Yes, people have done well in the past, but I believe it's entirely possible for median market gains to disappear in the near future as this inefficiency is removed: We're seeing the start of this right now, in the way many of the more desirable "unicorns" are relying mainly on private equity and loans.
If you invested $1 a day, starting when you were born
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Re: If you invested $1 a day, starting when you were born
#22Interesting, but I doubt people tend to invest this consistently and regularly. They probably have an easy time investing when times are good (and they actually have a few extra bucks to gamble with), and tend to not invest when times are bad (they're trying to eat). Take someone who was doing pretty good during the tech and real estate bubbles, and decided to invest their spare change in 1998, 1999, 2005 and 2006, b…
Of course it also means accepting a lower spending rate in one's life.
Re: If you invested $1 a day, starting when you were born
#23Is inflation included? Surprising to see such an important detail absent from the explanation of how returns are calculated.
Re: If you invested $1 a day, starting when you were born
#24I invested my spare money in a computer, and it's definitely paid back more than the S&P 500 in salary. Using up limited funds in childhood on financial investments is just madness
Re: If you invested $1 a day, starting when you were born
#25I invested my spare money in a computer, and it's definitely paid back more than the S&P 500 in salary. Using up limited funds in childhood on financial investments is just madness
Re: If you invested $1 a day, starting when you were born
#26Re: If you invested $1 a day, starting when you were born
#27Well, someone should market this for parents. Definitely an opportunity for some company.
Re: If you invested $1 a day, starting when you were born
#28A couple things I figured I should address after reading the comments:
1) Yahoo!'s historic S&P 500 data does not factor in dividends. So the returns would likely be 1-2% higher each year (which over time makes a very big difference). I should probably add a note on the page mentioning this.
Here was my conundrum when making the tool: I picked the S&P 500 because it's the only index that allowed me to pull very, very old data (nearly 70 years) using Yahoo! Finance; plus, it's often the "go-to" index for discussing overall market performance. But it's not "real" in the sense that you can't actually buy shares, and it doesn't pay dividends. So I could make up my own method for factoring in dividends, but I wanted to go strictly by the numbers. When you factor in financial advisor fees / bad decisions that new investors make, it's probably enough to "counter" the lack of dividends, if you want to look at it that way.
Plus, sites / companies are notorious for over-stating how much you can get annually by investing. I'd prefer to under-state it, if anything. Don't want to sell false hopes.
2) Regarding incremental, small deposits (and potential transation fees)... it's actually very easy to set up auto-investments in index funds that match the S&P 500 without ever incurring any fees. You could do $31 on the first of every month and basically simulate this.
3) Inflation would be useful to factor in, but it would also add confusion. This could be a cool add-on, but I'd have to think about the clearest way to demonstrate it. So would the 1950 daily amount be equivalent of $1 today? (so I'm guessing 20 cents or so?)
Hope you guys enjoy the site. Feedback is great (positive or negative - I'm not sensitive).
Re: If you invested $1 a day, starting when you were born
#29Interesting, but I doubt people tend to invest this consistently and regularly. They probably have an easy time investing when times are good (and they actually have a few extra bucks to gamble with), and tend to not invest when times are bad (they're trying to eat). Take someone who was doing pretty good during the tech and real estate bubbles, and decided to invest their spare change in 1998, 1999, 2005 and 2006, b…
If anything, during good times it may make the most sense to store value in liquid accounts and wait for fire sale prices when the economy craps out. But some consistent growth is better than none, due to dollar cost averaging (i.e. you don't know whether asset prices are going to go up or to go down) [1].
Re: If you invested $1 a day, starting when you were born
#301. Online brokers, starting in late 90s, lowered retail trading fees, made access easier. 2. low-fee, highly liquid, highly competitive ETFs give anyone cheap exposure to the broader market indicators, like S&P 500.
So an ROI calculation from the 1970s is mostly academic, but I guess illustrative of what you might be able to get using that same approach over the next 30-40 years.