Live data from Hacker News

The U.S. drops out of the top 10 in innovation ranking

bloomberg.com

21–30 of 143 posts

Re: The U.S. drops out of the top 10 in innovation ranking

#21
post #8

What drags the US down most in these rankings is "tertiary efficiency": roughly the fraction of people in grad school or with graduate degrees. Ranking countries is a dodgy business, even more than ranking colleges. A different set of weights or ways of measuring things could give you totally different answers. If you're looking for a way to claim the rankings are biased, you might argue that this up-ranks countries…

Seeing how developed nations(particularly with service-based economies) depend on ever-increasing specialization to drive economic growth and efficiency, what makes you think the percentage of grad students and graduates _wouldn't_ be a good proxy for relative economic strength?

Re: The U.S. drops out of the top 10 in innovation ranking

#22

I mean, sure, it's feasible that Israel unseated the US at no. 10, but also the US gives Israel tens of billions of dollars in support.

Well, I'm not sure this is fair. From what I can see in the rankings, they're size/population independent. So in absolute terms, the US is probably ahead in "innovation". But in relative terms, no, which might be more interesting if you're looking for a place to send your kids to university or whatever. Plus Israel has a huge number of tech companies, with really smart people (in my experience). Money is one thing, culture is another. With that in mind, I don't think it shocks anybody to hear the US education system is letting people down...

Re: The U.S. drops out of the top 10 in innovation ranking

#23
post #17
post #8

What drags the US down most in these rankings is "tertiary efficiency": roughly the fraction of people in grad school or with graduate degrees. Ranking countries is a dodgy business, even more than ranking colleges. A different set of weights or ways of measuring things could give you totally different answers. If you're looking for a way to claim the rankings are biased, you might argue that this up-ranks countries…

These rankings need to account for mobility of high profile graduate students. For example some of the top CS programs in Canada have 50-75% of graduates leave for the US tech sector. Canada gets rewarded for it's STEM grads who end up working for US companies in the US market while the US gets punished for it's lower domestic STEM grad production. If the rest of the world is producing a fairly substantial number of…

Weighted score rankings are useless / statistically irrelevant, no matter how much careful hand-tuning we do. The only way to maintain accuracy and scientific responsibility in such things is to:

1) Formally define what is meant by "innovation" in terms of clearly measurable outcomes.

2) Measure this clearly-defined quality among all countries and many sample points through time.

3) Try to separate out explanatory variables for the quality being measured. Build these data driven statistical models to model this formally defined "innovation" quantity -- not using hand-tuned weights of various measures, as these "rankings" or "indexes" often do.

4) Try to predict a probability distribution of the "innovation" quality, using models developed in step 3.

Step 1 should be qualified with explanation that this human-designed definition is an imperfect, and that all results should be understood in the context of this formal definition.

Step 2 should be qualified with notes of any possible limitations in the sampling methodology (availability of data, etc.) and how this factors into error margins.

Step 3 should be qualified with sufficient explanation that it's a model of reality derived from data, and therefore risks overfitting/underfitting/etc. errors.

Step 4 should be qualified with an explanation that this is a prediction based on the above model fit, and therefore is subject to potential errors compounded by any of the previous steps.

That would be the scientifically/statistically responsible and rigorous thing to do. But I suppose I'm crazy to expect Bloomberg to aim for any level of rigor in these "indexes".

Re: The U.S. drops out of the top 10 in innovation ranking

#24
post #8

What drags the US down most in these rankings is "tertiary efficiency": roughly the fraction of people in grad school or with graduate degrees. Ranking countries is a dodgy business, even more than ranking colleges. A different set of weights or ways of measuring things could give you totally different answers. If you're looking for a way to claim the rankings are biased, you might argue that this up-ranks countries…

Seeing how developed nations(particularly with service-based economies) depend on ever-increasing specialization to drive economic growth and efficiency, what makes you think the percentage of grad students and graduates _wouldn't_ be a good proxy for relative economic strength?

At first blush, the idea that comes to mind is this: Innovation and associated economic growth isn't the exclusive domain of grad students and graduates. Undergraduates can innovate, as do lots of people who are in private industry and not associated with academia at all.

Of course all that means is that it isn't a perfect proxy. It may well still be a good proxy. Tough to call.

Re: The U.S. drops out of the top 10 in innovation ranking

#25

Honestly a lot of these "global" rating systems are ridiculous. The US easily produces the most innovation globally. This is similar to ranking systems that consider McGill the Harvard of Canada or consider Babson College the #1 for Entrepreneurship.

Your examples aren't terribly good at proving your point. How is McGill reputation related to ranking systems? In fact even if Babson is a small school, the number of startups to student ratio isn't devoid of value as a ranking system. These types of ranking show country or organizations that punch above their weight.

Re: The U.S. drops out of the top 10 in innovation ranking

#27
post #15

I mean, sure, it's feasible that Israel unseated the US at no. 10, but also the US gives Israel tens of billions of dollars in support.

Don't other nations also receive much aid from US but score low in this ranking?

Yeah but most other nations receive hundreds of millions of dollars and it's mostly africa and middle eastern countries. US is planning to spend 1.3 trillion in Israel in FY18, although I imagine most of that is military.

No denying Israel is a leader in innovation because they absolutely are, but the headline seems to imply that they unseated the US, which is kind of misleading.

https://www.foreignassistance.gov/explore

Re: The U.S. drops out of the top 10 in innovation ranking

#28
post #2

Is the metric for most stem masters or phds useful? The Soviet Union use to produce many such people but never achieved much.

Around 50% or so of Russian PhD Dissertations are plagiarized. Here’s your source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/answer-sheet/wp/2014/03/... Russia did a lot of innovation in the 1950’s - 1970’s. They then made two terrible decisions. One was to stop producing their own computer parts and steal from abroad, which worked at first but then it became harder to steal and reverse engineer than simply make themselves…

> Around 50% or so of Russian PhD Dissertations are plagiarized.

Your "source" looks like a troll to me

Re: The U.S. drops out of the top 10 in innovation ranking

#29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But the USSR failed anyways, and it failed to innovate enough before it failed to overcome the downsides of communism. That's the point. You can have lots of people with post-grad credentials whose creativity is not fully utilized. Or who don't really have the requisite creativity in spite of their credentials. The USSR may have had quality and quantity in spades (maybe it really did!) but their economic structure wa…

> But the USSR failed anyways, and it failed to innovate enough before it failed to overcome the downsides of communism. You mean “the downside of starting off as a poorly-developed state engaged in a multi-generation combination of outright war and proxy wars and military spending races with the most advanced countries in the world”.

That is certainly one way of rephrasing, but the fact remains that of those things you list, many are the result of the ideological focus on spreading communism. So, in a way, the parent post is right that they failed to get past the downsides of communism.

Re: The U.S. drops out of the top 10 in innovation ranking

#30

Many of the comments here show why critical thinking is a useful skill esp with articles such as this one, but given how much volume there is nowadays, and the fact that we are not all subject matter experts, it becomes a bit cumbersome. I wish these articles had a "Ways in which our claim could be wrong" section. Maybe every article should. E.g. Here is what i think, but here are aspects of it that I haven't looked…

Isn't that what the comments section of an article is ? Crowd sourced feedback ? The problem with crowd sourced feedback is that most of it is low effort/low quality trolling.
Post reply on HN