If You Say Something Is “Likely,” How Likely Do People Think It Is? • Hacker News Board

Re: If You Say Something Is “Likely,” How Likely Do People Think It Is?

#21

Post by occamrazor » Wed, Jul 04, 2018, 4:47 PM UTC

will_brown wrote: post #3

When have this type of imprecise (sometimes subjective) verbiage in our legal standards: 1. Beyond a reasonable doubt 2. Perponderance of the evidence (“more likely than not”, which in theory is >50%) 3. Clear and convincing (which is somewhere in between the 2 above)

There is also a standard terminology for undesirable effects of medications:

- Very common: affects more than 1 in 10 people – ie the risk is 10% or higher

- Common: affects between 1 in 100 and 1 in 10 people – ie risk is 1% to 10%

- Uncommon: affects between 1 in 1,000 and 1 in 100 people – ie risk is 0.1% to 1%

- Rare: affects between 1 in 10,000 and 1 in 1,000 people – ie risk is 0.01% to 0.1%

-Very rare: affects less than 1 in 10,000 people – ie risk is less than 0.01% (This includes isolated reports)

Re: If You Say Something Is “Likely,” How Likely Do People Think It Is?

#22

Post by 1123581321 » Wed, Jul 04, 2018, 4:48 PM UTC

resu_nimda wrote: post #19

kashyapc wrote: post #6

That impreciseness is one reason why William Zinsser in his book, On Writing Well , argues: - "Get rid of the adjective-by-habit." - "Don't hedge your prose with little timidities. Good writing is lean and confident."

"Don't hedge your prose with little timidities. Good writing is lean and confident." This is a separate issue, and one I would disagree with. In fact I feel like this is a problematic attitude in our culture. Too many people overconfidently asserting their subjective viewpoints. Real life is full of nuance, gray area, second-guessing, and different perspectives; simple bold assertions usually don't hold water. David…

Why did you write your opinionated comment in a straightforward manner, then?

Re: If You Say Something Is “Likely,” How Likely Do People Think It Is?

#23

Post by dguo » Wed, Jul 04, 2018, 4:56 PM UTC

1123581321 wrote: post #22

resu_nimda wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Don't hedge your prose with little timidities. Good writing is lean and confident." This is a separate issue, and one I would disagree with. In fact I feel like this is a problematic attitude in our culture. Too many people overconfidently asserting their subjective viewpoints. Real life is full of nuance, gray area, second-guessing, and different perspectives; simple bold assertions usually don't hold water. David…

Why did you write your opinionated comment in a straightforward manner, then?

I don't think he/she did.

"I would disagree with" and "I feel" make it clear this is a personal opinion.

Also note the presence of "usually" in "simple bold assertions usually don't hold water."

Re: If You Say Something Is “Likely,” How Likely Do People Think It Is?

#24

Post by sp332 » Wed, Jul 04, 2018, 5:01 PM UTC

lifeisstillgood wrote: post #13

crispyambulance wrote: post #11

It depends on the context. Hillary Clinton had a >70% of winning the US presidential election according to the most responsible analyses (see 538: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ ). Most folks took 70% to mean that she would certainly win and were bitterly disappointed the morning after. On the other hand no sane person would (willingly) play Russian roulette with a 70% or even 5 of 6 cha…

That's probably the first time I have mapped Russian Roulette odds to percentages - and 83% chance used to look pretty good. Now I understand Robert Downey Jrs maths skills in Kiss Kiss Bang Bang.

Pascals' Wager: multiply the odds by the cost or benefit of each outcome. The higher the potential cost, the less good your odds look even if the percentage is the same.

Re: If You Say Something Is “Likely,” How Likely Do People Think It Is?

#25

Post by 1123581321 » Wed, Jul 04, 2018, 5:11 PM UTC

dguo wrote: post #23

1123581321 wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why did you write your opinionated comment in a straightforward manner, then?

I don't think he/she did. "I would disagree with" and "I feel" make it clear this is a personal opinion. Also note the presence of "usually" in "simple bold assertions usually don't hold water."

Yes, but the actual opinions run quite lean and are unqualified except for the “usually,” which the reader understands is placed to head off anecdotal contrary examples. The last one ends with a blunt insult. It’s certainly not DFW’s style of writing.

Re: If You Say Something Is “Likely,” How Likely Do People Think It Is?

#26

Post by cortic » Wed, Jul 04, 2018, 5:17 PM UTC

Its very likely, that's its not as likely as people likely think it is.

Re: If You Say Something Is “Likely,” How Likely Do People Think It Is?

#27

Post by roter » Wed, Jul 04, 2018, 5:18 PM UTC

For what it is worth, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change uses the following definitions[0]:

virtually certain: 99-100%

extremely likely: 95-100%

very likely: 90-100%

likely: 66-100%

about as likely as not: 33-66%

more likely than not: >50-100%

more unlikely than likely: 0-unlikely: 0-33%

very unlikely: 0-10%

extremely unlikely: 0-5%

exceptionally unlikely: 0-1%

[0]: https://ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/AR5_SYR_FINAL_...

Re: If You Say Something Is “Likely,” How Likely Do People Think It Is?

#28

Post by s-shellfish » Wed, Jul 04, 2018, 5:29 PM UTC

roter wrote: post #27

For what it is worth, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change uses the following definitions[0]: virtually certain: 99-100% extremely likely: 95-100% very likely: 90-100% likely: 66-100% about as likely as not: 33-66% more likely than not: >50-100% more unlikely than likely: 0- unlikely: 0-33% very unlikely: 0-10% extremely unlikely: 0-5% exceptionally unlikely: 0-1% [0]: https://ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/a…

So it follows a normal curve

Re: If You Say Something Is “Likely,” How Likely Do People Think It Is?

#29

Post by kashyapc » Wed, Jul 04, 2018, 5:56 PM UTC

resu_nimda wrote: post #19

kashyapc wrote: post #6

That impreciseness is one reason why William Zinsser in his book, On Writing Well , argues: - "Get rid of the adjective-by-habit." - "Don't hedge your prose with little timidities. Good writing is lean and confident."

"Don't hedge your prose with little timidities. Good writing is lean and confident." This is a separate issue, and one I would disagree with. In fact I feel like this is a problematic attitude in our culture. Too many people overconfidently asserting their subjective viewpoints. Real life is full of nuance, gray area, second-guessing, and different perspectives; simple bold assertions usually don't hold water. David…

True, I fully see your point of people imposing their subjective views over-confidently. It is a real problem. :-(

But I don't think Zinsser there means to get rid of all 'timidities'. The subtext my mind's eye read there was: don't overdo it. And he goes on to expand: "Every little qualifier whittles away some fraction of the reader's trust. Readers want a writer who believes in himself and in what he's saying. Don't diminish that trust."

For instance, I know smart people who often apologize for no reason, do excessive hedging, or start a request with an apology. It gets a bit annoying when I have to read or hear that everyday.

Re: If You Say Something Is “Likely,” How Likely Do People Think It Is?

#30

Post by kashyapc » Wed, Jul 04, 2018, 5:58 PM UTC

tgb wrote: post #15

kashyapc wrote: post #6

That impreciseness is one reason why William Zinsser in his book, On Writing Well , argues: - "Get rid of the adjective-by-habit." - "Don't hedge your prose with little timidities. Good writing is lean and confident."

Why not just say "with timidities"?

I interpreted it ("with little timidities") as a subtle joke.