push it past 90k.

However, there are also significant savings from being electric. So, it's possible to afford one on a developer's 100k/year salary especially if you keep it for ~10 years.

Re: Will the Model 3 make Tesla a real car company?

#30

Post by michaelt »

btian wrote: post #20
michaelt wrote: post #7

Tesla is running out of cash at a time when competition is heating up—Volkswagen, BMW, Daimler, and others plan to release dozens of electric car models. I wish competition would heat up. All I want is an all-electric EV with a 200+ mile range. You know what my options are? [1] A Tesla Model S or X, a Bolt EV/Ampera-e which isn't sold in my country [2], or a Tesla Model 3 which is barely shipping at all. I look forwa…

What's wrong with S and X? They're great cars.

Nothing whatsoever. I simply dispute the claim that Tesla's competitors are hot on its heels.
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