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A 19 basis point portfolio beats the average of most college endowments

awealthofcommonsense.com

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Re: A 19 basis point portfolio beats the average of most college endowments

#21
post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What planning are the endowments able to do that Vanguard would not also be doing?

Anything. Vanguard index funds just track the market so there's no hedging. The main planning I could see overlap is executing large trades since they're both moving massive amounts of money.

You are only moving massive amounts of money if you are moving massive amounts of money. Having massive amounts of money invested in ETF's doesn't mean you are executing massive trades if you are holding endowments and your only trades occur when you invest new gifts, withdraw a constant income stream, and rebalance your portfolio mix on a regular basis.

Re: A 19 basis point portfolio beats the average of most college endowments

#22
This is true, both my bosses worked for a larger well respected endowment about a year ago. The firms are not doing well and at least this one is not and there is talk if going to the strategy here.

Basically a fund of funds with a bunch of mutual funds. They are facing competition for PE deals and maintaining higher risk trading desks with high cap costs.

I would note that while the numbers in the article did beat performance now could be the best time to have a trade desk. Most indices look like this

    /\/\/?
Not / / /

So having a group work on minimizing that could be profitable

Re: A 19 basis point portfolio beats the average of most college endowments

#23

That only beats half of the endowments, I'd be more impressed if it be something like 75% to indicate it was truly a top tier product instead of just better than average.

Depends on whether these results are net of their management costs.

Re: A 19 basis point portfolio beats the average of most college endowments

#24

This would be more interesting if he had proposed the portfolio 10 years ago, rather than to do so in retrospect.

Warren Buffet made a similar bet 8 years ago on a 10 year horizon, betting on Vanguard against some top hedge funds. Buffett is very likely to win that bet. http://fortune.com/2015/02/03/berkshires-buffett-adds-to-his... http://longbets.org/362/

This is interesting! Shoddy writing int he Fortune piece though.

"The amount handed over [to charity], though, is not likely to be $1 million, because of changes that Buffett and Protégé made in the wager a couple of years ago"

One paragraph later:

"Buffett also issued a guarantee: He will pay the winning charity $1 million if the Berkshire stock bought isn’t worth that much at the bet’s end."

Nitpicky I know, but it sounds like the winning charity is guaranteed $1 million.

Re: A 19 basis point portfolio beats the average of most college endowments

#25
post #16

Anyone who looked at investing knows that you don't compare pure returns, you compare return per risk (say Sharpe ratio or some other measure). 10% return might be truly impressive if it does not involve much risk. EDIT: For people who look first at comments - the article compared some endowment funds returns with broad market returns and found that funds did not outperform the market. My argument that this is flawed…

I'd be surprised if the actively managed funds had less risk than the market.

Re: A 19 basis point portfolio beats the average of most college endowments

#26
You have to consider a few things:

1) one may be interested in the opportunity of above-average returns. If the average vanguard return is 7%, and the average self-managed return is 6.9%, on average of course vanguard is in your best interest. But what if you think you can do better? Harvard's ran a 12% return for 20 years, for example. Should they forgo it because the average is a more guaranteed, safe, and on average, better bet? Probably not. Does it signal to weaker funds to simply go with the Vanguard option? Yes.

e.g. check out this report: http://www.hmc.harvard.edu/docs/Final_Annual_Report_2015.pdf

2) looking at just returns is myopic. You need to look at risk-adjusted returns, for which finance has proposed a whole bunch of measures. I would not be surprised if the endowment funds were less risky than the vanguard, although it's hard to tell. And guess which years generate brilliant performance for risky portfolios that are heavy on stocks? Post-crisis years where the market rebounds. Risk isn't the only thing, there are all kinds of objective funds can set. Most colleges for example set liquidity limits that would be unworkable for traditional hedge funds that invest in high-potential returns in illiquid assets. Limiting yourself like this changes your roi.

That having been said, there's obviously a lot of value in this simple perspective. And it completely confirms a new reality: outperformance is getting harder and harder and investors are less likely to beat the market and add value with their investing know-how. It's pretty recent that this has been happening to this extent.

Re: A 19 basis point portfolio beats the average of most college endowments

#27
post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What planning are the endowments able to do that Vanguard would not also be doing?

Anything. Vanguard index funds just track the market so there's no hedging. The main planning I could see overlap is executing large trades since they're both moving massive amounts of money.

Surely Vanguard still need to make large trades whenever the make-up of the indices change?

When the (e.g.) 500th and 501st largest companies swap places, don't they need to sell one and buy the other to keep tracking a 500 share index?

Re: A 19 basis point portfolio beats the average of most college endowments

#28
post #18
post #16

Anyone who looked at investing knows that you don't compare pure returns, you compare return per risk (say Sharpe ratio or some other measure). 10% return might be truly impressive if it does not involve much risk. EDIT: For people who look first at comments - the article compared some endowment funds returns with broad market returns and found that funds did not outperform the market. My argument that this is flawed…

It gave a handwavy argument that risk for the endowments was higher, but no numbers.

The university with the highest total endowment suffered along with the market. It would be an obvious statement to say that Harvard suffered along with the rest of the market. Of course, they did better than the biggest losers. One could always say they could have done worse and put all their money in Citi.

I have to admit that I have no clue whether the endowment funds did better or worse than an index fund tracking the stock market but I imagine if one has $30B to invest (and you depend on dividends to run a third of one's operations) then surely you can't admit to be completely risk averse without reducing ambitions.

> In a sign of the economic times, Harvard has sent a letter to its deans saying that the university’s $36.9 billion endowment fund lost 22 percent of its value in the last four months and could decline as much as 30 percent by the end of the fiscal year on June 30.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/04/business/04harvard.html

Re: A 19 basis point portfolio beats the average of most college endowments

#29

You have to consider a few things: 1) one may be interested in the opportunity of above-average returns. If the average vanguard return is 7%, and the average self-managed return is 6.9%, on average of course vanguard is in your best interest. But what if you think you can do better? Harvard's ran a 12% return for 20 years, for example. Should they forgo it because the average is a more guaranteed, safe, and on avera…

A single outlier over a few years does not mean anything.

Harvard got 5.8% in 2015.

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