I wonder if China could just annex NK a la Russia and Crimea, but in this case bring them into the modern age. The world would probably breathe a sigh of relief.
North Korea fires missile over Japan
21–30 of 80 posts
Re: North Korea fires missile over Japan
#22Earlier quoted context omitted.
We aren't going to war, at least not intentionally. The downsides of a conflict with a nuclear state, even one with questionable capabilities like the DPRK, vastly outweigh the upsides. And Kim knows this, which is why he feels free to continue to call our bluffs. Trump's inability to bluff (or communicate with precision in general) has really messed things up at this point. I mean, taking his words as spoken he has…
Where do we go from here? To the very brink, at least if Trump is left to his own (mobile) devices. My guess is he will reroute a CBG or two towards the Korean peninsula and make a lot of bluster about whatever new line he is prepared to draw. Meanwhile, everyone else works frantically on a backchannel plan that allows both Kim and Trump to save some face. I don't see how this happens unless brokered by China, who em…
"I don't see how this happens unless brokered by China, who emerges the big winner on the world stage."
NK is entirely dependent on China, and every administration has tried to get them to do something about their unruly vassal state. Unfortunately the status quo is what they desire most, so absent escalation they won't do anything.
Re: North Korea fires missile over Japan
#23Earlier quoted context omitted.
Imagine you're North Korea. Like you give a fuck if the US starts flying things close to your borders. They know that if the US attacks it's game over for South Korea, so unless the US is willing to throw South Korea under the bus the US won't do a damned thing. The US will also have to convince China it was attacked in order to get support. Otherwise China will sit out any conflict, as ugly as it might get. North Ko…
North Korea could be completely carpet bombed before they got a middle to South Korea. Why no one is willing to stop North Korea is bewildering.
I don't think you have any idea how many pieces of artillery they have, nor how many tunnels there are going beneath the DMZ. They are ready to cause as much destruction and chaos as their 1950s era arsenal can inflict.
It would take thousands of cruise missiles to even dent their defenses. You can't use bombers until the anti-aircraft systems are down. It's going to take hours to finish the job, and even then who knows what they've launched in that time. Seoul is an easy target, very hard to miss.
Re: North Korea fires missile over Japan
#24Earlier quoted context omitted.
Where do we go from here? To the very brink, at least if Trump is left to his own (mobile) devices. My guess is he will reroute a CBG or two towards the Korean peninsula and make a lot of bluster about whatever new line he is prepared to draw. Meanwhile, everyone else works frantically on a backchannel plan that allows both Kim and Trump to save some face. I don't see how this happens unless brokered by China, who em…
Imagine you're North Korea. Like you give a fuck if the US starts flying things close to your borders. They know that if the US attacks it's game over for South Korea, so unless the US is willing to throw South Korea under the bus the US won't do a damned thing. The US will also have to convince China it was attacked in order to get support. Otherwise China will sit out any conflict, as ugly as it might get. North Ko…
China doesn't want this mess getting any messier. At the end of the day, both Trump and Kim are wild cards, and a simple fuckup could blow nuclear fallout and/or waves of refugees over the Chinese border.
Meanwhile, China can come out a big winner by seizing this opportunity to play the adult in the room while simultaneously embarrassing the US. Trump has handed this win to Xi in a tidy little gift box.
Re: North Korea fires missile over Japan
#25What does the Japanese Self-Defense Force's charter allow in cases like this? Are they allowed to launch attacks on foreign soil in response to immediate threats, or do they need to appeal to the US/allies to do it for them? (Not that there's much they could usefully do to NK, AFAIK, but I'm curious about the principle.)
Not in the current form of the constitution, but this kind of 'trial' will sure be used by the prime minister to push his article 9 reform.
Re: North Korea fires missile over Japan
#26Earlier quoted context omitted.
Imagine you're North Korea. Like you give a fuck if the US starts flying things close to your borders. They know that if the US attacks it's game over for South Korea, so unless the US is willing to throw South Korea under the bus the US won't do a damned thing. The US will also have to convince China it was attacked in order to get support. Otherwise China will sit out any conflict, as ugly as it might get. North Ko…
North Korea could be completely carpet bombed before they got a middle to South Korea. Why no one is willing to stop North Korea is bewildering.
That people can casually accept the massive loss of lives this would cause is bewildering.
Re: North Korea fires missile over Japan
#27I'm less worried about NK missiles than I am about a boat with an NK nuke on board, detonated in a harbor. A "smugglers war".
I'm assuming the US Coast Guard is all over this kind of threat, but I don't know how hard it is to detect a bomb hidden aboard in some cranny, shielded by multiple layers of inches-thick steel.
Re: North Korea fires missile over Japan
#28Earlier quoted context omitted.
This is where I couldn't figure out his motive. He clearly wants to maintain his reign, but if so, why did he start provoking in the first place?
The threats are to extract concessions. The nukes are to make them too dangerous to invade.
Some say too dangerous not to invade. It's a complicated situation and there's no easy choice IMO.
Re: North Korea fires missile over Japan
#29Earlier quoted context omitted.
North Korea could be completely carpet bombed before they got a middle to South Korea. Why no one is willing to stop North Korea is bewildering.
I don't think you have any idea how many pieces of artillery they have, nor how many tunnels there are going beneath the DMZ. They are ready to cause as much destruction and chaos as their 1950s era arsenal can inflict. It would take thousands of cruise missiles to even dent their defenses. You can't use bombers until the anti-aircraft systems are down. It's going to take hours to finish the job, and even then who kn…
I suspect that the US has had the capability to disable ICBMs for some time now. (See patriot missile system and iron dome and remember Regan's star wars project and its not a big leap to make) I think it's just a matter that we don't want to let would be nuclear assailants know until they have already committed.
Re: North Korea fires missile over Japan
#30Earlier quoted context omitted.
North Korea could be completely carpet bombed before they got a middle to South Korea. Why no one is willing to stop North Korea is bewildering.
I don't think you have any idea how many pieces of artillery they have, nor how many tunnels there are going beneath the DMZ. They are ready to cause as much destruction and chaos as their 1950s era arsenal can inflict. It would take thousands of cruise missiles to even dent their defenses. You can't use bombers until the anti-aircraft systems are down. It's going to take hours to finish the job, and even then who kn…
Indeed, it is hard to overstate the damage NK could wreak on Seoul, even in the opening hours of a full scale conflict. Roughly half of the population of SK lives in the greater Seoul metro area. Artillery barages could claim millions of lives, and wreak economic devastation, and we're not even talking about nukes yet. I don't relish the thought of Kim, backed into a corner, fearing total oblivion, his fingers fluttering inches away from the big red button.