Live data from Hacker News

US pulls out of Trans-Pacific Partnership

arstechnica.com

21–30 of 99 posts

Re: US pulls out of Trans-Pacific Partnership

#21
post #2

TPP felt to me one of the issues that really defined the Trump campaign and the voters it appealed to. I think Clinton eventually [0] took a public stance against the TPP, but ignoring the public's perception of her relation to the truth, she clearly did not prioritize the dismantling of TPP in the way that Trump did. In fact, it's really hard to imagine her undoing President Obama's work were she in office. If someo…

This Podesta email isn't one of the DKIM-signed ones, but it shows that Clinton was ultimately going to support TPP regardless of what she was saying: https://wikileaks.org/podesta-emails/emailid/6616 (note the email is from 2015) As for Trump, he's done 2 of the "Seven actions to protect American workers" he promised for the first 100 days in office (PDF): https://assets.donaldjtrump.com/_landings/contract/O-TRU-102…

> As for Trump, he's done 2 of the "Seven actions to protect American workers" he promised for the first 100 days in office

What does this have to do with the discussion? It seems to be purely political advocacy. Personally, I'd prefer we not have it on HN.

Re: US pulls out of Trans-Pacific Partnership

#22

Can someone explain me why is this a good/bad thing? I'm unfamiliar with the consequences.

Whether you think it's a good or bad thing depends on your point of view. The TPP is very complicated, and it was negotiated behind closed doors. Some people didn't like it simply because of that. They believe that policy should be made in the open, not in the shadows.

There were two main things that the TPP did that caused a lot of controversy: it streamlined trade between signatories, which is great if you're a business owner or a consumer (because it drives down the cost of goods and labor) or a worker in a country with high unemployment and low wages (I'm talking Bangladesh here, not the U.S.). It's not so great if you're a worker in a country with high wages like the U.S. because free trade tends to drive wages towards being more uniform, so if you're in a high-wage country you can expect your wages to go down, or to lose your job altogether.

The second controversial provision was stronger enforcement of intellectual property laws, often allowing corporations to take unilateral measures against alleged infringers that bypassed local laws. The allegation was that this provision effectively turned multinational corporations into de-facto governments, thus undermining democracy.

These are the main reasons the TPP was very unpopular in the U.S.

The argument in favor of the TPP was that the status quo has a lot of problems that need fixing (which is true) and that the TPP, flawed as the process and the result may have been, was our best shot at fixing them (which may also have been true).

Re: US pulls out of Trans-Pacific Partnership

#23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This Podesta email isn't one of the DKIM-signed ones, but it shows that Clinton was ultimately going to support TPP regardless of what she was saying: https://wikileaks.org/podesta-emails/emailid/6616 (note the email is from 2015) As for Trump, he's done 2 of the "Seven actions to protect American workers" he promised for the first 100 days in office (PDF): https://assets.donaldjtrump.com/_landings/contract/O-TRU-102…

> As for Trump, he's done 2 of the "Seven actions to protect American workers" he promised for the first 100 days in office What does this have to do with the discussion? It seems to be purely political advocacy. Personally, I'd prefer we not have it on HN.

I am not for Trump and will actively protest him, but what "degenerate" pointed out is completely relevant to the discussion.

Re: US pulls out of Trans-Pacific Partnership

#24
post #17
post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Handy having a plan with contingency for a 180 degree pivot on her position.

It sounds like the criticism is "I hate that she might change her mind based on new evidence". I'd say its a good thing that they were willing to alter their policy based on whether it would create jobs or not.

Uh, huh, and was there evidence of planning with regard to what to do with trade with those nations should she not sign the TPP?

Re: US pulls out of Trans-Pacific Partnership

#25

Interestingly at today's White House Press Briefing, a reporter asked the Press Secretary whether the Trump Administration thought that it could surround/contain China with bilateral trade agreements the way that the TPP had intended to do on a multilateral basis. China has a couple of free trade deals in the region. It has a multilateral effort (RCEP) which is somewhat stalled and primarily pursued bilateral trade a…

Here's the real story every time you read about the comparison between multilateral and bilateral international agreements (speaking very generally):

* Powerful nations want bilateral agreements, because it's the strong negotiating with the weak. Imagine the U.S. negotiating a trade deal with Nicaragua: The U.S. position is overwhelmingly strong; they could walk away and cancel all trade with Nicaragua; the U.S. would hardly notice and Nicaragua's economy would be devastated. (EDIT: I'll add that this is true of the powerful everywhere; e.g., large businesses don't want to negotiate with government or Congress (law and regulation) or a class in court (a class action), they want to deal with individual consumers one by one.)

* Supporters of an international rules-based, law-based order, and of a democratic and rights-based order want broad multilateral agreements. Then the weak nations can band together and resist the powerful; it gives them self-determination, the foundation of democracy; it creates rule of law rather than rule of the powerful. Also, instead of an exceptionally complex system of individual agreements between each pair of countries, it creates one standard - much more like a law. Imagine a global business trying to parse the individual trade deals between every pair of countries from its supply chain to its retail customers - an incredibly, needlessly complex level of regulation compared to one international standard. Imagine if the 50 U.S. states only had bilateral trade deals with each other - that would be 1,225 deals, endless red tape for a national business (and there are many more countries than U.S. states). A major reason the U.S. is so wealthy is that it's the largest single, unified economy; that's what the EU hopes to equal.

For example, in the South China Sea, China says they want bilateral negotiations with each country - they oppose the current U.S.-led international order and want negotiations they can dominate. The U.S. and China's neighbors want a multilateral deal; they want to continue the rule of international law and the U.S.-led order, and want to negotiate from a position of strength.

My guess in this case is that it's a reflection of the fact that Trump, the Republicans, and their big business constituents prefer rule of the powerful.

Re: US pulls out of Trans-Pacific Partnership

#26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> As for Trump, he's done 2 of the "Seven actions to protect American workers" he promised for the first 100 days in office What does this have to do with the discussion? It seems to be purely political advocacy. Personally, I'd prefer we not have it on HN.

I am not for Trump and will actively protest him, but what "degenerate" pointed out is completely relevant to the discussion.

[deleted]

Re: US pulls out of Trans-Pacific Partnership

#27
post #17
post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Handy having a plan with contingency for a 180 degree pivot on her position.

It sounds like the criticism is "I hate that she might change her mind based on new evidence". I'd say its a good thing that they were willing to alter their policy based on whether it would create jobs or not.

> It sounds like the criticism is "I hate that she might change her mind based on new evidence". I'd say its a good thing that they were willing to alter their policy based on whether it would create jobs or not.

The only "new evidence" that would sway Clinton's opinion on the TPP were poll numbers.

Re: US pulls out of Trans-Pacific Partnership

#28
post #13

Interestingly at today's White House Press Briefing, a reporter asked the Press Secretary whether the Trump Administration thought that it could surround/contain China with bilateral trade agreements the way that the TPP had intended to do on a multilateral basis. China has a couple of free trade deals in the region. It has a multilateral effort (RCEP) which is somewhat stalled and primarily pursued bilateral trade a…

China's ability to reach trade deals is probably somewhat limited by the fact that they do not believe in free trade or free movement of money and goods. Seriously, if America put anywhere near the kind of obstacles to trade that China has, economists and the press would freak out.

> China's ability to reach trade deals is probably somewhat limited by the fact that they do not believe in free trade or free movement of money and goods.

China's economy is built on international trade - specifically, their massive exports - and the movement of money and goods. They don't like it in some cases, but that's true of every nation.

Re: US pulls out of Trans-Pacific Partnership

#29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> As for Trump, he's done 2 of the "Seven actions to protect American workers" he promised for the first 100 days in office What does this have to do with the discussion? It seems to be purely political advocacy. Personally, I'd prefer we not have it on HN.

I am not for Trump and will actively protest him, but what "degenerate" pointed out is completely relevant to the discussion.

How?

Re: US pulls out of Trans-Pacific Partnership

#30
post #10
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No it doesn't, or at least not as far as I can read. A summary of that email is > Here is a letter I've drafted outlining our position on trade. This draft assumes that Clinton will ultimately support the TPP and TPA, but we may change the letter dramatically if Clinton does not end up supporting the TPP and TPA (ostensibly because the final agreement doesn't cause a net gain in jobs).

Handy having a plan with contingency for a 180 degree pivot on her position.

Keeping your options open is sound strategy because humans are imperfect at predicting the future and frequently overestimate their intellectual acumen. Why wouldn't you want a fallback position in case your first plan didn't work out?
Post reply on HN