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Cheap Solar Power

keith.seas.harvard.edu

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Re: Cheap Solar Power

#21

Post by danielweber »

beat wrote: post #18

That's fascinating. I especially like where he's going on the cost of synthetic gasoline. I'm a little iffy on it (what's the source for CO2 by the ton? Atmosphere?), but if sufficiently cheap solar electricity can generate gasoline straight from the air at a price that rivals fossil fuel, it both solves the storage problem (gasoline is wonderful high density storage), and makes banning fossil fuel via regulation an…

I always ask about synthetic fuels as an alternative to electric vehicles and have never gotten a good answer on it. We already have a huge liquid fuel distribution network built up. Why re-invent the wheel?

Re: Cheap Solar Power

#22

Post by buovjaga »

Keith is one of the authors of the Ecomodernist Manifesto (2015). In the Manifesto they say:

The scale of land use and other environmental impacts necessary to power the world on biofuels or many other renewables are such that we doubt they provide a sound pathway to a zero-carbon low-footprint future.

High-efficiency solar cells produced from earth-abundant materials are an exception and have the potential to provide many tens of terawatts on a few percent of the Earth’s surface. Present-day solar technologies will require substantial innovation to meet this standard and the development of cheap energy storage technologies that are capable of dealing with highly variable energy generation at large scales.

Nuclear fission today represents the only present-day zero-carbon technology with the demonstrated ability to meet most, if not all, of the energy demands of a modern economy. However, a variety of social, economic, and institutional challenges make deployment of present-day nuclear technologies at scales necessary to achieve significant climate mitigation unlikely. A new generation of nuclear technologies that are safer and cheaper will likely be necessary for nuclear energy to meet its full potential as a critical climate mitigation technology.

Re: Cheap Solar Power

#23

Post by ars »

beat wrote: post #18

That's fascinating. I especially like where he's going on the cost of synthetic gasoline. I'm a little iffy on it (what's the source for CO2 by the ton? Atmosphere?), but if sufficiently cheap solar electricity can generate gasoline straight from the air at a price that rivals fossil fuel, it both solves the storage problem (gasoline is wonderful high density storage), and makes banning fossil fuel via regulation an…

> what's the source for CO2 by the ton?

Coal. Using it like this you avoid all the pollution problems (all the impurities are captured inside the process and not simply emitted).

True you still emit some extra CO2, but that vast majority of the energy content of gasoline does not come from the coal, it's added from the solar power.

So even though you do still emit CO2, as a percentage it's much more minimal.

Re: Cheap Solar Power

#25

Post by tvchurch »

ZeroGravitas wrote: post #20
tvchurch wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's what I mean. Wind might be generated "for free," but one cost is what it looks like. Another is how many birds it kills a year. ( http://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/how-many-birds-do-w... ) That's not to say we shouldn't build it. Just that we need to consider what it costs before we do.

If you check what bird conservation organisations say, they are generally pro wind power, because most of the alternatives are worse for birds. They do want to avoid building them on busy migration routes though. Amazingly popular talking point amongst hypocritical fossil fuel industry supporters and semi-professional contrarians though.

Sure. Anyone pro- or anti-wind will say whatever argument they can to try to convince people.

All I'm saying is before we decide to build more wind turbines, we should have an honest accounting of all of the benefits and costs laid out. There are locations where they make sense and places where they don't. And there are levels where some government support might make sense, and some levels where they don't.

Even if people support one form of power generation over another, there should always be a limit.

Re: Cheap Solar Power

#26

Post by beat »

danielweber wrote: post #21
beat wrote: post #18

That's fascinating. I especially like where he's going on the cost of synthetic gasoline. I'm a little iffy on it (what's the source for CO2 by the ton? Atmosphere?), but if sufficiently cheap solar electricity can generate gasoline straight from the air at a price that rivals fossil fuel, it both solves the storage problem (gasoline is wonderful high density storage), and makes banning fossil fuel via regulation an…

I always ask about synthetic fuels as an alternative to electric vehicles and have never gotten a good answer on it. We already have a huge liquid fuel distribution network built up. Why re-invent the wheel?

Cost. Synthetic fuels are very expensive. The ethanol industry sucks - it's just a fancy crop subsidy.

Re: Cheap Solar Power

#27

Post by amalantony06 »

Given that Solar power is the fundamental source of energy leading to petroleum based energy (starting with photosynthesis), it's surprising that we still rely on petroleum to the degree we do today. In 100 years this would perhaps be something people would find shocking (like how we are shocked today at how mainstream slavery used to be 150 odd years ago).

Solar Energy is unlimited, cheap and clean. My guess would be that energy will eventually end up being near free.

Re: Cheap Solar Power

#28

Post by swsieber »

semi-extrinsic wrote: post #13
afarrell wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> run the process in reverse Does the fact that CO2 makes up a very small portion of the atmosphere make this hard?

One of the big financial problems for CCS (carbon capture and storage) is that CO2 is essentially worthless. If a market would suddenly arise for concentrated CO2, I do not think we would have much of a problem to fill demand.

So, really, if one wanted to fix CCS, you would just need to find a good application for CO2, like with peanuts and peanut butter.

Re: Cheap Solar Power

#29

Post by LanguageGamer »

tvchurch wrote: post #2

"Admits" seems a bit harsh, like he was doing his best to hide something from the world. By all accounts, it looks like he had written out a reasonable explanation as to why he predicted solar would not become cost effective. At the end of the day, if something doesn't make financial sense, it won't last long without subsidies from the government. The assumptions behind his predictions changed and therefore so did th…

To what extend can the decreases in cost be attributed to the subsidies? The subsidies shift the demand curve enough to incentivize R+D... or is my Econ 101 viewpoint missing something?

Re: Cheap Solar Power

#30

Post by jeffreyrogers »

yoodenvranx wrote: post #9
kamran20 wrote: post #7

Wind and geothermal is good options as well. The biggest problem is storage.

A big problem with wind energy in Germany is a very vocal minority of old people who think that wind park visually destructs nature and it looks horrible. Personally I think wind parks look awesome but there is a lot of opposition.

When I was in middle or high school the town where I grew up put a wind farm in, despite lots of opposition. After a while you don't even notice the wind farm anymore and now no one even comments about it.
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