I suppose a nice example would be city lights. There was an article lately about how electrical consumption for city lights increased despite the switch to LEDs. Can't quite find the article though, but here is one about light pollution increasing (which does not necessarily correlate with electrical consumption, but still): https://www.cbsnews.com/news/light-pollution-increasing-arou...
http://www.lowtechmagazine.com/2008/10/led-light-cfl-b.html this?
Jevons Paradox
21–30 of 46 posts
Re: Jevons Paradox
#22In other words, not only have we not made progress, we have gone backwards. I believe Jevon's paradox is a major cause, along with a lack of understanding of it.
A clearer way of presentint Jevon's paradox is: price decline, usage increases. Which is such a standard economic statement that it hardly needs saying. The unintuitive part of the paradox is that we measure the price of a unit of energy, not what we can do with it.
I think the best way to combat this is to negotiate for countries to implement a tax on carbon.
Negotiating for emissions reductions directly causes problems: you are asking countries to slow their growth. So, they will look for solutions. Increasing efficieny is the natural way, to get more use out of the CO2 you're allowed to use. But then....every unit of CO2 is suddenly more tempting.
Hence, our emissions have gone up, not down. There's just so much you can do with it now!
If countries agreed to tax carbon, that tax would deal with the externality caused by carbon emissions, and give an incentive to develop non-carbon electricity.
This is so obviously the market based solution that I am baffled more people don't advocate for it. It doesn't even have to raise overall taxes. You just cut the income tax or corporate tax to compensate.
Re: Jevons Paradox
#23I suppose a nice example would be city lights. There was an article lately about how electrical consumption for city lights increased despite the switch to LEDs. Can't quite find the article though, but here is one about light pollution increasing (which does not necessarily correlate with electrical consumption, but still): https://www.cbsnews.com/news/light-pollution-increasing-arou...
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/20082015/lighting-paradox...
I have to say that the amount of new light installed is truly huge and interfering with astronomical viewing. Don't bother telling someone to remember to turn off the lights anymore either... they'll look at you like you're a martian.
Re: Jevons Paradox
#24I suppose a nice example would be city lights. There was an article lately about how electrical consumption for city lights increased despite the switch to LEDs. Can't quite find the article though, but here is one about light pollution increasing (which does not necessarily correlate with electrical consumption, but still): https://www.cbsnews.com/news/light-pollution-increasing-arou...
> There was an article lately about how electrical consumption for city lights increased despite the switch to LEDs. Its something like a 6x reduction in electric usage vs incandescent, how would people manage to use 6x more light? OR was this a switch from CFL to LED that led to more usage?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-intensity_discharge_lamp
Efficiency was one reason for this, but the bigger reason was just that (for the duty cycle of a streetlamp) they require fewer installations and last way longer than incandescent bulbs. This means that the maintenance costs are much lower.
Re: Jevons Paradox
#25Re: Jevons Paradox
#26Earlier quoted context omitted.
But why would we need to reduce consumption? We need emissions tax -- a tax proportional to the environmental cost. If power consumption carried little or no environmental cost, we'd want to use a huge amount, and that wouldn't be an issue.
Renewable energy has an environmental cost as well. The solar and wind energy that isn't currently used by humans is dissipated by atmospheric, marine, geological and biological processes. It is a zero-sum game, and increasing our consumption will disrupt other processes.
You need to define what you mean by "being a zero-sum game". For example, in terms of entropy (which is a possible metric in the context of "dissipation") it isn't a zero-sum game -- certain processes increase entropy more, some less. In terms of total instantaneous thermal absorption, which defines the temperature of the Earth, it also isn't a zero-sum game -- If there was a white surface and it is made black, then the temperature of the Earth will rise; the same goes for emitting CO2 which in effect increases the global absorptivity (energy that wouldn't be absorbed if the Earth didn't contain as much GHG). Putting solar cells in barren deserts isn't going to disrupt local lifeforms simply because there aren't any. So it seems in almost every definition of zero-sum it indeed isn't a zero-sum game -- which is good!
Note that I didn't claim renewable energy has no environmental cost. It most definitely has. Every activity will have certain impacts, greater or lower, on resource availability, thermal balance, and on other lifeform habitats. The key is pricing adequately those impacts so any damage could be repaired or compensated. The effect of pricing is usually just impact minimization, since the cost of repair or compensation is usually much greater than prevention.
So it is a matter of seeking technologies that give the greatest return (power output in this case) for total cost (environmental and economic) -- and better alternatives than current ones are constantly being discovered, thankfully.
Re: Jevons Paradox
#27People view technology as a deus ex machina that will enable them to keep doing what they're doing but magically it won't pollute any more. For example, many think that solar powered planes will enable flying without pollution, which somehow justifies their current flying. The "logic" doesn't work, but they just want a story to help them sleep at night while they read that the arctic is 45 degrees above normal, knowi…
This is unscientific, as science understands the notion of local maxima, diminishing returns, and so on, whereas people worshipping technology as some non exhaustive resource, don't.
And let's not even go into resource depletion, or the odds and difficulties space travel (e.g. when talking about colonizing Mars and so on), which are waved away because "technology will find a way".
The idea that in this or that large-scale problem technology might not find a way, because it depends on limited resources (our cognitive skills, laws of physics limitations, scarcity of materials, energy costs, etc) is not considered at all, even though it's totally possible. The attitude is "surely, since we went from the caves to cars and the moon, we can go anywhere and everywhere".
Re: Jevons Paradox
#28Re: Jevons Paradox
#29People view technology as a deus ex machina that will enable them to keep doing what they're doing but magically it won't pollute any more. For example, many think that solar powered planes will enable flying without pollution, which somehow justifies their current flying. The "logic" doesn't work, but they just want a story to help them sleep at night while they read that the arctic is 45 degrees above normal, knowi…
That's an incredibly silly thing to think, where do you come across such people?
>applying more of what solved other problems isn't helping but exacerbating current problems.
While possible in principle, I don't see that happening. Installing LED lights doesn't lead to people using more electricity. Driving electric cars doesn't lead to more driving. And it seems that switching jets to synthetic/biofuels won't lead to more flying.
Jevon's paradox does not apply everywhere, just where there's supply restricted usage.
Further, technology is disconnecting carbon intensity and even energy intensity from GDP. The connection between these was an article of faith for prior generations, both from conservationists and economic conservatives, but it is changing now.
We need to rethink plans in light of these changing fundamentals: Jevon's paradox happens many places but not everywhere, and economic activity is going to be disconnected from carbon intensity.
Re: Jevons Paradox
#30Earlier quoted context omitted.
But why would we need to reduce consumption? We need emissions tax -- a tax proportional to the environmental cost. If power consumption carried little or no environmental cost, we'd want to use a huge amount, and that wouldn't be an issue.
Renewable energy has an environmental cost as well. The solar and wind energy that isn't currently used by humans is dissipated by atmospheric, marine, geological and biological processes. It is a zero-sum game, and increasing our consumption will disrupt other processes.