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Markets are efficient if and only if P = NP (2010)

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21–30 of 201 posts

Re: Markets are efficient if and only if P = NP (2010)

#21

While this is a fun, the title is a little strong. There are three limitations (whuch apply to many papers about P=NP). 1. The market could still be efficient, because the situations which must arise to cause P vs NP problems are very complicated. In particular thry require very expensive indivisible things to buy, whereas in most situations we can treat things like shares as continuous with only a small error. 2. Ma…

1. in reality, nothing ever is continuous, and those small errors are black swans. 2. PN!=P not because we can't solve it, but because it is impossible to solve, because there are more possible solutions than space we can use to model them. (oversimplified, i know) 3. que?

Re: Markets are efficient if and only if P = NP (2010)

#22
Interesting topic and thought experiment. But this theory is not very fleshed out and not at all convincing (especially the part regarding using an existing efficient market to perform computation for anything other than price of the underlying instrument, i.e. what the computation is intended for). The following quote sums up how the author makes very open ended assumptions:

> So what should the market do? If it is truly efficient, and there exists some way to execute all of those separate OCO orders in such a way that an overall profit is guaranteed, including taking into account the larger transactions costs from executing more orders, then the market, by its assumed efficiency, ought to be able to find a way to do so. In other words, the market allows us to compute in polynomial time the solution to an arbitrary 3-SAT problem.

In reality, most financial markets are pretty efficient but none are perfectly efficient -- if they were perfectly efficient, it would imply not only perfectly efficient trading systems and an inability to get an 'edge' on the market, but also perfectly efficient market systems, which are limited by technology, conventions, and regulations (for example, significant inefficiencies arise in US securities from not being open all the time, with very little liquidity still available in the 'after hours' markets). To achieve even 'pretty good' efficiency requires significant energy, and I'm not sure I understand how the author can imply that the energy used in the past to calculate the current price is equivalent to the energy to verify the current price. As a trader, I can tell you that most market participants do not care to verify past calculations of the current price; they only care about the future price, and will generate an action from the differential between the predicted price and the current price.

Re: Markets are efficient if and only if P = NP (2010)

#23
post #22

Interesting topic and thought experiment. But this theory is not very fleshed out and not at all convincing (especially the part regarding using an existing efficient market to perform computation for anything other than price of the underlying instrument, i.e. what the computation is intended for). The following quote sums up how the author makes very open ended assumptions: > So what should the market do? If it is…

> I'm not sure I understand the author's implication that the energy used in the past to calculate the current price is equivalent to the energy to verify the current price.

That's just what P = NP means: the cost to verify a solution is the same as the cost of finding one.

Re: Markets are efficient if and only if P = NP (2010)

#26

Before people get too carried away criticising markets, check this quote from the paper. > The results of this paper should not be interpreted as support for government intervention into the market; on the contrary, the fact that market efficiency and computational efficiency are linked suggests that government should no more intervene in the market or regulate market participants than it should intervene in computat…

Sure, but if what the author is saying is true, then it implies that there is nothing special about markets, and a system involving an equal number of humans and computers following some other optimization algorithm could achieve similar results in efficiency. And if a government sponsored and modified such an algorithm in an attempt to optimize for equality (second only to efficiency of usage), such a system could b…

1. I don't think anyone has any illusions that markets are in a mathematical sense optimal. They are a distributed process with no global knowledge - it would be strange if they somehow achieved global optimality.

The real question is how efficient are they.

2. If you're serious about

> if a government sponsored and modified such an algorithm in an attempt to optimize for equality (second only to efficiency of usage), such a system could be an effective socialism.

The big problems you have to overcome are probably the Economic Calculation Problem [0] and the Principal Agent Problem [1]. I have yet to see any reasonable solutions proposed.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_calculation_problem [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Principal%E2%80%93agent_proble...

Re: Markets are efficient if and only if P = NP (2010)

#27
post #7
post #2

But markets are not efficient ...

weak-form efficiency in markets means something special.

Not really. It means that the market incorporates all past data.

This paper is entertaining but it depends on the assumption that computing power grows exponentially forever and will eventually be able to solve all P problems at negligible cost. That assumption is clearly not justified.

And the belief that any market perfectly incorporates data, not a single point off in any stock, is basically a strawman anyway.

Re: Markets are efficient if and only if P = NP (2010)

#29
post #14

I'm amazed that someone has written a paper that considers computational complexity that isn't written in LaTeX...

While I'm not a fan of everything LaTeX with default layouts, this Word doc isn't very readable and the default design isn't helping.

Re: Markets are efficient if and only if P = NP (2010)

#30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, but if what the author is saying is true, then it implies that there is nothing special about markets, and a system involving an equal number of humans and computers following some other optimization algorithm could achieve similar results in efficiency. And if a government sponsored and modified such an algorithm in an attempt to optimize for equality (second only to efficiency of usage), such a system could b…

1. I don't think anyone has any illusions that markets are in a mathematical sense optimal. They are a distributed process with no global knowledge - it would be strange if they somehow achieved global optimality. The real question is how efficient are they. 2. If you're serious about > if a government sponsored and modified such an algorithm in an attempt to optimize for equality (second only to efficiency of usage)…

On 1: That's exactly the point of this paper. That's what the EMH claims, and what this paper is linking to P=NP. If this paper is correct then markets are not violations of P=NP, and a lot of economists are wrong (or P=NP).

On 2: My answer to both problems (any problems) is Turing equivalence. If one algorithm of people and computers can solve the problem, then so can another one with the same resources. And given our knowledge of how different optimization algorithms can give results biased in different ways, it should be possible to find an algorithm that biases better towards equality than our current one.

But again that's a theoretical justification, which is why it's an interesting avenue of further research. I don't have any concrete answers because that would require research on the problem I haven't (and don't have the resources to) conduct(ed). And to make it quite clear, it's entirely possible the answer of this research could be markets are always the best (which would be disappointing, but possible), but it seems more likely that we would discover some new systems.

Edit: The economic calculation problem is the EMH rephrased (which this paper is making clear is a valid criticism only if P=NP). So that problem in specific is invalidated by this paper.

Edit 2: The principle agent problem is solved by the "equal number of people" component. And the fact that markets often involve selling other people's resources through their governments and other representatives anyway (see Saudi Arabia selling oil to enrich only their leaders on our open markets; while they use slaves), so it's not like markets are somehow a perfect solution to this problem as they currently stand.

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