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Ask HN: [Brexit] What if the Article 50 will never be triggered?

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Re: Ask HN: [Brexit] What if the Article 50 will never be triggered?

#21
post #3

I think Article 50 will probably be triggered, but dragged out. Britain loses little from waiting this out until it's negotiating position improves.The EU is scared that other countries may wobble on their decision to stay and wants this done quickly. After listening to Theresa May and Boris Johnson exclude the idea of a general election I think it is becoming increasingly unlikely that there will be a reversal on th…

I disagree. I think the fact that Boris hasn't stood in the leadership race is rather telling: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36672591 Any PM that invokes Article 50 will likely get a very poor post-brexit agreement with the EU. That will no doubt result in 'the city' acting accordingly. Also after Article 50 has been invoked, we'll likely lose our presidency of the EU in 2017, and it's likely the discussions…

> - Remove the ridiculous "internal market" in the NHS > - Stop defunding the NHS

I don't have an ideological opposition to privately provided services (so long as they're free at the point of delivery, available to all regardless of ability to pay), but my experiences of NHS services delivered by private companies has been fucking awful, with a doctor clearly unfit to practice and a bunch of zero-hour contract minimum wage health care assistants topping up their wages by selling pirate DVDs. Looking at the clear abuses committed by companies like G4S it's terrifying that they're in charge of some forensic units.

And people don't understand just how badly the NHS has had its budgets cut.

> - Lapse the train operator contracts and run them as BR once did.

What we have now (one company owning all the tracks, and leasing out contracts for regions to run on those tracks) is a baffling mix of piss-poor competition (which doesn't work (look at how few people change suppliers for phones or broadband or utilities)) and central control.

> - Re-nationalise our infrastructure (electricity, water and gas)

This sounds controversial until you see how abusive some of them have been. They've created fake debt recovery agencies to scare vulnerable people into prioritising a debt that isn't actually a priority (it's more important that people pay their rent!). Some of them have got weird corporate structure purely to avoid tax or scrutiny. And competition just doesn't work - Electricity and Gas suppliers have a range of baffling plans that make it impossible to actually compare what your bill will be.

> - Stop defunding Local Councils, and allow them to build houses (rather than have housing organisations do it)

There's a bunch of stuff around public health and social care that really desperately need funding. That small amount of funding would save a lot of money for the NHS in a few years. This kind of "spend to save" thing is impossible to drive through because You need to spend the money now to see the saving in five, ten, twenty years.

Re: Ask HN: [Brexit] What if the Article 50 will never be triggered?

#22
post #19
post #9

Another question: What will change if UK leaves EU but stays in EEA (like Norway and Switzerland)?

The common market has four freedoms: Freedom of goods, services, capital, and movement. They come as a package. You don't get access to the common market without accepting freedom of movement. EU countries said that before Brexit, and they're saying it after Brexit. So, we either accept freedom of movement and get access to the common market. That will be deeply unpopular with the people who voted to "take back contr…

I remember Switzerland introduced some limits on movement awhile ago, right? How did EU react and what did Switzerland lost afterwards?

Re: Ask HN: [Brexit] What if the Article 50 will never be triggered?

#23
post #20
post #8

A clear one would be that the integrity of UK democracy would be severely damaged. If I understand correctly, the only way of leaving is using that article so not using it would be to not hear what the people said in the referendum.

The UK has a population of about 63m. 46m of those could vote. 30m of those did vote. 17.5m of those voted to leave. That's 52% of the turnout; 38% of the electorate; 25% of the population. They won the ballot, but I wish they'd stop saying "a majority of the country voted for Leave" when only a quarter of the country voted leave.

One more example of a weaker side prevailing against the sronger.

Re: Ask HN: [Brexit] What if the Article 50 will never be triggered?

#25
post #10

It's a terrible idea if you have any regard for democracy. Indeed Merkel tried persuade the UK Gov to revert the vote like the Greek PM did a year back, but after Cameron's visit to Brussels it was clear that such a thing can not happen in the UK. Greece acted as a protectorate while the UK acted as a democracy. Mind you, in order to turn the UK like Greece, you need to bomb it. Not just London, all of it... That's h…

I haven't seen many stop to give consideration to how Northern Ireland will have to deal with the fallout of this. I don't doubt that there was thought behind Leave votes, but many of them seem to ignore NI. Hopefully the peace process isn't jeaporadized, or Article 50 isn't triggered.

Re: Ask HN: [Brexit] What if the Article 50 will never be triggered?

#26
post #10

It's a terrible idea if you have any regard for democracy. Indeed Merkel tried persuade the UK Gov to revert the vote like the Greek PM did a year back, but after Cameron's visit to Brussels it was clear that such a thing can not happen in the UK. Greece acted as a protectorate while the UK acted as a democracy. Mind you, in order to turn the UK like Greece, you need to bomb it. Not just London, all of it... That's h…

I agree.

>> Indeed Merkel tried persuade the UK Gov to revert the vote like the Greek PM did a year back

That's reason enough for Brexit. This is an abusive relationship.

Britain: "I want to leave, I don't feel comfortable with you."

Merkel: "I know you've said you want to leave, but must stay. It's for my own good.".

Britain: "I am leaving, it's decided."

EU: "Ok then get out!"

Re: Ask HN: [Brexit] What if the Article 50 will never be triggered?

#27
post #22
post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The common market has four freedoms: Freedom of goods, services, capital, and movement. They come as a package. You don't get access to the common market without accepting freedom of movement. EU countries said that before Brexit, and they're saying it after Brexit. So, we either accept freedom of movement and get access to the common market. That will be deeply unpopular with the people who voted to "take back contr…

I remember Switzerland introduced some limits on movement awhile ago, right? How did EU react and what did Switzerland lost afterwards?

They voted to introduce limits but they haven't been enacted yet. Some of the deals they negotiated are now in danger of collapsing as a result.

Re: Ask HN: [Brexit] What if the Article 50 will never be triggered?

#28
post #20
post #8

A clear one would be that the integrity of UK democracy would be severely damaged. If I understand correctly, the only way of leaving is using that article so not using it would be to not hear what the people said in the referendum.

The UK has a population of about 63m. 46m of those could vote. 30m of those did vote. 17.5m of those voted to leave. That's 52% of the turnout; 38% of the electorate; 25% of the population. They won the ballot, but I wish they'd stop saying "a majority of the country voted for Leave" when only a quarter of the country voted leave.

Yes 25% of total population voted leave. You can't take this as "75% voted remain". On your figures less than 20% voted remain. The other 55% of the population didn't vote and therefore are represented by those that did.

You can't say a majority voted leave as such, but you also can't say a majority wanted to remain. The only factual figures we have suggested a majority would have voted leave.

Re: Ask HN: [Brexit] What if the Article 50 will never be triggered?

#29
post #10

It's a terrible idea if you have any regard for democracy. Indeed Merkel tried persuade the UK Gov to revert the vote like the Greek PM did a year back, but after Cameron's visit to Brussels it was clear that such a thing can not happen in the UK. Greece acted as a protectorate while the UK acted as a democracy. Mind you, in order to turn the UK like Greece, you need to bomb it. Not just London, all of it... That's h…

Citation needed.

I've never read about Merkel asking Cameron to distegard the referendum.

Re: Ask HN: [Brexit] What if the Article 50 will never be triggered?

#30
post #20
post #8

A clear one would be that the integrity of UK democracy would be severely damaged. If I understand correctly, the only way of leaving is using that article so not using it would be to not hear what the people said in the referendum.

The UK has a population of about 63m. 46m of those could vote. 30m of those did vote. 17.5m of those voted to leave. That's 52% of the turnout; 38% of the electorate; 25% of the population. They won the ballot, but I wish they'd stop saying "a majority of the country voted for Leave" when only a quarter of the country voted leave.

Yes, you have a point there :)

That's why this kind of referendums should ether be mandatory or have a higher approval point(like 75%)

Now, those 16m that didn't vote. Do we know if they don't care? Or if they are against or in favor of leaving?

Also, many would say that if you don't use your right to vote, then you can't complain about the decision taken.

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