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The Future of Online Dating Is Unsexy and Brutally Effective

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Re: The Future of Online Dating Is Unsexy and Brutally Effective

#21
post #3

To me the frightening thing is that people seem to be unable to differentiate between no data and the negative case. For example * No Fitbit data == "You're inactive * No Open source github commits == "you dont like code" * Few Facebook friends == "you dont have friends" * Few Instagram posts == "You dont do anything"

It won't be long before "No Twitter, no Facebook, no Instagram, no Snapchat, no G+, no nothing" will translate to "a catch" in dating app terms: someone with whom to share life as we know it, not as we want others to think we live it.

Then again, maybe I'm overestimating the intelligence (or integrity) of dating app purveyors. After all, 'real' people are so hard to monetise...

Re: The Future of Online Dating Is Unsexy and Brutally Effective

#22
post #9

> Already, some apps do this by learning patterns in who we left and right swipe on, the same way Netflix makes recommendations from the movies we’ve liked in the past. Netflix recommendations are utterly bad. Musk et al. warn us constantly about "AI" and its dangers, but so far AI doesn't seem to work very well. Translating from Italian to English with Google Translate results in complete gibberish; Amazon (the othe…

not really on topic, but does https://www.taste.io work for you?

i always like to bring this up when people mention algos only being able to shuffle the past - http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/adamcurtis/entries/78691781-c9b7-...

i would think music or photos or writing would be the first place where algos could take WHAT you like about something and find matches. Just liking or upvoting isnt enough in my experience. But with music if I can say I like the lyrics, or beat, or instruments or vocal tones..

Re: The Future of Online Dating Is Unsexy and Brutally Effective

#23
post #9

> Already, some apps do this by learning patterns in who we left and right swipe on, the same way Netflix makes recommendations from the movies we’ve liked in the past. Netflix recommendations are utterly bad. Musk et al. warn us constantly about "AI" and its dangers, but so far AI doesn't seem to work very well. Translating from Italian to English with Google Translate results in complete gibberish; Amazon (the othe…

I'll be honest - I think that Amazon's recommendation engine is deliberately bad. There was an article a few years back on Target and their efforts to track/manipulate customers: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/19/magazine/shopping-habits.h... . It's fairly long, so I'll quote a few parts:

> One Target employee I spoke to provided a hypothetical example. Take a fictional Target shopper named Jenny Ward, who is 23, lives in Atlanta and in March bought cocoa-butter lotion, a purse large enough to double as a diaper bag, zinc and magnesium supplements and a bright blue rug. There’s, say, an 87 percent chance that she’s pregnant and that her delivery date is sometime in late August. What’s more, because of the data attached to her Guest ID number, Target knows how to trigger Jenny’s habits. They know that if she receives a coupon via e-mail, it will most likely cue her to buy online. They know that if she receives an ad in the mail on Friday, she frequently uses it on a weekend trip to the store. And they know that if they reward her with a printed receipt that entitles her to a free cup of Starbucks coffee, she’ll use it when she comes back again.

> Pole applied his program to every regular female shopper in Target’s national database and soon had a list of tens of thousands of women who were most likely pregnant. If they could entice those women or their husbands to visit Target and buy baby-related products, the company’s cue-routine-reward calculators could kick in and start pushing them to buy groceries, bathing suits, toys and clothing, as well. When Pole shared his list with the marketers, he said, they were ecstatic. Soon, Pole was getting invited to meetings above his paygrade. Eventually his paygrade went up.

> About a year after Pole created his pregnancy-prediction model, a man walked into a Target outside Minneapolis and demanded to see the manager. He was clutching coupons that had been sent to his daughter, and he was angry, according to an employee who participated in the conversation.

> “My daughter got this in the mail!” he said. “She’s still in high school, and you’re sending her coupons for baby clothes and cribs? Are you trying to encourage her to get pregnant?”

> The manager didn’t have any idea what the man was talking about. He looked at the mailer. Sure enough, it was addressed to the man’s daughter and contained advertisements for maternity clothing, nursery furniture and pictures of smiling infants. The manager apologized and then called a few days later to apologize again.

> On the phone, though, the father was somewhat abashed. “I had a talk with my daughter,” he said. “It turns out there’s been some activities in my house I haven’t been completely aware of. She’s due in August. I owe you an apology.”

Now my memory isn't great, but I think there was a fair amount of uproar of this and Target scrapped the program. There was a line crossed between "useful" and "creepy" somewhere along the way, and it would be my guess that Amazon seeks to avoid that. I'd fully expect them to have the data and engineering capability to create a very powerful recommendation engine (the Target article is five years old now...) - but the expected value isn't there.

Re: The Future of Online Dating Is Unsexy and Brutally Effective

#24
post #3

To me the frightening thing is that people seem to be unable to differentiate between no data and the negative case. For example * No Fitbit data == "You're inactive * No Open source github commits == "you dont like code" * Few Facebook friends == "you dont have friends" * Few Instagram posts == "You dont do anything"

It becomes sort of a self-fulfilling prophecy, if you append with other people and don't use those services. You might have a few close friends, have a favorite jogging route, make cool stuff, etc.

But from the perspective of people heavily invested in those platforms, you don't. And as the number of people on these monoplatforms trends towards 100%...

Well, I dunno, maybe it's just big cities that are like that.

Re: The Future of Online Dating Is Unsexy and Brutally Effective

#25
post #4

> But in the future, apps could identify sexists/racists/homophobes by their social media activity and preemptively blacklist them from joining. (Maybe this would aid the industry’s problem with harassment, too.) I don't think blackballing people due to statistical inferences about their behaviour is any better than harassment. > I’d guess the findings were racist: OkCupid statistics show that even though people say…

> I don't think blackballing people due to statistical inferences about their behaviour is any better than harassment.

What? Harassment is active disruption of your life. Hiding you from someone's search results or "compatibility" list is not. It's not a great future, but let's have some perspective and not equate apples with oranges.

Re: The Future of Online Dating Is Unsexy and Brutally Effective

#26
post #9

> Already, some apps do this by learning patterns in who we left and right swipe on, the same way Netflix makes recommendations from the movies we’ve liked in the past. Netflix recommendations are utterly bad. Musk et al. warn us constantly about "AI" and its dangers, but so far AI doesn't seem to work very well. Translating from Italian to English with Google Translate results in complete gibberish; Amazon (the othe…

Musk's hype of AI is just marketing.

Musk's hype of AI is his response to reading Nick Bostrom's Superintelligence.

Re: The Future of Online Dating Is Unsexy and Brutally Effective

#27
post #3

To me the frightening thing is that people seem to be unable to differentiate between no data and the negative case. For example * No Fitbit data == "You're inactive * No Open source github commits == "you dont like code" * Few Facebook friends == "you dont have friends" * Few Instagram posts == "You dont do anything"

It won't be long before "No Twitter, no Facebook, no Instagram, no Snapchat, no G+, no nothing" will translate to " a catch " in dating app terms: someone with whom to share life as we know it, not as we want others to think we live it. Then again, maybe I'm overestimating the intelligence (or integrity) of dating app purveyors. After all, 'real' people are so hard to monetise...

I suspect that people who avoid social networks will start to form increasingly independent social circles from people who generally engage in social networks. Furthermore, these circles will change over the lifetime of individuals.

For example, I was an avid user of IRC back in the late '90s. That medium formed my social experience and those people became many of my life-long friends. These days many of my friends from that time (including myself) don't use social networks much at all; Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter included. We've been there, done that, and are finding human engagement without social networks to be more satisfying. Consequently, my contemporary relationships are not significantly maintained through social networks and whether someone is or is not on Facebook or Instagram has no bearing on whether my relationships are maintained.

A wise friend of mine once said "Facebook is for people you don't know!"

Re: The Future of Online Dating Is Unsexy and Brutally Effective

#28
post #9

> Already, some apps do this by learning patterns in who we left and right swipe on, the same way Netflix makes recommendations from the movies we’ve liked in the past. Netflix recommendations are utterly bad. Musk et al. warn us constantly about "AI" and its dangers, but so far AI doesn't seem to work very well. Translating from Italian to English with Google Translate results in complete gibberish; Amazon (the othe…

> so far The dangers of AI are theoretical ones that will show up if AI reaches somewhere close to human levels of competence. The fact that it doesn't work well right now should be compared to computers speed today vs computers not being very fast in the 1960s, for example. I'm not totally sure about the "singularity" concept. But I also think today's level of sophistication should not mean any and all concerns about AI should be dismissed outright.

Re: The Future of Online Dating Is Unsexy and Brutally Effective

#30
post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It won't be long before "No Twitter, no Facebook, no Instagram, no Snapchat, no G+, no nothing" will translate to " a catch " in dating app terms: someone with whom to share life as we know it, not as we want others to think we live it. Then again, maybe I'm overestimating the intelligence (or integrity) of dating app purveyors. After all, 'real' people are so hard to monetise...

I suspect that people who avoid social networks will start to form increasingly independent social circles from people who generally engage in social networks. Furthermore, these circles will change over the lifetime of individuals. For example, I was an avid user of IRC back in the late '90s. That medium formed my social experience and those people became many of my life-long friends. These days many of my friends f…

IRC is a successful form of social media that centered around communication and enriched our physical lives. It's nice to hear others have also held onto the friendships from that time.

When I hear people excited about slack, I see it as the modern day irc client, also focused around communication.

ICQ/AIM took a big chunk out of irc, but it still didn't allow people to connect in channels.

Now we have networks where people aren't communicating as much as sharing and interacting with moments.

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