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Where to hide your nuclear missile submarine?

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Re: Where to hide your nuclear missile submarine?

#21

Post by cocoablazing »

_0w8t wrote: post #19
nyolfen wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

presumably the reason you would have IR satellites looking for launch plumes in the middle of the ocean is in fact to detect submarine-based launches

The deployment of submarines is rather orthogonal to the coverage by early detection warnings. Detection is not helpful if the flight time of missile is less then reaction time. So one wants to deploy close to US coast line irrespective of detection coverage. Besides, launching from South Pacific means US will have plenty of time to detect the warhead with normal radars.

Both RF and US operate FBM forces as deterrent second-strike forces. This is not only the operational reality but also the treaty-regulated deployed configuration.

Optimizing deployment in the manner you describe is not aligned to the current mission of these forces / our deterrence relationship.

Re: Where to hide your nuclear missile submarine?

#22

Post by zdkl »

alexhutcheson wrote: post #20

> Where would you direct your submarine, and where would you best fire you missiles, from the perspective of an as-late-as-possible space-based detection of your missile launches? Honest question - is this the function you'd be optimizing for? What are the implications of earlier space-based detection of a launch? Presumably fast detection of a launch plume would help you find and hunt down the sub, but at that point…

You want to minimise the adversary's chance to put in place proper evacuation or countermeasures.

Re: Where to hide your nuclear missile submarine?

#23

Post by EGreg »

Um, it seems to me you'd direct your submarine close to the coast of a city and your missile launch would not need ICBMs.

In fact, I am worried about TacNukes - like the kind we see in James Bond movies - being smuggled INTO A CITY!

https://www.wired.com/2002/11/nukes-2/

Here is an article about loose nukes.

North Korea has ALREADY given Syria nuclear material to build a functioning nuclear weapons facility. Google "operation orchard".

I am worried that, as soon as we attack its regime, some sleeper group would use nukes somewhere.

And what do we do in general with rogue nukes? How exactly are they accounted for across every country?

Re: Where to hide your nuclear missile submarine?

#24

Post by dmurray »

alexhutcheson wrote: post #20

> Where would you direct your submarine, and where would you best fire you missiles, from the perspective of an as-late-as-possible space-based detection of your missile launches? Honest question - is this the function you'd be optimizing for? What are the implications of earlier space-based detection of a launch? Presumably fast detection of a launch plume would help you find and hunt down the sub, but at that point…

It's assumed that a submarine can travel in the ocean for long periods without detection. I don't know whether this is still considered to be true by military strategists, but it's a large part of the motivation behind having nuclear-armed submarines in the first place.

A submarine is at least pretty stealthy, but the heat signature of a missile launch is impossible to hide.

Another way to look at it: the satellite systems described in the article (SBIRS and DSP) are optimised for early detection of a launch. So when considering the deficiencies of those systems, it's correct to consider a hypothetical adversary who optimises for the opposite.

Re: Where to hide your nuclear missile submarine?

#25

Post by pps43 »

If you detect a massive ICBM launch from Russia, you know what to do - nuke Russia. You have half an hour to launch before Russian missiles take out all silos.

Now what do you do if you detect SLBM launch from somewhere in the Pacific Ocean? Who do you nuke?

Re: Where to hide your nuclear missile submarine?

#26

Post by avar »

pps43 wrote: post #25

If you detect a massive ICBM launch from Russia, you know what to do - nuke Russia. You have half an hour to launch before Russian missiles take out all silos. Now what do you do if you detect SLBM launch from somewhere in the Pacific Ocean? Who do you nuke?

The US is peculiar with its nuclear policy in trying to guarantee immediate response, by contrast say the UK only has nuclear submarines at sea, and it's expected that there'll be nothing like an immediate response, rather the captains of those submarines will find out who nuked the UK and respond.

So the answer for deterrence purposes is you don't need to nuke anyone right away, immediate response is only one layer of the onion when it comes to nuclear deterrence.

Re: Where to hide your nuclear missile submarine?

#27

Post by cameldrv »

cocoablazing wrote: post #21
_0w8t wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The deployment of submarines is rather orthogonal to the coverage by early detection warnings. Detection is not helpful if the flight time of missile is less then reaction time. So one wants to deploy close to US coast line irrespective of detection coverage. Besides, launching from South Pacific means US will have plenty of time to detect the warhead with normal radars.

Both RF and US operate FBM forces as deterrent second-strike forces. This is not only the operational reality but also the treaty-regulated deployed configuration. Optimizing deployment in the manner you describe is not aligned to the current mission of these forces / our deterrence relationship.

That's not necessarily true anymore. The Russians have deployed the Sineva and the Layner SLBMs which have GLONASS supplemental guidance. This makes no sense in a second strike scenario. The Trident II is also plenty accurate for a counterforce first strike and allows less reaction time than ICBMs.

Re: Where to hide your nuclear missile submarine?

#28

Post by cm2187 »

pps43 wrote: post #25

If you detect a massive ICBM launch from Russia, you know what to do - nuke Russia. You have half an hour to launch before Russian missiles take out all silos. Now what do you do if you detect SLBM launch from somewhere in the Pacific Ocean? Who do you nuke?

Per the long standing tradition in western diplomacy, blame the russians. You might not know why but they will know.
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