The Shipping News Suggests Economic Weakness • Hacker News Board

Re: The Shipping News Suggests Economic Weakness

#21

Post by tootie » Sat, Jan 30, 2016, 2:00 PM UTC

brc wrote: post #4

The world economy is dominated by people in governments who believe that printing money, burying it and paying people to dig it up again will increase the amount of trucks built and goods shipped. No amount of failure of this theory will be enough for it to be abandoned, because it has a certain amount of truthiness to it, and it excuses profligate and wasteful behaviour. Both these things are fun and buy votes. The…

No economists believe that ridiculous straw man nor is it relevant to this article.

Re: The Shipping News Suggests Economic Weakness

#22

Post by acjohnson55 » Sat, Jan 30, 2016, 2:02 PM UTC

netcan wrote: post #11

brc wrote: post #4

The world economy is dominated by people in governments who believe that printing money, burying it and paying people to dig it up again will increase the amount of trucks built and goods shipped. No amount of failure of this theory will be enough for it to be abandoned, because it has a certain amount of truthiness to it, and it excuses profligate and wasteful behaviour. Both these things are fun and buy votes. The…

I absolutely will not defend Keynes or any other idea in economics, inasmuch as they can possibly be implemented in the political process that decide on economic policies. That said, I do not think this is a case of a bad economist. Economics theory is theory... theory that attempts to quantify societal behaviour, various cooperation dynamics, measurable output, etc. None of them know how to deal with various problem…

The printing money concept is due to the monetarists, not Keynes. Keynes would recommend deficit spending.

Re: The Shipping News Suggests Economic Weakness

#23

Post by TeMPOraL » Sat, Jan 30, 2016, 2:05 PM UTC

pithon wrote: post #6

foobarian wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I also don't appreciate that the Y axes are not 0-based.

Why zoom out and lose the fidelity? So people who don't actually pay any attention to the axes/labels/etc. can walk away with a slightly better understand of the graph with their casual glance than they otherwise would have?

They won't walk away with better understanding, they'll walk away with worse. It's better to not understand a graph at all than to be mislead by it.

Re: The Shipping News Suggests Economic Weakness

#24

Post by lukasm » Sat, Jan 30, 2016, 2:05 PM UTC

Because I don't need that many physical goods as I used to? My phone shows me temperature, map, music player. I can buy tickets which I don't need to print. I read book on Kindle. I don't need a car - I have a bike, public transport and Uber. As a result I need to rent smaller apartment.

Re: The Shipping News Suggests Economic Weakness

#25

Post by johansch » Sat, Jan 30, 2016, 2:07 PM UTC

brudgers wrote: post #19

foobarian wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I also don't appreciate that the Y axes are not 0-based.

It's perhaps more egregious because the article leads with Volvo truck orders falling to approximately zero in a 99% one year drop. This anchors the reader to misread 50% reductions from peak over the past five years and leaved reasons for the spikes which created the peaks unexamined. One thing is clear is that the article doesn't point to a Volvo.

Regarding Volvo truck orders, btw:

These are the global numbers from their latest quarterly IR release, regarding Q3 2015 (Their Q4 report is due next Friday):

http://www3.volvo.com/investors/finrep/interim/2015/q3/q3_20...

Net order intake, number of trucks:

42,648 (Q3 2015)

50,449 (Q3 2014)

and, also:

58,024 (Q3 2007)

This last (global, not european) number from: http://www3.volvo.com/investors/finrep/interim/2007/q3/q3_20...

Re: The Shipping News Suggests Economic Weakness

#26

Post by [deleted] » Sat, Jan 30, 2016, 2:08 PM UTC

acjohnson55 wrote: post #22

netcan wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I absolutely will not defend Keynes or any other idea in economics, inasmuch as they can possibly be implemented in the political process that decide on economic policies. That said, I do not think this is a case of a bad economist. Economics theory is theory... theory that attempts to quantify societal behaviour, various cooperation dynamics, measurable output, etc. None of them know how to deal with various problem…

The printing money concept is due to the monetarists, not Keynes. Keynes would recommend deficit spending.

[deleted]

Re: The Shipping News Suggests Economic Weakness

#27

Post by vezzy-fnord » Sat, Jan 30, 2016, 2:11 PM UTC

acjohnson55 wrote: post #22

netcan wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I absolutely will not defend Keynes or any other idea in economics, inasmuch as they can possibly be implemented in the political process that decide on economic policies. That said, I do not think this is a case of a bad economist. Economics theory is theory... theory that attempts to quantify societal behaviour, various cooperation dynamics, measurable output, etc. None of them know how to deal with various problem…

The printing money concept is due to the monetarists, not Keynes. Keynes would recommend deficit spending.

Monetarism is just a theory of the transmission mechanism going from money supply->price level->output, with some variations. Their policy proposals have been quite diverse.

Keynes himself had differing policy recommendations, as well, but ultimately settled on what he called "socialization of investment" where the state would fill in certain entrepreneurial activities that the private sector is deemed to be lacking, though the specifics were elusive. Contracyclical fiscal policy was actually popularized by Alvin Hansen IIRC, and the more extreme functional finance favored by Post-Keynesians was formulated by Abba P. Lerner.

Re: The Shipping News Suggests Economic Weakness

#28

Post by bcg1 » Sat, Jan 30, 2016, 2:13 PM UTC

Rail traffic plummeted in December also, extremely low even though there is clearly a seasonal dip during that month. 2016 is starting off lower than the previous 3 years as well.

https://www.aar.org/data-center/rail-traffic-data

Re: The Shipping News Suggests Economic Weakness

#29

Post by hawkice » Sat, Jan 30, 2016, 2:14 PM UTC

foobarian wrote: post #3

ptype wrote: post #2

These charts are meaningless with such a short history, at least include 2008 in them.

I also don't appreciate that the Y axes are not 0-based.

The Baltic Dry Index chart IS zero-based. It is at an all time low, that's not just some weird illusion.

Re: The Shipping News Suggests Economic Weakness

#30

Post by sbardle » Sat, Jan 30, 2016, 2:15 PM UTC

lukasm wrote: post #24

Because I don't need that many physical goods as I used to? My phone shows me temperature, map, music player. I can buy tickets which I don't need to print. I read book on Kindle. I don't need a car - I have a bike, public transport and Uber. As a result I need to rent smaller apartment.

Also factor in the trend of millennials living at home and declining family formation. But the main reason for the drop is the collapse of the emerging markets and the fact that China has dramatically slowed down.