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Using Countdown Clock Data to Understand the New York City Subway

toddwschneider.com

21–30 of 66 posts

Re: Using Countdown Clock Data to Understand the New York City Subway

#21
post #3

>The L train is also the only line that uses modern >communications-based train control (CBTC), which allows >trains to operate in a more automated fashion. It's not "more automated fashion", it's fully automated, LIDAR and all - they are fully autonomous. L trains have operators because of unions throwing a fit and most of the times they sit there twiddling their thumbs.

I don't mind paying a man to sit at the head of the train even if they're autonomous. I also don't believe making all the lines CBTC are going to solve the core issues of breakdowns outside of an ancient signaling system. Some of the lines in NYC are still using R32 cars[1]. They were built in 1965 that is ludicrous. Granted, they were refurbished in the late 80s but that's still 30 years ago. That said most of the l…

It's not a question of whether "one of the richest cities on the planet" can "fund serious upgrades." It's how much money are New Yorkers willing to throw into a system where it takes several times as much money to do the same thing as other countries? https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/28/nyregion/new-york-subway-....

New York is rich, but so is London. Based on that wealth, there is a certain amount of money New Yorkers are willing to pay for subway service. If it costs twice as much to do the same thing, half as much service will get purchased. (Indeed, it's worse. Crappier subway service reduces demand, which decreases the money available to fund it.)

Costs are the fundamental problem with the MTA (and D.C.'s WMATA), and those are union problems, not management problems. If it cost Lenovo twice as much to build the same laptop as Acer, Lenovo would simply cease to exist. Transit systems generally cannot go bankrupt for political reasons, but they can decline to a state of government-funded life support where nobody uses them except people who have no other choice. (See, e.g., the transit systems in most cities outside NYC/Chicago/DC/Boston). Consider:

> France’s unions are powerful, but Mr. Probst said they did not control project staffing. Isabelle Brochard of RATP, a state-owned company that operates the Paris Metro and is coordinating the Line 14 project, estimated there were 200 total workers on the job, each earning $60 per hour. The Second Avenue subway project employed about 700 workers, many making double that (although that included health insurance).

This is a large-scale problem in the U.S. Our public services suck, which means that they turn into safety nets instead of something that are broadly used by the population. In turn, people have limited willingness to fund them (because people naturally are less willing to spend money on safety nets versus something they also use and benefit from). Unions aren't the only reason for our public services sucking, but to the extent they drive costs out of alignment with what is the case in other countries, they're a big part of the problem. If you can buy less service with the same amount of investment, that's a problem.

One of the things that's happened in the last 30 years that nobody talks about is that Europe became far more market oriented, and their unions adapted. Anti-union rhetoric in the U.S. yielded a very different result, with most private unions dying out, and the public sector unions that survived remaining a bulwark of the "old way" of doing things.

Re: Using Countdown Clock Data to Understand the New York City Subway

#22
post #10

The author does briefly mention this, but the countdown clocks are not every accurate. I often see a wait time of "3 min" and then it's there in the next 10 seconds. Or you can see the opposite where it just hangs on "3 min" for a minute or two and was really 5 minutes away. In reality it should just report at its accuracy, e.g., " PS, why do people stick their necks over the tracks to look if a train is coming?

> PS, why do people stick their necks over the tracks to look if a train is coming?

You can often see further down the tunnel from an angle close to the tracks than you can standing behind the yellow strip. If someone ahead of you on the platform is already doing this, then they're probably blocking your view down the tunnel, so you have to lean to see past them. It seems pretty silly, but sometimes it's useful, for example, in determining whether the express or local will come first, and you can then switch platforms at the last minute if it makes sense for you.

If countdown timers were reliable and accurate, fewer people would feel compelled to lean out.

Re: Using Countdown Clock Data to Understand the New York City Subway

#23
post #21
post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't mind paying a man to sit at the head of the train even if they're autonomous. I also don't believe making all the lines CBTC are going to solve the core issues of breakdowns outside of an ancient signaling system. Some of the lines in NYC are still using R32 cars[1]. They were built in 1965 that is ludicrous. Granted, they were refurbished in the late 80s but that's still 30 years ago. That said most of the l…

It's not a question of whether "one of the richest cities on the planet" can "fund serious upgrades." It's how much money are New Yorkers willing to throw into a system where it takes several times as much money to do the same thing as other countries? https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/28/nyregion/new-york-subway-... . New York is rich, but so is London. Based on that wealth, there is a certain amount of money New York…

>Costs are the fundamental problem with the MTA (and D.C.'s WMATA), and those are union problems, not management problems.

Managerial corruption causing cost overruns like this does not even tangentially involve unions:

"The New York City subway system has continued to deteriorate, rankled by massive delays, misspent funds, and widespread claims of corruption. On Friday, the feds confirmed the corruption part by securing a 46 month sentence for a former employee who promised subway contractors future work in return for bribes."

https://jalopnik.com/ill-be-damned-feds-indict-new-york-city...

Re: Using Countdown Clock Data to Understand the New York City Subway

#24
post #10

The author does briefly mention this, but the countdown clocks are not every accurate. I often see a wait time of "3 min" and then it's there in the next 10 seconds. Or you can see the opposite where it just hangs on "3 min" for a minute or two and was really 5 minutes away. In reality it should just report at its accuracy, e.g., " PS, why do people stick their necks over the tracks to look if a train is coming?

Also, many days the system is outright not running at all, at least as far as displaying arrival times in the station, even on the L. This seems to be the case many weekends for some reason.

Re: Using Countdown Clock Data to Understand the New York City Subway

#25
post #3

>The L train is also the only line that uses modern >communications-based train control (CBTC), which allows >trains to operate in a more automated fashion. It's not "more automated fashion", it's fully automated, LIDAR and all - they are fully autonomous. L trains have operators because of unions throwing a fit and most of the times they sit there twiddling their thumbs.

I don't mind paying a man to sit at the head of the train even if they're autonomous. I also don't believe making all the lines CBTC are going to solve the core issues of breakdowns outside of an ancient signaling system. Some of the lines in NYC are still using R32 cars[1]. They were built in 1965 that is ludicrous. Granted, they were refurbished in the late 80s but that's still 30 years ago. That said most of the l…

1. Each employee on a train costs well over $100k/year: going from 2 employees per train (driver & conductor) to 1 would save on the order of $200+ million dollars a year.

2. Wifi in stations is entirely paid for by the advertising portal, so that upgrade was "free" for the MTA.

Re: Using Countdown Clock Data to Understand the New York City Subway

#26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

...if the train is on happy path. And believe me, there are some really ugly unhappy paths where underground passenger rail is concerned; we definitely have no technology autonomous enough for that. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_London_Underground_acc...

A system so safe, that almost all of the accidents in the last 50 years say "no serious injuries" or even "no injuries". One driver was killed in 1968, another in 1984, someone broken a leg in 2003, and a passenger in 2004 dragged along a platform. (The accident in 1975 was with a mainline rail train, not a metro train, I'm not sure why it's on the list.)

The line to Moorgate was owned by the Metropolitan Railway, which became part of the amalgamated London Passenger Transport Board, using the Underground brand, and branded as part of the Northern Line.

The line up to Holloway Junction (where it joins the ECML) was owned and maintained as part of the Underground, operated by Underground drivers and Underground owned trains, and it was only transferred near the end of 1975 to British Rail.

Perhaps most tellingly, it was London Underground 1938 Stock involved in the 1975 crash.

Re: Using Countdown Clock Data to Understand the New York City Subway

#27
post #21
post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't mind paying a man to sit at the head of the train even if they're autonomous. I also don't believe making all the lines CBTC are going to solve the core issues of breakdowns outside of an ancient signaling system. Some of the lines in NYC are still using R32 cars[1]. They were built in 1965 that is ludicrous. Granted, they were refurbished in the late 80s but that's still 30 years ago. That said most of the l…

It's not a question of whether "one of the richest cities on the planet" can "fund serious upgrades." It's how much money are New Yorkers willing to throw into a system where it takes several times as much money to do the same thing as other countries? https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/28/nyregion/new-york-subway-... . New York is rich, but so is London. Based on that wealth, there is a certain amount of money New York…

> Our public services suck, which means that they turn into safety nets instead of something that are broadly used by the population.

If roads, trains, schools, water, electricity, libraries, etc. don't count as widely used, what exactly does?

Re: Using Countdown Clock Data to Understand the New York City Subway

#28
post #3

>The L train is also the only line that uses modern >communications-based train control (CBTC), which allows >trains to operate in a more automated fashion. It's not "more automated fashion", it's fully automated, LIDAR and all - they are fully autonomous. L trains have operators because of unions throwing a fit and most of the times they sit there twiddling their thumbs.

I don't mind paying a man to sit at the head of the train even if they're autonomous. I also don't believe making all the lines CBTC are going to solve the core issues of breakdowns outside of an ancient signaling system. Some of the lines in NYC are still using R32 cars[1]. They were built in 1965 that is ludicrous. Granted, they were refurbished in the late 80s but that's still 30 years ago. That said most of the l…

As a person living in Osaka, Japan right now, I always find it funny reading people comment on NYC Subway. Not your specifically, but in general.

In Osaka, Hankyu Railway (granted, a commuter train operator, but most if not all commuter trains service in Japan runs like subway) still runs multiple 3300 series, manufactured in 1969. They (the 3300's) actually also run into the Osaka Metro system, and you cannot really tell it's built almost 50 years ago.

And CTBC... Most of the newslet says that one of the problem with old system is that it cannot accurately tell where the train is... Well, I know NYC signalling system is ancient, but not being able to tell accurately where the train is IS NOT the problem. Most of the Japanese lines (including various subways) still run on block system (though sometime with a block length of just 100m). Communication-based system is in place on some line, though, but mostly for lightly-traffic line to save on signalling equipment cost.

Re: Using Countdown Clock Data to Understand the New York City Subway

#29

>The L train is also the only line that uses modern >communications-based train control (CBTC), which allows >trains to operate in a more automated fashion. It's not "more automated fashion", it's fully automated, LIDAR and all - they are fully autonomous. L trains have operators because of unions throwing a fit and most of the times they sit there twiddling their thumbs.

>L trains have operators because of unions throwing a fit and most of the times they sit there twiddling their thumbs.

rentiers, if you will

Re: Using Countdown Clock Data to Understand the New York City Subway

#30
post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not a question of whether "one of the richest cities on the planet" can "fund serious upgrades." It's how much money are New Yorkers willing to throw into a system where it takes several times as much money to do the same thing as other countries? https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/28/nyregion/new-york-subway-... . New York is rich, but so is London. Based on that wealth, there is a certain amount of money New York…

>Costs are the fundamental problem with the MTA (and D.C.'s WMATA), and those are union problems, not management problems. Managerial corruption causing cost overruns like this does not even tangentially involve unions: "The New York City subway system has continued to deteriorate, rankled by massive delays, misspent funds, and widespread claims of corruption. On Friday, the feds confirmed the corruption part by secu…

What is the acale of that in comparison to paying more worksrs than you need more money than you need to? Most of MTA’s expenses are labor costs. Contracting corruption is bad and illegal, but is not what’s driving the costs.
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