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Uber Says Sales Growth Outpaces Losses

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Re: Uber Says Sales Growth Outpaces Losses

#21

Post by aetherson »

nebabyte wrote: post #16
aetherson wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is probably basically about the fact that driver portion is more complicated in UberPool than in the rest of their services. It's to Uber's credit that on an ordinary ride, they don't try to claim that they have revenue equal to the entire fare. That would be an easy way for them to make their top-line financials look way more palatable than they actually are (ie, that they lost about $3B on $20B, rather than $3…

Uh, that seems like something they'd get called out on pretty quickly if they tried, and would make them look worse off with the actual number than if they just opened with it Uber's gotten away with a lot of stuff but I doubt even they could pull a 'whoops, forgot our expenses' sleight of hand. Especially since they try and frame drivers as 'contractors' and not employees

Revenue, not profit. They wouldn't be saying that they forgot about expenses, just that their expenses come out of $20B in revenue, not $7B in revenue.

Re: Uber Says Sales Growth Outpaces Losses

#22

Post by georgespencer »

code4tee wrote: post #19

Uber is demonstrating that they can sell $2 bills for a buck and that there's demand for that. They've not demonstrated they can establish a real business here in what has turned into a pure commodity market. In competitive markets a lot of "me too" competitors pop up all the time. When you see consumers just picking the one that's the cheapest (i.e. with the most VC cash subsidizing the ride) and drivers rocking up…

> Uber is demonstrating that they can sell $2 bills for a buck and that there's demand for that.

I think the consensus is that rides are subsidised by around twenty cents on the dollar.

Ubers bet is autonomous cars. They pay a 75% fee to the driver. When autonomous fleets launch in the next few years they'll normalise prices at around 50%, meaning your $10 ride costs you $5, and each ride has wafer thin profitability (the additional 5% margin will be chewed up a little by maintenance costs).

And let's be real: Lyft did $600m of sales in 2016. Uber did $5.5bn. This isn't just a race to the bottom on price, it's about building a brand.

Re: Uber Says Sales Growth Outpaces Losses

#24

Post by true_religion »

georgespencer wrote: post #22
code4tee wrote: post #19

Uber is demonstrating that they can sell $2 bills for a buck and that there's demand for that. They've not demonstrated they can establish a real business here in what has turned into a pure commodity market. In competitive markets a lot of "me too" competitors pop up all the time. When you see consumers just picking the one that's the cheapest (i.e. with the most VC cash subsidizing the ride) and drivers rocking up…

> Uber is demonstrating that they can sell $2 bills for a buck and that there's demand for that. I think the consensus is that rides are subsidised by around twenty cents on the dollar. Ubers bet is autonomous cars. They pay a 75% fee to the driver. When autonomous fleets launch in the next few years they'll normalise prices at around 50%, meaning your $10 ride costs you $5, and each ride has wafer thin profitability…

Autonomous cars are not going arrive for 10 to 15 years. If Uber can't reduce costs by 20% or increase prices by 20% or some combination of the two, then they are making the wrong kind of bet's.

Personally, I believe their bet is on not needing a large advertising budget once enough people know about their service.

Re: Uber Says Sales Growth Outpaces Losses

#25

Post by Yhippa »

slackstation wrote: post #15

Sales growth in commodity product that is loosing money on ever sale? I'll never understand this. Uber won't own the market. There is zero lock-in. If Lyft is cheaper this week, I'm riding Lyft. I sold my car over a year ago and use a mix of ridesharing and rentals for transportation. Uber and Lyft's greatest competition in my life is a small Google product where people pick up people on their daily commute to and fr…

> Uber and Lyft's greatest competition in my life is a small Google product where people pick up people on their daily commute to and from work and the drivers are compensated only for gas money.

When I first heard about Uber I never thought about it as a replacement for the traditional taxi system but more of this. People on the way to their destination who can take some people there. Not some guy waiting around for the next person who needs a ride.

Re: Uber Says Sales Growth Outpaces Losses

#26

Post by toomuchtodo »

code4tee wrote: post #19

Uber is demonstrating that they can sell $2 bills for a buck and that there's demand for that. They've not demonstrated they can establish a real business here in what has turned into a pure commodity market. In competitive markets a lot of "me too" competitors pop up all the time. When you see consumers just picking the one that's the cheapest (i.e. with the most VC cash subsidizing the ride) and drivers rocking up…

Quibble: having multiple phones is not gaming companies; they're independent contractors, remember? You work for whoever provides the best compensation at that moment.

Live by the sword, die by the sword.

Re: Uber Says Sales Growth Outpaces Losses

#27

Post by AndrewKemendo »

slackstation wrote: post #15

Sales growth in commodity product that is loosing money on ever sale? I'll never understand this. Uber won't own the market. There is zero lock-in. If Lyft is cheaper this week, I'm riding Lyft. I sold my car over a year ago and use a mix of ridesharing and rentals for transportation. Uber and Lyft's greatest competition in my life is a small Google product where people pick up people on their daily commute to and fr…

If you look at the primary ways they keep their market it looks closer to a CPG than a technology company in that it's almost 100% brand recognition and sentiment.

Totally different long term business model and why they are pushing so hard for driverless cars, because that's more of a platform.

I expect that they want to really be an infrastructure player more like Verizon than anything in the very long term where they have lock in through municipal or state mandate for contract vehicles and driving infrastructure.

Given their less than positive relationship with governments I could see a city/state starting with autonomous buses and then moving to cars in a hub and spoke type system for public transport level fares. Uber probably would want those contracts more than anything.

Re: Uber Says Sales Growth Outpaces Losses

#28

Post by AndrewKemendo »

codecamper wrote: post #23

hackernews.. the place for uber quarterbacking.

For what it's worth, comments like these here on HN tend to be seen as "sore loser" comments and find their way to the graveyard.

Congratulations on your foresight, however I think the chorus you should expect from this audience is "they did it better than you, so get over it."

Re: Uber Says Sales Growth Outpaces Losses

#29

Post by cowardlydragon »

nebabyte wrote: post #17
slackstation wrote: post #15

Sales growth in commodity product that is loosing money on ever sale? I'll never understand this. Uber won't own the market. There is zero lock-in. If Lyft is cheaper this week, I'm riding Lyft. I sold my car over a year ago and use a mix of ridesharing and rentals for transportation. Uber and Lyft's greatest competition in my life is a small Google product where people pick up people on their daily commute to and fr…

*losing, every Yeah, it's actually kind of amazing how many 'traditional' checkboxes Uber seems to miss with its 'rapid growth'. Little network effect lockin, low (ish) barrier to entry (with the hardest thing being brand recognition, with news of new/cheaper/'better' ridesharing plats potentially spreading like wildfire), opportunistic customers (and even drivers) without brand loyalty. If Kalanick implements some s…

I'm bullish on self-driving cars, but they won't be able to do even highway driving in time to save Uber from funding collapse.

If they do get urban self-driving cars that don't submarine them in liability from crashes, Google will prove IP ownership and take their lunch.

Uber is an unsustainable bro-party of magic money, that will implode in the next year, based on my gut. When these things fall, the fall is fast.

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