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Show/Ask HN seem to do pretty well. I suppose I'd have expected that, given the community feel of the site. I'd say HN is a pretty good place to test a prototype or ask for guidance, and overall people do seem to constructively and thoughtfully try to help each other out.
One realization was that it was easier to predict if a title/keyword would NOT make it to the front page than if it would. That is, it's clearer what to avoid (startup, app, business, product, mobile, marketing, etc) than what to do.
Predicting the success of comments is way easier. Just lean left-wing for positive points and right-wing for negative points. I have been testing this myself for a while.
Why wouldn't YC just use a human (or two) to bump/nudge posts they would like to climb or expose according to their agenda/internal policy?
It you monitor the hot page, there is a clear political bias, topical bias, as well as temporal peaks of movements/ranking indicating that would be the case - too complex for any ML currently to predict. Just my 2 cents.. keep it simple.
Why do people assume posts on the front-page are driven fully automatic + some secret juicy for points and what have you? Why wouldn't YC just use a human (or two) to bump/nudge posts they would like to climb or expose according to their agenda/internal policy? It you monitor the hot page, there is a clear political bias, topical bias, as well as temporal peaks of movements/ranking indicating that would be the case -…
Pretty interesting : The highest score I've been able to find right now, apart from the extreme examples, is 49.6% success, 5.3% flag ... with the title "Predicting Hacker News article success with neural networks and TensorFlow". Did the author chose that title on purpose? :) It's fun to try a title, and then add "Ask HN:" or "Show HN:" in front of it and see the probability change dramatically, or remove the (YC ..…
"Rust Rust Rust Rust Rust" seems to be the optimal number of Rusts with 97.6% success probability. EDIT: This beats it with 99.4%: " Rust Rust Rust Rust Rust "