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Apple R&D Reveals a Pivot Is Coming

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Re: Apple R&D Reveals a Pivot Is Coming

#21

Post by IBM »

datashovel wrote: post #19

I think the ideas presented appear somewhat contradictory. I may be missing something here because the following 2 ideas seem contradictory to me. 1) Apple's secrecy 2) Apple's pivot If they're pivoting, why be secret about it? One of the reasons provided was that being public about new products could hurt current product sales. If it's an entirely new product line (ie. car), I have a hard time believing someone will…

Apple doesn't pre-announce things or do concept videos (the only exception I can think of in recent memory was announcing the Mac Pro at WWDC). Things get announced when it's a product ready to be sold. It's tough to say this is the wrong strategy considering the success they've gotten because of it. And there are plenty of counter examples from their Silicon Valley rivals who like to generate PR for blue sky research or things that will never come to market for years (if ever).

Re: Apple R&D Reveals a Pivot Is Coming

#22

Post by nikdaheratik »

rdl wrote: post #17

The other depressing interpretation is that they're achieving less per dollar spent on R&D (becoming less efficient); they certainly seem to be achieving less per release of product now, so it would be consistent. Maybe there was a time when Apple got the most brilliant people wanting to work there because it was Apple; if that's no longer true, their efficiency would decrease. (Arguably the same thing happened in K-…

From looking at the numbers, they would need to be spending 10x more to achieve less per release. It seems much more likely that they're putting their resources into something else, like a car or some other new category. This would also partially explain why some of their more mature products aren't getting anything too interesting, though no one else seems to be moving into the space either. So it could also be that they're is only so much you can do with mobile phones right now.

Re: Apple R&D Reveals a Pivot Is Coming

#23

Post by tim333 »

carsongross wrote: post #8

I wish it was possible for Apple to settle in and polish, competently executing on designs that are already very good and slowly improving their entire lineup (including, please, monitors!) It's rather depressing to consider that excellent industrial design can only be supported on the exponential-looking part of the sigmoid curve.

I imagine they'll keep polishing the existing stuff as they have for a while. It's just they seem to be working on a car too. I'm not sure launching a new product is really a pivot - that term is usually used when junking the old business plan.

Re: Apple R&D Reveals a Pivot Is Coming

#24

Post by IBM »

Animats wrote: post #20

Apple may be developing automatic driving technology, but actually making cars seems unlikely. They mostly outsource manufacturing, after all. Apple might be working on something to take a bite out of Facebook or Google Search or Amazon's Echo. The next big thing is likely to be "you just talk to it and it does the right thing". Siri with common sense.

Facebook and Google Search are ad businesses, and looking at those businesses they're very small compared to Apple. There's also tons of competition there already and it's outside of the skillset of Apple.

Apple is making a car not self-driving technology. They may develop self-driving technology, but the business will be making a finished product that they sell to customers, not licensing technology to others (which is what Google is doing).

Re: Apple R&D Reveals a Pivot Is Coming

#25

Post by mturmon »

darawk wrote: post #16

Is this a surprise? Isn't it well known that Apple is working on a car? I think the big question here is not are they working on a car, but can they deliver a car that represents a significant improvement over what's out there. And that i'm highly skeptical of, unless they deliver full autonomy. But there is just no way Apple is going to beat Google to market with that technology. So, I agree they're working on a car…

I guess it's the magnitude of the effort that is not widely appreciated. DF reported on May 4 (http://daringfireball.net/linked/2016/05/04/manjoo-moonshots) that:

"I know The New York Times can’t say that it’s certain that Apple is working on a car, but I can. They are. Of course they’re working on a pay TV service. It would be astonishing if they didn’t have teams hard at work on VR and AR. The difference between Apple and other companies is that Apple will spend tens (or in the case of the car, hundreds) of millions of dollars on a new product and never ship it. They don’t just say no to ideas — they say no to long-in-development projects."

Note, "hundreds" of millions of dollars. Whatever you say about DF spin (and you'd be right!), the facts he leaks are generally accurate.

The analysis in the OP (exhibit 3) would seem to indicate ~$5B on R&D on hitherto-unknown products since 2014. Which is astonishingly large. Because it's based on company reports, this must be common knowledge for serious tech industry analysts.

Re: Apple R&D Reveals a Pivot Is Coming

#27

Post by CPLX »

darawk wrote: post #16

Is this a surprise? Isn't it well known that Apple is working on a car? I think the big question here is not are they working on a car, but can they deliver a car that represents a significant improvement over what's out there. And that i'm highly skeptical of, unless they deliver full autonomy. But there is just no way Apple is going to beat Google to market with that technology. So, I agree they're working on a car…

> But there is just no way Apple is going to beat Google to market with that technology.

Why?

Apple is possibly the world's most effective company at synthesizing industrial design and software in premium devices sold to consumers. Google is a web/cloud services and advertising company.

The reason presumably is that you can't see what Apple is doing in public, while Google has a car that still can't drive itself in the rain that is occasionally seen wandering around Mountain View. I question the methodology of that analysis.

Re: Apple R&D Reveals a Pivot Is Coming

#28

Post by partiallypro »

darawk wrote: post #16

Is this a surprise? Isn't it well known that Apple is working on a car? I think the big question here is not are they working on a car, but can they deliver a car that represents a significant improvement over what's out there. And that i'm highly skeptical of, unless they deliver full autonomy. But there is just no way Apple is going to beat Google to market with that technology. So, I agree they're working on a car…

Automotive is a low margin, high liability industry. I think Google is approaching this correctly in staying out of the hardware (for the most part.) Apple developing a full car that has to meet x & y regulation from every single different country could end up being a big disaster. Tesla isn't even profitable and has a cash burn that makes a winter furnace seem tame. I don't see how Apple can escape that reality too.

I'm sort of surprised that Microsoft & Amazon are sort of just sitting back, watching. I guess neither of them care so long as the back end is running on their cloud.

Re: Apple R&D Reveals a Pivot Is Coming

#30

Post by elchief »

partiallypro wrote: post #28
darawk wrote: post #16

Is this a surprise? Isn't it well known that Apple is working on a car? I think the big question here is not are they working on a car, but can they deliver a car that represents a significant improvement over what's out there. And that i'm highly skeptical of, unless they deliver full autonomy. But there is just no way Apple is going to beat Google to market with that technology. So, I agree they're working on a car…

Automotive is a low margin, high liability industry. I think Google is approaching this correctly in staying out of the hardware (for the most part.) Apple developing a full car that has to meet x & y regulation from every single different country could end up being a big disaster. Tesla isn't even profitable and has a cash burn that makes a winter furnace seem tame. I don't see how Apple can escape that reality too.…

Tesla makes 25% margin on their cars.
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