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Delta Goes Big, Then Goes Home

flightradar24.com

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Re: Delta Goes Big, Then Goes Home

#21

Post by noxToken »

Dowwie wrote: post #11
sixdimensional wrote: post #2

Wow, this is really incredible. The flight path out of Puerto Rico is nearly perfectly optimal to avoid the weather. I wonder, is this a good (and incredibly positive) example of what quality real-time/near-real-time data can do for decision-making? Bravo.

I wouldn't glorify the analytics too much in this case. I'm confident that the management and the pilots made decisions that far exceeded decisions that could be made with data approximations.

Can't make decisions without data. Sure, management and flight crew deserve the lion's share, but that real-time data is probably critical for those decisions.

Re: Delta Goes Big, Then Goes Home

#22

Post by lightbyte »

Cshelton wrote: post #4

Other than a very bumpy ride and lots of nerves, I would think a 737 (and many other commercial jets) would have no problem flying through a hurricane. Landing on the other hand... Anyone with knowledge of this?

Flying through a hurricane is not dangerous at all, especially for a massive plane like a 737. Airplanes are incredibly resistant to horizontal winds, which are all a hurricane is.

It's vertical winds that are dangerous to fly through, which is what thunderstorms create.

Re: Delta Goes Big, Then Goes Home

#23

Post by antihero »

nxsynonym wrote: post #3

As easy of a target as airlines are for the usual criticism, this is an heroic feat. I applaud the efforts of everyone involved. I can't image what it must be like to fly into a storm system like that. Nerves of steel.

I wonder if the pilots volunteer for the run? It'd be interesting to know the internal culture with regards to it.

Re: Delta Goes Big, Then Goes Home

#24

Post by throwaway613834 »

treyfitty wrote: post #18
passivepinetree wrote: post #12

Does anybody who works in the industry have any idea of what the risk management is like for these types of events? What are the odds something could go wrong compared to the relative good of squeezing in one last flight's revenue for a while? Is flying in a hurricane actually not that bad and the airport turnaround/takeoff the most dangerous part?

I'm usually cynical in these situations, but I don't think it was about revenue. Quick decision making by even the most incompetent executive would have prompted the following response: "Let's see... 50% chance of incremental $200*150=$30K (idk the price nor the capacity, so just entertain me) in revenue. Let's bump that with the expected loss/lawsuits if this fails = ... Who cares? It's in the millions. Just don't d…

But the way you imagine it makes it sound like a complete coincidence that they happened to time it so perfectly well so as to use the gap of calm air effectively... whereas that surely seems pretty well-calculated.

Re: Delta Goes Big, Then Goes Home

#26

Post by ihsw2 »

passivepinetree wrote: post #12

Does anybody who works in the industry have any idea of what the risk management is like for these types of events? What are the odds something could go wrong compared to the relative good of squeezing in one last flight's revenue for a while? Is flying in a hurricane actually not that bad and the airport turnaround/takeoff the most dangerous part?

Hurricanes are relatively slow-moving, relatively predictable, and have relatively consistent wind speeds/directions.

Obviously it would be quite bad to fly into a hurricane's rain bands (the weather outside of the "corridor" that the DL431 flight moved through).

The real feat here is the real-time and reliable coordination between all interested parties -- as mentioned in the article, the meteorologists, dispatchers, pilots, cabin crew, and ground crew. Everybody involved had a distinct sense that the window of opportunity was narrow and it should be quite clear that they acted with a high degree of professionalism and skill.

As for the life-threatening danger: it's risky, that's for sure, and I would by no means calls this a small feat, but there is no intense wind shear like those found in tornadoes, thunder storms, microbursts, or other such things.

Re: Delta Goes Big, Then Goes Home

#28

Post by lisper »

Cshelton wrote: post #4

Other than a very bumpy ride and lots of nerves, I would think a 737 (and many other commercial jets) would have no problem flying through a hurricane. Landing on the other hand... Anyone with knowledge of this?

Private pilot with 20 yrs experience here...

To say that a 737 would have "no problem" would be overly optimistic. A 737, like all commercial airliners, is pretty tough, but there are plenty of things in a hurricane that could bring one down. There's hail, up-and-downdrafts that far exceed the capability of the aircraft to overcome them, and turbulence severe enough to flip the plane inverted. The least likely event is turbulence severe enough to structurally damage the plane, though even that is possible, and hail could definitely damage the plane, especially the engines, to the point where it would no longer be airworthy. You might make it, but you'd be rolling some pretty serious dice.

Landing in a hurricane would be impossible. You can handle being kicked around in the air because there's nothing to hit. But near the ground you need reasonably stable air in order to make a controlled landing. Anything more than around 50 knots is pretty much a show-stopper for any civilian aircraft, and even much slower winds than that can present significant challenges if they're gusty or not aligned with the runway.

Re: Delta Goes Big, Then Goes Home

#29

Post by lberger »

lightbyte wrote: post #16
passivepinetree wrote: post #12

Does anybody who works in the industry have any idea of what the risk management is like for these types of events? What are the odds something could go wrong compared to the relative good of squeezing in one last flight's revenue for a while? Is flying in a hurricane actually not that bad and the airport turnaround/takeoff the most dangerous part?

Flying through a hurricane sounds dangerous, but it's actually not much different than flying normally and is perfectly safe. Planes are very resistant to horizontal wind, which is all a hurricane is.

Take off and landing are especially dangerous in a hurricane; where wind gusts can exceed a difference of 50 knots.

Re: Delta Goes Big, Then Goes Home

#30

Post by lisper »

lightbyte wrote: post #22
Cshelton wrote: post #4

Other than a very bumpy ride and lots of nerves, I would think a 737 (and many other commercial jets) would have no problem flying through a hurricane. Landing on the other hand... Anyone with knowledge of this?

Flying through a hurricane is not dangerous at all, especially for a massive plane like a 737. Airplanes are incredibly resistant to horizontal winds, which are all a hurricane is. It's vertical winds that are dangerous to fly through, which is what thunderstorms create.

Hurricanes usually have embedded thunderstorms.
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