I can not predict social unrest 3-5 days before it happens but my google alert for "black man shot by police" can do the same reliably 24 hours before social unrest starts.
Suck this CIA.
CIA ‘Siren Servers’ can predict social uprisings 3-5 days in advance
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Re: CIA ‘Siren Servers’ can predict social uprisings 3-5 days in advance
#22I was personally in Western Tunisia (on the Algerian border) as the Tunisian uprising, the first of the Arab Spring, began. I was there a month. The protests were in full swing for weeks in every village in the west before anything hit western media. No travel warnings or any of that backdated pretend bureaucracy. I very much doubt the CIA had much of an idea what was going on outside the capital. The only western pr…
And the other way round. I lived in Beijing at the time when Americans bombed the Chinese embassy in Belgrade (May 1999). CNN and other Western news channels were showing films of furious Chinese protesters shouting and throwing things at the U.S. embassy buildings in Beijing. This went on for days.
When I actually went to the Sanlitun embassy area, the closest thing to a riot was a stout Western woman walking her poodle outside the German embassy. Otherwise, it was too hot for anyone to bother go outside and everything was sleepy. The week's worth of rioting on CNN was shot during one day in a well-organized riot properly supervised by the local security officials.
There is no doubt the Chinese were genuinely offended, officials and public alike, but they wouldn't let such a thing cause disorder even though CNN etc. needed the drama.
Re: CIA ‘Siren Servers’ can predict social uprisings 3-5 days in advance
#23I was personally in Western Tunisia (on the Algerian border) as the Tunisian uprising, the first of the Arab Spring, began. I was there a month. The protests were in full swing for weeks in every village in the west before anything hit western media. No travel warnings or any of that backdated pretend bureaucracy. I very much doubt the CIA had much of an idea what was going on outside the capital. The only western pr…
> Stay off the wires (including finance), and it's very hard for them to see much of anything. NGOs. [yet again with silent (dumb?) downvotes in the same comment chain that mentions "network effects".]
I don't think I've ever seen a one-word comment make it on HN...
Re: CIA ‘Siren Servers’ can predict social uprisings 3-5 days in advance
#24Every time I read about expensive programs like these I think of what else that money could have been spent on that would prevent the need for populations to rise up against their governments.
Not to put your statement down, but this probably cost a lot less than that.
Re: CIA ‘Siren Servers’ can predict social uprisings 3-5 days in advance
#25Every time I read about expensive programs like these I think of what else that money could have been spent on that would prevent the need for populations to rise up against their governments.
It's the CIA, there is a high chance that they are spending more money to fuel the revolution.
gotta have a way to measure your ROI.
Re: CIA ‘Siren Servers’ can predict social uprisings 3-5 days in advance
#26Every time I read about expensive programs like these I think of what else that money could have been spent on that would prevent the need for populations to rise up against their governments.
So who gets that money? You support democracy in China and the Communists start an uprising. You support Communists and the other side starts an uprising; someone is always pissed off -- it isn't "government" vs. "the people." It's vastly more complex. Rarely are there two sides -- more like 200. Intelligence is a wilderness of mirrors as James Angleton had said.
You could say "end the CIA" but that's sticking one's head in the sand -- as long as there are people, there are going to be bad people and groups. Obviously the determination of what is 'bad' isn't so simple.
This is a complex issue and redistributing money doesn't solve it.
Re: CIA ‘Siren Servers’ can predict social uprisings 3-5 days in advance
#27Earlier quoted context omitted.
Probably feed it with historical data and see if it can tell what has happened.
Backcasting is a fairly standard testing method, though you've got to be careful about overfitting. I need to RTFA, but this sounds like it might have relations to Peter Turchin's work on cliodynamics.
RTFA won't do you much good. It's pretty light on detail. (IMO) It spends most of its time meandering about and trying to sound like some sort of really mind-blowing techno shaman.
So much so, that I doubt the authenticity and accuracy of the information that presented.
I felt like it read a little more like a paranoid fringe article.
I mean "Siren" in this case is named for the seductive nature of the power of the servers (greek myth reference) as opposed to a "warning siren" sounding the alarm of unrest.
It gets worse, rambling on about the danger (and inevitability) if/when this power falls into the hands of corporate america.
Cliche
Re: CIA ‘Siren Servers’ can predict social uprisings 3-5 days in advance
#28Every time I read about expensive programs like these I think of what else that money could have been spent on that would prevent the need for populations to rise up against their governments.
It's the CIA, there is a high chance that they are spending more money to fuel the revolution.
Well, that's one way of knowing when uprisings will happen. Deming wrote that if you have a policy of rewarding people for fighting fires, you also need to watch who is setting those fires.
Re: CIA ‘Siren Servers’ can predict social uprisings 3-5 days in advance
#29I can not predict social unrest 3-5 days before it happens but my google alert for "black man shot by police" can do the same reliably 24 hours before social unrest starts. Suck this CIA.
I think you'll find a lot of false positives, as unfortunately that alert will be sent more than once a week: http://www.killedbypolice.net/
(M/B means Male/Black)
Re: CIA ‘Siren Servers’ can predict social uprisings 3-5 days in advance
#30Every time I read about expensive programs like these I think of what else that money could have been spent on that would prevent the need for populations to rise up against their governments.
Uprisings are nothing but a reaction to an unhealthy situation. Terrorism boils down to that same problem.
Yet, we never seem to be too interested in understanding and resolving the issues we have created which led to these reactions.