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Self driving cars and beyond

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21–30 of 120 posts

Re: Self driving cars and beyond

#21

A couple of years ago there was a new article on the front page pretty much every day about the great new thing that will change our lives--3D printing. I'm worried that whatever happened to 3D printing is about to happen to self driving. What did happen to 3D printing?

Cheap 3D printers produce only useless plastic trinkets. There isn't a big market for replacement parts that can't take any load, because those things don't break very often. Very few people need to print cases or the like in exotic forms. Buying traditionally manufactured stuff is cheaper than printing it yourself.

However, 3D printers are used in the industry. Not only for prototyping but also for producing parts that can't be machined easily.

So I'd say 3D printers are pretty successful.

Re: Self driving cars and beyond

#22

This is kind of a meta comment, but I’ve been lurking on HN for a while on car posts in particular. I have the impression that HN in general doesn’t like cars all that much, and in fact we would be much better of without them. I can’t argue with the facts: congestion and pollution in large cities, such as London, have never been higher where almost all on-road public transport is still run on diesel. However, I think…

Let's assume your worst-case scenario comes to pass, and politicians decide (or are influenced) to outlaw manually-driven vehicles from public roads.

First, you would still be able to drive on private tracks; plenty of car enthusiasts already do this today. If your enjoyment is derived from driving fast, or taking curves, this should be able to satisfy your requirements.

Second, if your satisfaction is derived from aimlessly driving, simply enjoying the scenery and the zen of the road, this is not something that is incompatible with self-driving cars. Hell, there could be a "Scenic drive" button that randomly takes you on different routes every time.

If you are concerned that you will no longer be able to combine these activities (driving aggressively on long, rambling courses), I think this is something you are likely to lose out on. On the other hand, if this is the case, is it even appropriate for you to be doing this on public roads today?

If your argument is that you don't want to invest the time or money to use tracks or private courses for this purpose, then I think you should reexamine just how much enjoyment you derive from driving, and where it comes from specifically.

Ultimately, it goes to a core discussion of whether roads are for transportation or for recreation; I imagine similar discussions have occurred in the past between wagons and horseback riders, for example, or later, between horse-drawn vehicles and cars. Today, I would argue that more than 50% (and probably much more) of the cars on the road are being used for transportation rather than recreation, which suggests that modifications that streamline that use will eventually crowd out the remaining percentage through the tyranny of the majority.

Re: Self driving cars and beyond

#23
post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm sure self driving will have a MUCH bigger impact on our lives than 3D printing. But it could take a pretty long time (really curious to see how long).

How? We already have means to get from point a to point b without driving ourselves. Sure, technology would be amazing, but besides that?

Autocars have the potential to reduce the price of this kind of transportation by an order of magnitude.

Re: Self driving cars and beyond

#24

This is kind of a meta comment, but I’ve been lurking on HN for a while on car posts in particular. I have the impression that HN in general doesn’t like cars all that much, and in fact we would be much better of without them. I can’t argue with the facts: congestion and pollution in large cities, such as London, have never been higher where almost all on-road public transport is still run on diesel. However, I think…

> I have the impression that HN in general doesn’t like cars all that much, and in fact we would be much better of without them.

In a discussion forum, people are free to form their opinions and rebut anyone, who they think is being incorrect. So, I don't understand why do people say this forum is unfair to x,y and z, stuff like HN in general doesn't like "cryptocurrencies" or "cars" etc doesn't help the discussion.

As for self-driving, when I read stuff like this:

But the final one speaks loudly about what city roads of the future could look like: “that autonomous vehicles (AVs) in dense urban areas should be operated only in shared fleets.”

https://www.popsci.com/self-driving-car-fleets#page-2

I can't help but get worried.

Re: Self driving cars and beyond

#25

A couple of years ago there was a new article on the front page pretty much every day about the great new thing that will change our lives--3D printing. I'm worried that whatever happened to 3D printing is about to happen to self driving. What did happen to 3D printing?

Yes, I agree that you shouldn't take the premise for granted (that self-driving cars will be here soon).

A high-profile Uber investor has said that level 4 self-driving won't be in the U.S. for 25 years:

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/06/bill-gurley-uber-investor-se...

That means they can service people without driver's licenses and people who can't drive -- the old and the young.

Also, Chris Urmson said the transition will take 30 years:

https://spectrum.ieee.org/cars-that-think/transportation/sel...

https://mondaynote.com/autonomous-cars-the-level-5-fallacy-2...

Here's my negative scenario: self-driving is "AI-complete"; you can't really hit all the edge cases without solving AI in general, which is more than 30 years away (Kurzweil is the wild optimist and predicts 2045).

You CAN use self-driving in limited circumstances, but those limitations are precisely the ones that make driving yourself around more attractive. The expense doesn't go down as quickly as anticipated because of this. They are a niche technology for DECADES.

Just like 3D printing -- the tech obviously works to an extent, but it's just not appealing for many use cases. Same with VR -- the tech works to an extent, but the content is not appealing to general audiences.

I'm happy to be proven wrong though, because I would be the first one to buy a self-driving car where I could fall asleep behind the wheel. I would love to take a trip from SF to Portland or LA like this.

Another good link: https://medium.com/self-driven/a-decade-after-darpa-our-view...

Re: Self driving cars and beyond

#26

A couple of years ago there was a new article on the front page pretty much every day about the great new thing that will change our lives--3D printing. I'm worried that whatever happened to 3D printing is about to happen to self driving. What did happen to 3D printing?

>What did happen to 3D printing?

Basically "nothing".

Sure 3D printers came out much cheaper (talking of FFF Fused Filament Fabrication or FDM Fused Deposition Modeling ) and much more precise/accurate, but still they are way too slow for any practical "final customer" use, outside the pure fun of it.

Other technologies are still too expensive (or again still too slow) to get anywhere soon in "every household".

In the professional world, set aside the "quick prototyping" field, and possibly a few other "narrow" fields, like jewelry and dentistry they can make "products" that either miss the mechanical capabilities of the "real" thing or that - if you can make them with suitable characteristics or materials - still cost tens of times as much as a same product manufactured industrially with more traditional means.

Re: Self driving cars and beyond

#27

A couple of years ago there was a new article on the front page pretty much every day about the great new thing that will change our lives--3D printing. I'm worried that whatever happened to 3D printing is about to happen to self driving. What did happen to 3D printing?

My friend bought 3D printer to print a plastic kitchen cabinet hinge part he could not find elsewhere. After few days of ramping up he produced a near perfect replacement for a broken plastic part. That was a bit of an overkill, but it was more fun than anything. I don't think he printed anything useful since then.

I cannot think of anything that I would need to print. If anything, I need fewer plastic things in my life, not more.

Re: Self driving cars and beyond

#28

This is kind of a meta comment, but I’ve been lurking on HN for a while on car posts in particular. I have the impression that HN in general doesn’t like cars all that much, and in fact we would be much better of without them. I can’t argue with the facts: congestion and pollution in large cities, such as London, have never been higher where almost all on-road public transport is still run on diesel. However, I think…

> I’m not talking about being stuck in traffic, which is often a issue with poor planning and lack of infrastructure investment rather than an issue with cars themselves I disagree with this statement. I believe that cars are not a transportation solution that scales like public transportation, for instance, does. For these same reasons I believe Musk's Boring Company's plans are exactly the wrong kind of urban plann…

> I believe that cars are not a transportation solution that scales like public transportation, for instance, does.

One thing I would like to add is that public transport is too very difficult to scale. For example, the Northern, Central and Piccadilly lines on London Underground are massively overcrowded to the extent where it’s borderline dangerous.

I don’t really know what TFL can do about it, because the lines already operates at maximum capacity. They could build more lines at £15Bn each (http://www.cityam.com/279301/gbp148bn-crossrail-project-face...), but even if money grew on trees these projects take 5-10 years to complete, by which time population has grown so much that they too are overcrowded by the time they open.

Re: Self driving cars and beyond

#29

This is kind of a meta comment, but I’ve been lurking on HN for a while on car posts in particular. I have the impression that HN in general doesn’t like cars all that much, and in fact we would be much better of without them. I can’t argue with the facts: congestion and pollution in large cities, such as London, have never been higher where almost all on-road public transport is still run on diesel. However, I think…

I agree, but it's more than just that --- self-driving cars will take more control away from individuals and put that in the hands of corporations and governments, who will have a much easier time tracking --- and even controlling --- the large-scale movement of the population. When they decide to outlaw non-self-driving cars almost completely, "the frog will have been thoroughly boiled."

Of course, it's all done under the argument of safety. But I don't think a perfectly safe world, one with no risk at all, is one worth living in either. There's enough dystopian scifi around to predict rather accurately what will happen.

Re: Self driving cars and beyond

#30

This is kind of a meta comment, but I’ve been lurking on HN for a while on car posts in particular. I have the impression that HN in general doesn’t like cars all that much, and in fact we would be much better of without them. I can’t argue with the facts: congestion and pollution in large cities, such as London, have never been higher where almost all on-road public transport is still run on diesel. However, I think…

Yes, this is a selfish opinion. Traffic kills a lot of people, and it's not just the ones doing the driving. Traffic is terrible for the environment, causes noise pollution and respiratory illness. I can understand that some people need to drive. But driving for pleasure is not something that should ever happen.

What is your opinion on flying for pleasure (i.e vacation)? We know that flying too is very damaging for the environment and creates terrible noise pollution. Would love to hear your thoughts on this!
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