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John Gruber's Post-I/O Thoughts

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Re: John Gruber's Post-I/O Thoughts

#21

Post by ssp »

mechanical_fish wrote: post #15
ssp wrote: post #8

Ballmer was not wrong about the iPhone. He said they would get 2-3% of the total phone market , not the smartphone market. He even makes that clear in the part that Gruber quoted: "... 1.3 billion phones ...". That's phones, not smartphones. According to http://www.zdnet.com/blog/btl/apple-iphone-smartphone-market... in the first quarter of 2010 Apple had 16.1% of smartphones and smartphones were 18.8% of mobile phon…

Perhaps Ballmer did get the right answer, after all. But was he asking the right question?

Gruber is right about Microsoft failing at phones and that there is not much they can do about it. However, I don't think Ballmer is in denial about that.

It was and is obvious that at some point all phones will be what we call smartphones now. I think Ballmer's point is that even when that happens, the iPhone will not be able to sustain its 16%. It will still have insignificant market share.

Android will not, though. It might get "60 percent or 70 percent or 80 percent", and that's the share that Ballmer would have preferred run Windows.

So yes, I think Ballmer asked the right question and got the right answer. He just doesn't have any way to respond to Android.

Re: John Gruber's Post-I/O Thoughts

#22

Post by holman »

anr wrote: post #17

I'm not sure Apple is ahead on backup & restore with the iPhone / iPad. You shouldn't need a desktop (with an OS that runs iTunes) in the first place. I read that the first thing you need to do with iPad is to connect it to iTunes.

What Gruber was getting at is that Apple has a far better syncing strategy since Android wipes everything between updates and Apple neatly brings all your data with you.

That said, the cloud-based syncing that Android will eventually ship looks like the "right" solution. I doubt anyone at Apple considers USB syncing to be the end game, though; I'd be shocked if they didn't have some sort of over-the-air syncing in the pipeline. The question in my mind is will they fix this in 2010 or will they fix this a few years from now. People won't want to stay tethered that much longer.

As a sidenote- syncing over USB makes sense for the iPhone, in some respects, but the iPad lends itself to be a standalone computer. Tying that to another centralized hub is a hassle, and that's where an Android-esque cloud sync would be great.

Re: John Gruber's Post-I/O Thoughts

#23

Post by m_eiman »

mootymoots wrote: post #6
raptrex wrote: post #5

Although syncing with a computer may feel retrograde, I'm sure theres a lot of people, including myself, that would rather keep their data due to privacy issues instead of relying on Google or Apple to store it. However, I think most people would prefer cloud syncing since it is so easy for the user.

Any type of wireless syncing is good for me, whether that's with the cloud, or with a Mac/PC on my wireless network. USB syncing is sooo 20th Century

It'd better be an N Wifi if I'm going to sync 16GB of music to a new device, and even that's going to take quite a while. Of course, USB 2.0 isn't really up to the task either - but at least it's faster by a significant factor.

Re: John Gruber's Post-I/O Thoughts

#24

Post by CrazedGeek »

jackowayed wrote: post #16
symesc wrote: post #11

His footnote is interesting: "Although there’s still no decent Android-based equivalent to the iPod Touch." He's right. Based on price, there is no equivalent. On features, the equivalent is a Google Nexus One without a SIM card. Trouble is, that's about to not be available from Google directly. I'm wondering whether we'll be able to buy an N1 without a contract ever again. Disclosure: I bought an N1 directly from Go…

But the N1 isn't even a very good substitute. Although people who buy iTouches love all the apps and the ability to browse the web whenever they have WiFi, in the end, they're buying an mp3 player. They're buying it so that they can listen to music. Not only is the N1 much more expensive, but it also has a much worse music-playing interface. Until someone fixes the Android music player or writes their own (luckily, a…

Might I ask why you think the Android Music app is bad? From what I can tell, it's nearly identical to the iPod app on iP* (it's more awkward getting back to your library from the Now Playing screen, but that's all).

Re: John Gruber's Post-I/O Thoughts

#25

Post by czhiddy »

dave1619 wrote: post #12

It appears to me the biggest news from google I/O was the release of flash on android, just a couple weeks after Steve Jobs says it wasn't practical. Google just didn't demo it and give a release date several months away, but they delivered it (with reports of folks getting 2.2 pushed already). Seems like Apple needs to reconsider their position on Flash... already.

Flash could run at 100% native app speeds with no battery hit and Apple still wouldn't support it. Why? It's not part of their overall plan to give Adobe power over the platform.

So no, Apple doesn't need to (and won't) reconsider their position on Flash.

Re: John Gruber's Post-I/O Thoughts

#26

Post by joezydeco »

kenshi wrote: post #20

It's not just Microsoft who seem to be out of the game so to speak. What's going on with Nokia? It's taking them forever to come up with a device and/or platform that seems like a credible competitor to Android and iPhone OS.

Nokia switched tracks, abandoning Symbian for the smartphones and putting their chips on Meego embedded Linux and Qt for the UI.

There's a huge effort to make Qt into a higher level framework that can be used like Cocoa Touch or the Android UI elements. The Qt Declarative/Quick stuff is being advanced as quickly as they can work, but after working with the latest stuff they have a ways to go.

I have a hunch Nokia thinks they'll be able to quickly catch up.

Re: John Gruber's Post-I/O Thoughts

#27

Post by mootymoots »

m_eiman wrote: post #23
mootymoots wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Any type of wireless syncing is good for me, whether that's with the cloud, or with a Mac/PC on my wireless network. USB syncing is sooo 20th Century

It'd better be an N Wifi if I'm going to sync 16GB of music to a new device, and even that's going to take quite a while. Of course, USB 2.0 isn't really up to the task either - but at least it's faster by a significant factor.

sure, the initial sync, like an initial time machine backup, would take an age to sync wirelessly...

I'm thinking post that though, walking into my network and syncing latest updates, even without my prompting

Re: John Gruber's Post-I/O Thoughts

#28

Post by jackowayed »

CrazedGeek wrote: post #24
jackowayed wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But the N1 isn't even a very good substitute. Although people who buy iTouches love all the apps and the ability to browse the web whenever they have WiFi, in the end, they're buying an mp3 player. They're buying it so that they can listen to music. Not only is the N1 much more expensive, but it also has a much worse music-playing interface. Until someone fixes the Android music player or writes their own (luckily, a…

Might I ask why you think the Android Music app is bad? From what I can tell, it's nearly identical to the iPod app on iP* (it's more awkward getting back to your library from the Now Playing screen, but that's all).

The interface just isn't as nice overall. It gets the job done, but it's not as intuitive or pretty as the iPhone's player.

Also, the vast majority of people have their music in iTunes. The fact that they can't just plug in the device and tell iTunes to sync might be a turnoff

Re: John Gruber's Post-I/O Thoughts

#29

Post by Periodic »

mootymoots wrote: post #6
raptrex wrote: post #5

Although syncing with a computer may feel retrograde, I'm sure theres a lot of people, including myself, that would rather keep their data due to privacy issues instead of relying on Google or Apple to store it. However, I think most people would prefer cloud syncing since it is so easy for the user.

Any type of wireless syncing is good for me, whether that's with the cloud, or with a Mac/PC on my wireless network. USB syncing is sooo 20th Century

For example, when you buy an AppleTV, iTunes on the same network will detect that there is a new AppleTV that hasn't been synced. Then you synchronize a 5-digit code between them and off it goes syncing over the network.

I would love to see iPhones and iPads show up in the same way and not require a sync immediately. This would be right on track with the life-without-wires they were pushing with the MacBook Air.

Re: John Gruber's Post-I/O Thoughts

#30

Post by m_eiman »

mootymoots wrote: post #27
m_eiman wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It'd better be an N Wifi if I'm going to sync 16GB of music to a new device, and even that's going to take quite a while. Of course, USB 2.0 isn't really up to the task either - but at least it's faster by a significant factor.

sure, the initial sync, like an initial time machine backup, would take an age to sync wirelessly... I'm thinking post that though, walking into my network and syncing latest updates, even without my prompting

Agreed, I can't think of any good reason not to allow sync over wifi (or over 3g for that matter, if I'm on a flatrate plan).
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