Live data from Hacker News

The end of the housing supply debate (maybe)

cityobservatory.org

21–30 of 126 posts

Re: The end of the housing supply debate (maybe)

#21
This doesn't seem to address high end housing vs (unsubsidized) low end housing. Is a hundred new units with marble countertops as good, holistically, as a hundred with laminate?

I think a lot of the opposition revolves around frustration with developers building luxury when the intent of the given policy was low or mid market units, combined with a belief that units targeted at the needy market segment would be the best solution.

Re: The end of the housing supply debate (maybe)

#22

That there was ever a debate at all is still astounding. Economics has fuzzy areas, but basic principles of supply and demand are very well-established. It's clearly nonsensical to imagine that we can simultaneously lower prices, limit supply, and allow for demand growth. The longevity of this bizarre idea demonstrates how strongly political ideas of how the world ought to work blind us to how the world does work. We…

Forget about housing for a minute.

Would you agree that a speculative boom can cause an increase in demand?

Re: The end of the housing supply debate (maybe)

#23

That there was ever a debate at all is still astounding. Economics has fuzzy areas, but basic principles of supply and demand are very well-established. It's clearly nonsensical to imagine that we can simultaneously lower prices, limit supply, and allow for demand growth. The longevity of this bizarre idea demonstrates how strongly political ideas of how the world ought to work blind us to how the world does work. We…

I don't think it ever truly was a debate over supply effects. I think the true debate is whether people agree or disagree on the desirability of more housing, and the "more supply won't help" argument was coopted by those who needed a more palatable argument than straight NIMBYism.

I can tell you 100% there is a debate over supply effects. There are many people (Peter Cohen, Causa Justa, Calle 24, some folks with red roses on Twitter, others) who show up at public comment in SF who believe that more market rate housing increases displacement and causes even higher prices.

Re: The end of the housing supply debate (maybe)

#24
post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The ones who occupy the residences have the votes...

Don't renters also have votes? If so then it's a matter of ratio and willingness to mobilize/fund efforts.

Not direct votes. The renters can vote for representatives, but city councils are overwhelmingly made up of homeowners. (and a disturbingly high proportion of property developers)

Re: The end of the housing supply debate (maybe)

#25
post #5
post #3

If you build new luxury housing presumably people now living in less desirable housing will upgrade, making their housing available at lower prices, etc.

This claim keeps popping up. I’ve yet to see it include a citation. Maybe today will be different.

here's one from the California Legislative Office about "Helping Low-Income People Afford Housing", the gist is that building more market rate housing reduces displacement: http://www.lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3345. Other headlines from the report: "Building Less Housing Than People Demand Drives High Housing Costs", "More Private Housing Construction in Coastal Urban Areas", "California Is Building Too Little Housing in Coastal Areas."

Re: The end of the housing supply debate (maybe)

#26
post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The ones who occupy the residences have the votes...

Don't renters also have votes? If so then it's a matter of ratio and willingness to mobilize/fund efforts.

Renters vote but tend to be under-represented on City Councils and such because they are a) younger, b) have less money, c) move more often than people with homes. Renters don't vote as regularly as homeowners.

Re: The end of the housing supply debate (maybe)

#27
post #22

That there was ever a debate at all is still astounding. Economics has fuzzy areas, but basic principles of supply and demand are very well-established. It's clearly nonsensical to imagine that we can simultaneously lower prices, limit supply, and allow for demand growth. The longevity of this bizarre idea demonstrates how strongly political ideas of how the world ought to work blind us to how the world does work. We…

Forget about housing for a minute. Would you agree that a speculative boom can cause an increase in demand?

The best way to end a speculative bubble is to crash the price by increasing supply.

Re: The end of the housing supply debate (maybe)

#28
This is something I've been trying to understand for a long time. In New York City because of the rent controls it seems like the market rate has diverged alarmingly from the subsidized rents. From my perspective it seems like this propagates the "Tale of Two Cities" and makes it a much wider leap to go from rent-control or subsidized housing to market-rate. In my naive opinion it seems like in a system without all of the controls in place there may be a more even spectrum of price points and make jumping to the next level of housing easier.

There are other forces at play here too such as foreign buyers speculating on the Manhattan Condo market, look no further then the foreclosure at One57 penthouse to show how it has gotten. I think building more housing at all levels is the best way to solve the affordability crisis, but naturally the higher-end of the market would be built out first due to developers wanting to cater to the highest bidder. The cities current approach of providing tax-incentives to developers to allot a certain portion of housing to affordable housing is seemingly a good strategy to tackle the problem of affordable housing as well as integration.

Re: The end of the housing supply debate (maybe)

#29
post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Forget about housing for a minute. Would you agree that a speculative boom can cause an increase in demand?

The best way to end a speculative bubble is to crash the price by increasing supply.

...potentially degrading your urban environment in the process.

My point is that, if a particular housing market is experiencing a shortage of supply due to a speculative boom, but has sufficient housing to actually house people, then you have two options: tackle the supply side by building more houses, or tackle the demand side by addressing the cause of the speculation (e.g. tax incentives could be encouraging this non-productive, speculative investment).

Re: The end of the housing supply debate (maybe)

#30
post #22

That there was ever a debate at all is still astounding. Economics has fuzzy areas, but basic principles of supply and demand are very well-established. It's clearly nonsensical to imagine that we can simultaneously lower prices, limit supply, and allow for demand growth. The longevity of this bizarre idea demonstrates how strongly political ideas of how the world ought to work blind us to how the world does work. We…

Forget about housing for a minute. Would you agree that a speculative boom can cause an increase in demand?

That's not the crazy part. The crazy part is arguing that building additional supply in response to that demand will _increase_ prices.
Post reply on HN