Survivorship bias.
Also why the stated historical performance for your 401k funds are probably tricking you.
A.I. accurately predicted the full baseball post-season back in July
21–30 of 71 posts
Re: A.I. accurately predicted the full baseball post-season back in July
#22Oh cool. How many AIs did they have doing the predictions? Survivorship bias.
Re: A.I. accurately predicted the full baseball post-season back in July
#23Nothing about this seems to add up. They claim they made the prediction in early July, but link to a newspaper article dated 4 August that indicates the predictions were made just one day earlier. They picked the team with the best record all season long to win the championship. They got one of the division winners wrong. Just publishing the current favorites from MLB.com's probability page [0] as of 3 August would h…
They tend to publish academic papers about the predictions. This one is obviously too recent to review, but here is an academic paper (IEEE) about their SUPERBOWL PREDICTIONS, complete with formal statistics:
http://unu.ai/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/Crowds-Vs-Swarms-SH...
Re: A.I. accurately predicted the full baseball post-season back in July
#24Nothing about this seems to add up. They claim they made the prediction in early July, but link to a newspaper article dated 4 August that indicates the predictions were made just one day earlier. They picked the team with the best record all season long to win the championship. They got one of the division winners wrong. Just publishing the current favorites from MLB.com's probability page [0] as of 3 August would h…
There's also the issue of the full suite of predictions, if these were the only predictions made then it's impressive, but if they made lots of predictions then some of their predictions coming true may be no better than chance.
They also predicted which managers would win the MVP awards, and which players would win the CY YOUNG awards but those don't get announced for 2 weeks.
Re: A.I. accurately predicted the full baseball post-season back in July
#25How many AIs screwed it up? Remember the hits, forget the misses.
Re: A.I. accurately predicted the full baseball post-season back in July
#26This reminds me of one of the chapters from "How Not to Be Wrong: The Power of Mathematical Thinking" by Jordan Ellenberg (highly recommended). He describes how "stock brokers" would send out a "free stock prediction" to thousands of email addresses. The prediction would be a simple up/down prediction for a specific stock. The prediction was randomly chosen. But these "brokers" would send an equal number of up and do…
Except this was a prediction that was done formally for the Boston Globe, at their request. You can see their article about it here:
https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2016/10/04/group-g...
That's pretty different than sending out thousands of random predictions. This was ONE prediction about MLB.
Re: A.I. accurately predicted the full baseball post-season back in July
#27This reminds me of one of the chapters from "How Not to Be Wrong: The Power of Mathematical Thinking" by Jordan Ellenberg (highly recommended). He describes how "stock brokers" would send out a "free stock prediction" to thousands of email addresses. The prediction would be a simple up/down prediction for a specific stock. The prediction was randomly chosen. But these "brokers" would send an equal number of up and do…
Derren Brown did the same thing with horse racing
Re: A.I. accurately predicted the full baseball post-season back in July
#28Not to be overly critical but: It does not match my definition of A.I: "UNU enables groups of online users to think together as a unified emergent intelligence -- a "brain of brains" that can express itself as a singular entity. Touted to as the world's first "hive mind," the UNU platform has had over 60,000 human participants in swarming sessions this year, together answering over 250,000 questions." Also I would re…
Except this was a prediction that was done formally for the Boston Globe, at their request. You can see their article about it here:
https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2016/10/04/group-g...
Re: A.I. accurately predicted the full baseball post-season back in July
#29This reminds me of one of the chapters from "How Not to Be Wrong: The Power of Mathematical Thinking" by Jordan Ellenberg (highly recommended). He describes how "stock brokers" would send out a "free stock prediction" to thousands of email addresses. The prediction would be a simple up/down prediction for a specific stock. The prediction was randomly chosen. But these "brokers" would send an equal number of up and do…
Except this was a prediction that was done formally for the Boston Globe, at their request. You can see their article about it here: https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2016/10/04/group-g... That's pretty different than sending out thousands of random predictions. This was ONE prediction about MLB.
But we don't know how many other predictions were also formally done, by other entities. We're only hearing about this one because it was right.
Re: A.I. accurately predicted the full baseball post-season back in July
#30Has Unu made any incorrect predictions? Their blog only seems to cover the big, successful ones.
In response to such skepticism, reporters come up with their own questions and ask UNU to make predictions. And the reporters monitor the process. That's what this set of picks is - it was done for the BOSTON GLOBE, at their request, with their own participants:
https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2016/10/04/group-g...