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Assessing Shooting Performance in NBA and NCAA Basketball

toddwschneider.com

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Re: Assessing Shooting Performance in NBA and NCAA Basketball

#21

Post by jjuel »

neovive wrote: post #9

As a basketball fan, I love this kind of analysis. As mentioned in the article, I think the defensive skill of NBA players is a big reason for the differences in accuracy within six feet. For many NBA players, it's much easier to take a 7-12 foot shot than to challenge the taller/stronger players that defend closer to the rim. On average, the "rim defenders" in college aren't as strong, making it easier to score on d…

I would be curious to see the same stats in college about points per shot based on distance to hoop and distance to closest defender like he has for the NBA. I would guess there are more defensive breakdowns in college leading to more open layups or close range shots. Percentage by itself doesn't tell the whole story. Would need how closely guarded someone is, time in the game, time in the shot clock, etc. to get a true reading on what is really going on with the shooting percentages.

Re: Assessing Shooting Performance in NBA and NCAA Basketball

#22

Post by m_ke »

rajacombinator wrote: post #19
samfisher83 wrote: post #16

Looking at the data a post player less than 3 feet should from the goal should be more efficient than a 3 pointer based on points per shot, but post play is pretty frowned down upon now.

I’d say it’s more like defense is frowned upon ever since the Lebron euroflop era began. No need to post up when you can just bull rush the rim and get and an and-one every play.

https://www.sportingcharts.com/dictionary/nba/hand-checking....

Re: Assessing Shooting Performance in NBA and NCAA Basketball

#23

Post by m_ke »

m_ke wrote: post #14
neovive wrote: post #9

As a basketball fan, I love this kind of analysis. As mentioned in the article, I think the defensive skill of NBA players is a big reason for the differences in accuracy within six feet. For many NBA players, it's much easier to take a 7-12 foot shot than to challenge the taller/stronger players that defend closer to the rim. On average, the "rim defenders" in college aren't as strong, making it easier to score on d…

Zone defense and the 3 seconds rule have much more to do with this. Zone is much more common in college and seems to explain the stats because 2-3 gives up the high post and 3s on the wing to protect the paint.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-zone-defenses-are-taking-ov...

Re: Assessing Shooting Performance in NBA and NCAA Basketball

#24

Post by awad »

m_ke wrote: post #14
neovive wrote: post #9

As a basketball fan, I love this kind of analysis. As mentioned in the article, I think the defensive skill of NBA players is a big reason for the differences in accuracy within six feet. For many NBA players, it's much easier to take a 7-12 foot shot than to challenge the taller/stronger players that defend closer to the rim. On average, the "rim defenders" in college aren't as strong, making it easier to score on d…

Zone defense and the 3 seconds rule have much more to do with this. Zone is much more common in college and seems to explain the stats because 2-3 gives up the high post and 3s on the wing to protect the paint.

It's harder to run zone in the NBA for many reasons, not the least of which even a bad NBA shooter is a pretty good shooter when they have room to get a shot off. Given the shot-heavy nature of today's game, you'd be hard-pressed to pull off zone against a good chunk of the league.

Re: Assessing Shooting Performance in NBA and NCAA Basketball

#25

Post by m_ke »

awad wrote: post #24
m_ke wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Zone defense and the 3 seconds rule have much more to do with this. Zone is much more common in college and seems to explain the stats because 2-3 gives up the high post and 3s on the wing to protect the paint.

It's harder to run zone in the NBA for many reasons, not the least of which even a bad NBA shooter is a pretty good shooter when they have room to get a shot off. Given the shot-heavy nature of today's game, you'd be hard-pressed to pull off zone against a good chunk of the league.

Yes, I just stated the fact that zone defense is much more common in college basketball and that it might explain the disparity in shooting percentages at different distances.

Zone was forbidden in the NBA for a long time and, as you said, even now it doesn't make much sense to run it at this level because of talent, 3 seconds rule and the distance of the 3 point line.

Re: Assessing Shooting Performance in NBA and NCAA Basketball

#26

Post by yalogin »

exogeny wrote: post #2

More than anything else, this article tells how smart the Rockets are and how dumb the Pacers are. Also, FWIW, Sportradar tracks location with an iPad application that they either use in-arena via a trained scorer or inside of their HQ in Minnesota.

I can see why the rockets are smart but why are the pacers dumb? They shoot a lot of midrange shots but they are a lot lot better than what people expected them to be. So why can’t we say they maximized their potential by playing to heir strengths?
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