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How not to be a crank: rules for not being a science-dick

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Re: How not to be a crank: rules for not being a science-dick

#21
post #4

All of these are extremely important! Two life skills: * If you are without a doubt, you are wrong If you can't fathom the other side and where they're coming from, you, are in fact, biased beyond listening to facts, and are likely wrong. * Words matter As my grandma said, "If you don't have anything nice to say don't say anything at all."

I disagree with the first statement. To me, it invokes concepts of relativism.

Certainty in actions, when well prepared, has a magical and transformative effect on things.

I am willing to entertain thought experiments about how I can be wrong but I know I am not about certain ideas and philosophies.

Re: How not to be a crank: rules for not being a science-dick

#22
A certain amount of this boils down to, "Don't be mentally ill or have an otherwise disordered mind." I've known people who were the sort of crank he's talking about, and they were generally — though not always — unhealthily isolated people who had difficulties managing their personal lives. Most had a tenuous grasp on reality, especially the motivations of other people.

There are cranks who could respond to these rules, but I believe (though I am not a mental-health professional) that many would be unable to.

Re: How not to be a crank: rules for not being a science-dick

#23
post #15
post #4

All of these are extremely important! Two life skills: * If you are without a doubt, you are wrong If you can't fathom the other side and where they're coming from, you, are in fact, biased beyond listening to facts, and are likely wrong. * Words matter As my grandma said, "If you don't have anything nice to say don't say anything at all."

I am without a doubt that white nationalists and Nazis are wrong. Am I supposed to question myself here? Supposed to assume I'm wrong? Your line of thinking is very dangerous and not safe, it enables very bad people by making good people assume they are terrible people themselves.

Only you can stop the very dangerous people!

Consider the fact that you are a byproduct of the endless programming and propaganda behind the War on Terror. If you have no doubts on that subject, YOU are wrong.

Re: How not to be a crank: rules for not being a science-dick

#24
post #4

All of these are extremely important! Two life skills: * If you are without a doubt, you are wrong If you can't fathom the other side and where they're coming from, you, are in fact, biased beyond listening to facts, and are likely wrong. * Words matter As my grandma said, "If you don't have anything nice to say don't say anything at all."

I disagree with the first statement. To me, it invokes concepts of relativism. Certainty in actions, when well prepared, has a magical and transformative effect on things. I am willing to entertain thought experiments about how I can be wrong but I know I am not about certain ideas and philosophies.

> I know I am not about certain ideas and philosophies

Can you give some examples?

Re: How not to be a crank: rules for not being a science-dick

#25
post #9
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

how strongly do you believe that first principle?

My viewpoint on number one is simple: I'm always wrong Easier to move forward with that default assumption and try to prove I'm not as wrong as I thought and that "right" is the wrong attitude to hold.

How do you improve your knowledge if every path forward is still wrong?

(In ML terms, how do you apply gradient descent if every path forward is up?)

Re: How not to be a crank: rules for not being a science-dick

#26
I've also investigated bad science papers before, and blogged about it a few times. There's a lot out there. There's nothing special about getting a PhD that makes you politically neutral or morally superior. The temptation to abuse maths to make your personal views seem "scientific" is irresistible for too many. My last public attempt:

https://blog.plan99.net/did-russian-bots-impact-brexit-ad66f...

I feel some sympathy with fellow Brit Nick Brown after reading this story about his work:

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2014/jan/19/mathematics-...

(as an aside, totally unsurprised the guy works in computing, developing an intolerance for abuse of logic is a job hazard.)

But I don't know if this perspective is helpful to be honest. "Don't be a dick" is both quite an obvious principle and also rather useless when criticising people's work: some of the authors, and some of the people who want to believe the research is true, will inevitably view any criticism as being dickish. This is doubly true if you take the obvious next step and speculate as to whether the issues are mere oversights or (far more commonly, in my view) deliberate deceptions intended to further an agenda.

One problem is that genuine, honest mistakes tend to get picked up already by the existing peer review process. The really bad papers that get through are usually bad in support of some wider social mission, usually leading the public to some policy goal, and they don't get struck down because the peer reviewers share the same goals. Thus pointing out mistakes has no effect, because they already knew the science was bad. The only thing that can work is pointing out to the people who they're trying to influence that something has gone wrong.

There is a responsibility to be harsh in these cases. Failing to do so can simply let the issues fester and compound. From the Guardian article on Brown:

There were several psychologists, versed in non-linear dynamics, who smelt something fishy about the maths in the published paper. Stephen Guastello, from Marquette University, wrote a note of mild complaint to American Psychologist, which it chose not to publish because "there wasn't enough interest in the article". Guastello feels now that he should have been more forceful in his opinions. "In retrospect," he says, "I see how I could have been more clearly negative and less supportive of what looked like an article that could move the field forward if someone would follow up with some strong empirical work."

The story describes Brown's first debunking of a paper that used lots of clever looking math to reach obviously absurd conclusions about psychology. One author of the paper admitted that she had never understood the maths and the person who did create the maths (Losada) has refused to ever respond to the debunking in any way. All the reviewers were successfully intimidated by the maths and were unwilling to criticise it, allowing Losada to get away with it:

John Gottman, a leading authority in the psychology of successful relationships, wrote to Losada because he couldn't follow the equations. "I thought it was something I didn't know about, because he's a smart guy, Losada. He never answered my email," he says.

So the critics weren't critical enough and a paper based on pure mathematical bullshit racked up 350 citations. Vast amounts of time, money and effort was wasted. What does this say about the scientific process?

By the way, in case anyone thinks computing is immune to this sort of thing, it's not. Papers about "Russian twitter bots" are a current streak of bad science in computing, for obvious reasons: the authors want to undermine political trends they don't like. The last one I read claimed to have constructed a neural network that could detect Russian bots with 99%+ accuracy. Nowhere in the paper did it give any examples of what the network detected, nor what the ground truth they were comparing to was. When I emailed the authors to ask for the data so the study could be replicated, I was told the data was not available (despite being just a bunch of tweets i.e. public data).

It was literally an entire paper that looked scientific but boiled down to "we made a magic black box that without fail finds evidence of a vast conspiracy, but we can't show you. Trust us."

Re: How not to be a crank: rules for not being a science-dick

#27
post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If you can't fathom the other side and where they're coming from, you, are in fact, biased beyond listening to facts, and are likely wrong. This one especially applies to politics. If you are one of those looking for "sanity", or "common sense", and can't imagine how the other side can possibly hold some position, then this applies to you.

I’m not sure that’s accurate. People hold all manner of irrational political beliefs and there is value in recognizing that irrationality.

it's a lot easier to dismiss political ideas that you don't like by labeling them "irrational" than it is to open your mind to the reasons why a person might rationally disagree with you.

Re: How not to be a crank: rules for not being a science-dick

#28
post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am without a doubt that white nationalists and Nazis are wrong. Am I supposed to question myself here? Supposed to assume I'm wrong? Your line of thinking is very dangerous and not safe, it enables very bad people by making good people assume they are terrible people themselves.

Only you can stop the very dangerous people! Consider the fact that you are a byproduct of the endless programming and propaganda behind the War on Terror. If you have no doubts on that subject, YOU are wrong.

So, I'm endlessly programmed, therefore nazis are good?

You can critique the way we acquire information and use that to cast doubt on conclusions. But you definitely can not use those criticisms to add validity to any conclusions either. So I don't see how this world view does anybody any good.

At some point, you see nazis, you say "those are bad", and you just know you're right about it. In that sense, morals are a true compass when faced with endless doubt that can creep in if you want to be maximally scientific about things.

Re: How not to be a crank: rules for not being a science-dick

#29
post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If you can't fathom the other side and where they're coming from, you, are in fact, biased beyond listening to facts, and are likely wrong. This one especially applies to politics. If you are one of those looking for "sanity", or "common sense", and can't imagine how the other side can possibly hold some position, then this applies to you.

I’m not sure that’s accurate. People hold all manner of irrational political beliefs and there is value in recognizing that irrationality.

Yes, but there is also the real possibility that your beliefs are irrational as well. Everyone thinks they're right, and everyone has a train of thought that has led to that belief.

Re: How not to be a crank: rules for not being a science-dick

#30
post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am without a doubt that white nationalists and Nazis are wrong. Am I supposed to question myself here? Supposed to assume I'm wrong? Your line of thinking is very dangerous and not safe, it enables very bad people by making good people assume they are terrible people themselves.

Only you can stop the very dangerous people! Consider the fact that you are a byproduct of the endless programming and propaganda behind the War on Terror. If you have no doubts on that subject, YOU are wrong.

"Consider the fact that you are a byproduct of the endless programming and propaganda behind the War on Terror."

Can you expand on that? It sounds like it may contain a very interesting perspective, but I'm not quite sure what you mean.

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