This resolution really only has teeth so far as the US Navy is ready and able to enforce it.
But how does US has standing?
Philippines Wins South China Sea Case Against China
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Re: Philippines Wins South China Sea Case Against China
#22There is a nice multimedia article in NY times about this:
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=12078612
Re: Philippines Wins South China Sea Case Against China
#23Hardly any surprise. A tiny piece in the massive chess game that is China's rising military dominance and the west's declining ditto. This will play out over decades and is at its heart driven by a Chinese economy that expands faster the west's.
China's economy isn't expanding faster than the West's. It was. China's economy is hardly growing at all, and is no longer growing organically. They require extremely vast amounts of new debt to continue growing at just a few percent per year. That's a scenario they can't maintain going forward. The US economy by itself is expanding as much as China in dollar GDP terms, and is doing so without taking on the kind of d…
"China's economy is growing at 2% to 3% currently"
Where is that number from? The latest I can find is a real growth rate around 7% pa.
Re: Philippines Wins South China Sea Case Against China
#24Did they really win though? It also nullifies their claims to many islands.
The whole thing about the Spratley islands began with Vietname and the Philippines occupying islands there: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spratly_Islands#Geographic_and...
Re: Philippines Wins South China Sea Case Against China
#25This was a long anticipated but still powerful ruling. The only surprise was maybe Itu Aba (太平島) being ruled to not be an island.
The court was particularly clear on rejecting the nine-dash line and China's claims of historic waters.
As much as China will say it ignores this ruling, it absolutely puts pressure on China and constricts the language it will be able to use when discussing disputes in the South China Sea. China has particularly relied on claims of historic waters, which will diplomatically make for some extremely awkward press statements for China now.
This may force China into some face-saving agreements, so that it continues to appear strong at home where it has made this into an issue of nationalism, but internationally may try to consolidate what it does hold.
Another likely option is China may try to create a ADIZ over the South China Sea like it did in the East China Sea (and use its somewhat perverted interpretation of when an ADIZ applies), with the idea that if its interests in the sea have been denied, it can try to control the air.
I expect freedom of navigation transits may increase now and with greater certainty, both from the US and from other countries including Japan and Australia, now that we know what features are entitled to a 12-mile territorial sea and which ones are not (due to being submerged at high tide).
I'm optimistic after some initial saber rattling that this may actually lead to a reduction in tensions in the South China Sea, but that is mostly up to China now at this point.
Re: Philippines Wins South China Sea Case Against China
#26Did they really win though? It also nullifies their claims to many islands. The whole thing about the Spratley islands began with Vietname and the Philippines occupying islands there: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spratly_Islands#Geographic_and...
The Tribunal agreed with the Philippines position on almost every question with the exception of 2 features: Gaven Reef (North) and McKennan Reef. Both of those features were found to be high-tide elevations.
The Tribunal also ruled Chinese activity in the region was illegal, found China to be violating its obligations under UNCLOS and failing to protect the natural habitats (including willful destruction of the coral and endangered species). China's harassment of Philippine ships was also ruled illegal. The nine-dash line was ruled invalid. China's claims of "historic waters" was found to be groundless. Mischief Reef, Second Thomas Shoal, and Reed Bank were found to “form part of the exclusive economic zone and continental shelf of the Philippines.”
Really, this was about as complete a victory for the Philippines (and refutation of everything China claims and is doing) as possible.
Re: Philippines Wins South China Sea Case Against China
#27This was a long anticipated but still powerful ruling. The only surprise was maybe Itu Aba (太平島) being ruled to not be an island. The court was particularly clear on rejecting the nine-dash line and China's claims of historic waters. As much as China will say it ignores this ruling, it absolutely puts pressure on China and constricts the language it will be able to use when discussing disputes in the South China Sea.…
"Itu Aba is not an island" was indeed a surprise, and I think it is a mistake. In particular, it was not part of the case.
The court brought the issue in because it was necessary to rule on Philippines' claim that Mischief Reef is within its EEZ, because if Itu Aba is an island EEZ generated by it needs to be considered. I think this was a bad idea and an underhanded tactic.
Re: Philippines Wins South China Sea Case Against China
#28Earlier quoted context omitted.
Which nations? Vietnam, who lost two conflicts with China already, when China was even poorer and weaker than it is now? Or the Philippines, who can barely keep their own state together as it is? Maybe Malaysia, a country constantly rocked by internal dissent because of huge economic inequality? Singapore? The only nation who might decide they "won't take it anymore" is the United States; but post-Iraq, the US will s…
Why downvoting this guy? He is somewhat right. And it is "just" strategic military positioning - to protect the new silk road naval routes. The bases are going to be there so China's naval trade routes cannot be potentially blocked by a hostile naval power.
'somewhat'. The China-Vietnam war was more of a stalemate than the Chinese-proclaimed victory, and war between China and the Philippines would draw in the US, and guess who's going to win that naval battle. Neither side will use nukes over a naval dispute, and China in particular can't afford to get the West off-side, because it's the West that buys the lion's share of it's manufacturing - whereas the West has plenty of other places to look for manufacturing, albeit not at that scale.
Re: Philippines Wins South China Sea Case Against China
#29Did they really win though? It also nullifies their claims to many islands. The whole thing about the Spratley islands began with Vietname and the Philippines occupying islands there: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spratly_Islands#Geographic_and...
The Tribunal agreed with the Philippines position on almost every question with the exception of 2 features: Gaven Reef (North) and McKennan Reef. Both of those features were found to be high-tide elevations. The Tribunal also ruled Chinese activity in the region was illegal, found China to be violating its obligations under UNCLOS and failing to protect the natural habitats (including willful destruction of the cora…
I guess I have some problems understanding the situation.
Here's my understanding: Before the court ruling several countries claimed the Spratleys to be part of their country. This includes the Phillipines which have included the Spraytleys as the municipality Kalayaan: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kalayaan,_Palawan https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Ph_Territorial_Map.png
Now the court has ruled all those claims void ("None of the fiercely disputed Spratly Islands, the UN body found, were “capable of generating extended maritime zones" in the article). However still large parts of the Spratleys lie in the Exclusive Economic Zone of the Philippines.
Re: Philippines Wins South China Sea Case Against China
#30This was a long anticipated but still powerful ruling. The only surprise was maybe Itu Aba (太平島) being ruled to not be an island. The court was particularly clear on rejecting the nine-dash line and China's claims of historic waters. As much as China will say it ignores this ruling, it absolutely puts pressure on China and constricts the language it will be able to use when discussing disputes in the South China Sea.…
"Itu Aba is not an island" was indeed a surprise, and I think it is a mistake. In particular, it was not part of the case. The court brought the issue in because it was necessary to rule on Philippines' claim that Mischief Reef is within its EEZ, because if Itu Aba is an island EEZ generated by it needs to be considered. I think this was a bad idea and an underhanded tactic.
I believe the Philippines did actually ask the Tribunal to rule on the status of Itu Aba, for exactly the reason you mention. The Philippines also argued that it was not.
I'm reading the ruling now and it appears the Tribunal based its decision on Itu Aba lacking a "stable community of people." I think most observers expected the opposite decision based on the fresh water on Itu Aba and its capacity to support human habitation.
I do agree though that this is probably the one point in the ruling I disagree with.