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Bernanke Says U.S. Economy Faces a ‘Wile E. Coyote’ Moment in 2020

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Re: Bernanke Says U.S. Economy Faces a ‘Wile E. Coyote’ Moment in 2020

#21
I have a question about the federal funds rate that I haven't ever had a good explanation for. It is: To what extent is the fed funds rate set to match market demand, and to what extent is it controlled completely independently of market demands? If anyone has a good answer, I would appreciate it a lot.

To flesh out my question a little further, let's say that the fed decides one day to change the fed funds rate from 1.75% to 2%. They put the bonds up for auction and find out that they were only able to auction off the allotment of bonds at an effective rate of 1.8%. Is this typical? Or is it usually the case that the bond buyers will quickly hoover up whatever rate they are given?

Maybe a more formal way to put it- is the elasticity of demand for these bonds low enough for the fed to have complete control over the fed funds rate such that they can set any interest rate they desire?

Re: Bernanke Says U.S. Economy Faces a ‘Wile E. Coyote’ Moment in 2020

#22

This is just another reminder to always have emergency funds in your bank account, not tied into the markets. Allows you to weather the storm, until things correct themselves.

How does savings in a bank account help you weather inflation?

The poster's sentiment is correct is saying that it's a good idea to have low-risk resources available as a safety net. However I'd say having physical things like items you know you'll need in the future, or food storage, would be more valuable than having cash. Inflation wouldn't hurt the value of a computer or food you already own. In the other hand, I would imagine investing in gold would be a good idea as well.

Re: Bernanke Says U.S. Economy Faces a ‘Wile E. Coyote’ Moment in 2020

#23
post #14
post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The buisness cycle is closer to the truth than calling economic growth a random walk. You get feedback loops which prevent a steady state.

You’re probably basing that on data benefiting from a supervisory political institution. If that data exist.

If you're about to argue that there wouldn't be business cycles or depressions if we managed to overthrow capitalism, I don't think people are going to disagree with you lol

Re: Bernanke Says U.S. Economy Faces a ‘Wile E. Coyote’ Moment in 2020

#25
The Fed has been used as a stop gap to fix incompetent/malicious policies driven by political actors. The reality is that central banks can only do so much, and Congress and others are leading the nation off a cliff to pursue short term political goals.

Beating the other team in the short term is seen as more important than the long term health of the nation. You can see this play out in the tax cut, deficit spending and many other examples.

> Who cares if the world explodes in 6 years? I need to be reelected in 2.

Re: Bernanke Says U.S. Economy Faces a ‘Wile E. Coyote’ Moment in 2020

#27
post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How does savings in a bank account help you weather inflation?

The poster's sentiment is correct is saying that it's a good idea to have low-risk resources available as a safety net. However I'd say having physical things like items you know you'll need in the future, or food storage, would be more valuable than having cash. Inflation wouldn't hurt the value of a computer or food you already own. In the other hand, I would imagine investing in gold would be a good idea as well.

I always think of it in disaster tiers.

Market slowdown, you'll want your bonds.

Recession, you'll want your cash.

Depression, you'll want gold and barterable goods.

Economic collapse or apocalypse, you'll want food, medicine, and alcohol (possibly the most barterable good, also delicious).

In any case anybody reading this in a major city faces non zero likelihood of disaster (take your pick for your city, hurricane, earthquake, tornado, terrorist attack, war) and should be stockpiling 3 liters of water per person in the house per day you want to be able to survive on your own, alongside 2k calories of food, trash bags, etc. I say have a stocked liquor cabinet as well because my experience in Backcountry many week hikes has taught me you can get nearly anything in return for good liquor :)

I've also heard strong arguments for the stockpiling of pornography and certain chemicals that are valuable in tbe production of medicine or just used as general reagents, don't know too much about chemical stockpiling though.

Careful for the prepper rabbit hole, it runs so very deep ;)

Re: Bernanke Says U.S. Economy Faces a ‘Wile E. Coyote’ Moment in 2020

#30

I have a question about the federal funds rate that I haven't ever had a good explanation for. It is: To what extent is the fed funds rate set to match market demand, and to what extent is it controlled completely independently of market demands? If anyone has a good answer, I would appreciate it a lot. To flesh out my question a little further, let's say that the fed decides one day to change the fed funds rate from…

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bond_vigilante
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