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Is artificial intelligence permanently inscrutable?

nautil.us

21–30 of 69 posts

Re: Is artificial intelligence permanently inscrutable?

#21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If someone wants an analogy: Nobody understands exactly how painkillers (aspirin, paracetamol etc.) work on the molecular level. Yet they are generally held to be quite useful. Edit: electroconvulsive therapy is an even more extreme example; we have no clue how it works, but it's very effective on severe depression. We only know it works because some Italians back in the olden days, before ethics committees were inve…

Or: nobody understands exactly how your doctor's brain reaches its conclusion about what's wrong with you, but you still trust it.

It is not like the doctor can explain in English when you ask him for details. Not all.

Re: Is artificial intelligence permanently inscrutable?

#22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I really disagree and think the whole "There's no way to gauge results!" meme is low-impact FUD. FUD that isn't particularly dangerous so people that don't know any better just believe it (like python can't be performant because of the GIL or macs are better than PCs or some other inanity). > As exciting as their performance gains have been, though, there’s a troubling fact about modern neural networks: Nobody knows…

If someone wants an analogy: Nobody understands exactly how painkillers (aspirin, paracetamol etc.) work on the molecular level. Yet they are generally held to be quite useful. Edit: electroconvulsive therapy is an even more extreme example; we have no clue how it works, but it's very effective on severe depression. We only know it works because some Italians back in the olden days, before ethics committees were inve…

So how do we get the first sick volunteers for Dr. Neural Network?

Re: Is artificial intelligence permanently inscrutable?

#23
post #3

Artificial intelligence shows little promise of developing any time soon but still shows promise over long term development.

AI has been ten years away for over 10 years so.. it's just around the corner now!

Yes, but these days, it can actually identify whether or not a photograph contains a bird.

Re: Is artificial intelligence permanently inscrutable?

#24

I think this issue of "Explainable Machine Learning" and interpretability is just going to get more and more important as ML grows. It will also be important for verifying ML-based systems - another problem area. See [1] for a discussion of both. [1] https://blog.foretellix.com/2016/08/31/machine-learning-veri...

I really disagree and think the whole "There's no way to gauge results!" meme is low-impact FUD. FUD that isn't particularly dangerous so people that don't know any better just believe it (like python can't be performant because of the GIL or macs are better than PCs or some other inanity). > As exciting as their performance gains have been, though, there’s a troubling fact about modern neural networks: Nobody knows…

Well yes, you _can_ verify ML-based systems (and I discuss briefly how in the linked article). It is just that this is much harder with such systems than with HW or SW systems for which "you have the source code".

What I meant by "Because ML systems are opaque, you cannot really reason about what they do" (perhaps I was not being clear) was this: You can indeed _observe_ what they do, but being able to actually inspect the source makes verification much easier and more reliable: You know what parts of the logic you have covered, you can think of "danger areas" (and direct testing to them), and you can simply check whether all the cases you can think about have been covered in the source.

With opaque systems, you have no idea whether e.g. your ML-based autonomous vehicle will recognize people-painted-on-a-bus as people-on-the-road, until you actually test for that. And then you have to test people-painted-on-a-truck.

What I meant regarding "modular verification" is that you can check sub-modules according to some spec (or at least according to informal comments). This is quite different from what you can do when analyzing NN layers.

I suspect you are right in claiming (in your last paragraph) that one will always have to choose between "more understandable" and "more accurate". But I think we can do various things (the DARPA suggestion being one of them) to make the "more accurate" solution more verifiable.

Re: Is artificial intelligence permanently inscrutable?

#25
Interesting article. Some things are weird. I don't know why a support vector machine is ranked better than Bayesian nets, or why they are both worse than ensemble methods w.r.t. interpretability.

However, I think the human should not be in the loop. The network should have another semantic layer that serves communication. It can be done from the ground up like Steels or Vogt have been doing.

In other words, yes we need insight, but I prefer it through introspective networks. The network should be able to explain itself.

Re: Is artificial intelligence permanently inscrutable?

#26

Interesting article. Some things are weird. I don't know why a support vector machine is ranked better than Bayesian nets, or why they are both worse than ensemble methods w.r.t. interpretability. However, I think the human should not be in the loop. The network should have another semantic layer that serves communication. It can be done from the ground up like Steels or Vogt have been doing. In other words, yes we n…

Is that Luc Steels you are referring to? I took a couple classes from him at uni a little over tem years ago. What is he doing lately that you refer to?

Re: Is artificial intelligence permanently inscrutable?

#27

Interesting article. Some things are weird. I don't know why a support vector machine is ranked better than Bayesian nets, or why they are both worse than ensemble methods w.r.t. interpretability. However, I think the human should not be in the loop. The network should have another semantic layer that serves communication. It can be done from the ground up like Steels or Vogt have been doing. In other words, yes we n…

Some people, for example medics and civil engineers, are held legally liable for the decisions that they make. If they are to use machines that help them make those decisions (and mostly they would like to due to the terrible business of killing people) then they have to be able to understand what they are being told to do, or they have to trust it enough to bet their futures on it. If the machine is literally infallible then you can imagine option b being exercised, but being honest, if you were being threatened with five years of jail and you didn't understand why it was telling you to do something would you sign it off?

Re: Is artificial intelligence permanently inscrutable?

#29
The trick to accurate interpretability is to decouple accuracy from explanations.

Just like an International Master commentator can explain most of the moves of a Super GM, so can an interpretable simple model explain the predictions of a very complex black box model.

The work by Caruana referenced in this article actually culminated in a method to get both very accurate models and still retain interpretability.

https://vimeo.com/125940125

http://www.cs.cornell.edu/~yinlou/projects/gam/

More recently there was LIME:

https://homes.cs.washington.edu/~marcotcr/blog/lime/

And there are workshops:

http://www.blackboxworkshop.org/pdf/Turner2015_MES.pdf

We will get there. 'Permanent' is a very long time and in the grand scale of things, deep learning is relatively new.

Re: Is artificial intelligence permanently inscrutable?

#30

I can't even understand why deep learning creates better predictions than regular neural nets. How does adding layers change anything?

No one really knows, there was a paper by Max Tegmark on HN yesterday with some new ideas and results, but I haven't had time to read it yet. http://arxiv.org/abs/1608.08225

The other responses to your question in this thread are as good I as could give you, but I would feel like I am recounting ideas that may be true but for which there is little evidence.

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