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Canada using Excel function for immigration lottery

theglobeandmail.com

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Re: Canada using Excel function for immigration lottery

#21

Post by Trundle »

stormbrew wrote: post #12
remarkEon wrote: post #2

Why would a lottery be used at all for picking “winners” for immigration? On multiple levels that seems unfair and wrong.

If they were actually accepting all applications that meet the criteria, that would make first come first serve more fair, but there are quotas so they have to reject N-1 applications regardless of their application. Lottery systems are generally considered fairer than first come first serve because they don't advantage people who apply early. Especially in an immigration-related process where circumstances are likel…

Sure. Attach a price tag to it.

Re: Canada using Excel function for immigration lottery

#24

Post by FactolSarin »

jedberg wrote: post #9

All the other points about the unfairness makes sense, but the complaint about the poor random number generator does not make sense. This isn't a multistep process that the "adversary" has access to. It doesn't matter how bad the random number generator is or even if it is predictable. Sure you could bribe the person putting it into excel I suppose, but you could do that anyway and just have them switch numbers aroun…

Yeah, the human component is definitely a lot easier to attack. I'm curious how this is handled. Does the person doing the random number generation have anyone else standing over their shoulder at the time? There should definitely be witnesses and/or records of something this important.

And according to the article, I notice they said that only 10k make it past the lottery stage to the vetting stage. That seems like a pretty easy anti-immigration attack surface: just submit a lot of low quality requests to block out potential acceptances.

Re: Canada using Excel function for immigration lottery

#25

Post by forapurpose »

mistermann wrote: post #16
tialaramex wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The other options are to let everybody in or to suppose you already know the right criteria for who'd be the "best" immigrants. Hint: you don't. Genuinely random selection averts loads of really nasty problems in a system where you need to pick things even though humans tend to be sure some other approach would work better.

> The other options are to let everybody in or to suppose you already know the right criteria for who'd be the "best" immigrants. Hint: you don't. On an individual basis of course not, but you don't think in the aggregate better candidates can be chosen?

No. If the information is not about the individual, then it isn't useful in evaluating the individual. I know that sounds tautological, but it seems that obvious.

Re: Canada using Excel function for immigration lottery

#26

Post by [deleted] »

stormbrew wrote: post #12
remarkEon wrote: post #2

Why would a lottery be used at all for picking “winners” for immigration? On multiple levels that seems unfair and wrong.

If they were actually accepting all applications that meet the criteria, that would make first come first serve more fair, but there are quotas so they have to reject N-1 applications regardless of their application. Lottery systems are generally considered fairer than first come first serve because they don't advantage people who apply early. Especially in an immigration-related process where circumstances are likel…

[deleted]

Re: Canada using Excel function for immigration lottery

#27

Post by white-flame »

kevin_thibedeau wrote: post #23

“We stand by this randomized selection process as a sufficient means of equal opportunity for all who look to express an interest in sponsoring their parents and grandparents.” Ignorance is bliss. Math class is tough.

Random selection is literally equal opportunity.

Re: Canada using Excel function for immigration lottery

#28

Post by sigil »

jedberg wrote: post #9

All the other points about the unfairness makes sense, but the complaint about the poor random number generator does not make sense. This isn't a multistep process that the "adversary" has access to. It doesn't matter how bad the random number generator is or even if it is predictable. Sure you could bribe the person putting it into excel I suppose, but you could do that anyway and just have them switch numbers aroun…

You’re right that it seems unlikely an individual could exploit this, and it’s silly for the article to emphasize that threat.

However: “it may be that not everybody has exactly the same chance” — this might still be a concern.

Whether it really is depends on how large N is, what version of Excel they’re using, and how often they re-run the lottery.

Re: Canada using Excel function for immigration lottery

#29

Post by sverige »

threatofrain wrote: post #22

This is more of an amusing statement of how much of the world runs on Excel.

I used to use Excel's RNG to determine random winners for various drawings at work, including such momentous things as shift bid winners when there were more otherwise equally positioned people than available slots for a specific shift.

Excel is far and away the best product Microsoft has ever produced, and definitely one of the top five applications ever developed by anyone. It's one of the most useful and flexible tools for all kinds of practical analysis involving just about anything mathematical. Another example is that handful of us once used it, quite successfully, to manage a particular $500MM book of business for a very large insurance company.

In fact, the only people I've met who really hate Excel are developers who find they're not as necessary as they wish they were because regular managers are able to figure things out and make reasonably good decisions without their help or input because they have a good grasp of Excel.

Re: Canada using Excel function for immigration lottery

#30

Post by patmorgan23 »

neom wrote: post #6
remarkEon wrote: post #2

Why would a lottery be used at all for picking “winners” for immigration? On multiple levels that seems unfair and wrong.

I would imagine it's because there are a limited number of people that Canadians will allow to immigrate into their county?

Yep Canada has pretty tight immigration policy.
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