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Expect Some Unicorns to Lose Their Horns, and It Won’t Be Pretty

nytimes.com

21–30 of 107 posts

Re: Expect Some Unicorns to Lose Their Horns, and It Won’t Be Pretty

#21

When I read old case studies like WebVan it is hard for me to believe in a bubble. I do think their valuations are too high, but they certainly aren't zero--more than half of the people I know have taken and Uber or Lyft more than once, for example.

Things are different than the webvan bubble: many of these companies have substantial revenues, selling into a market of 10 to 20 times as many internet users, much cheaper infrastructure, etc.

Re: Expect Some Unicorns to Lose Their Horns, and It Won’t Be Pretty

#22

Any thoughts on which unicorns are more situated to "weather the storm" and which aren't?

Flipping through the list, my top 3 are Palantir, Spotify, and Zenefits.

I think Uber or Airbnb will stay and become huge, but they might both be overvalued.

Re: Expect Some Unicorns to Lose Their Horns, and It Won’t Be Pretty

#23
post #13

Am I reading this right?: 1. Early investors overvalue a company at $X+Y 2. Investors give money and get Z preferred shares at valuation $X+Y 3. New investment round, company valued at $X 4. Wealth transferred from founders and employees -> original investors to cover the difference $Y

This is, essentially, the private equity model.

Re: Expect Some Unicorns to Lose Their Horns, and It Won’t Be Pretty

#25

Any thoughts on which unicorns are more situated to "weather the storm" and which aren't?

Flipping through the list, my top 3 are Palantir, Spotify, and Zenefits. I think Uber or Airbnb will stay and become huge, but they might both be overvalued.

Nice job Founders Fund being in SpaceX, Palantir, Spotify, AirBnB & Lyft.

Re: Expect Some Unicorns to Lose Their Horns, and It Won’t Be Pretty

#27

Any thoughts on which unicorns are more situated to "weather the storm" and which aren't?

Flipping through the list, my top 3 are Palantir, Spotify, and Zenefits. I think Uber or Airbnb will stay and become huge, but they might both be overvalued.

Another poster suggested Zenefits would be hit hardest as many small/growing businesses fail and most will slow growth. On the flip side, maybe they've reached a sufficient size/revenue that they can "weather the storm".

Re: Expect Some Unicorns to Lose Their Horns, and It Won’t Be Pretty

#29

Any thoughts on which unicorns are more situated to "weather the storm" and which aren't?

Flipping through the list, my top 3 are Palantir, Spotify, and Zenefits. I think Uber or Airbnb will stay and become huge, but they might both be overvalued.

Why do you see Spotify there? I see their business model as opaque, and it seems like it's their massive funding that has kept it viable this long.

Re: Expect Some Unicorns to Lose Their Horns, and It Won’t Be Pretty

#30
post #24

Any thoughts on which unicorns are more situated to "weather the storm" and which aren't?

Basically anyone at or near profitability can weather most storms

In the immortal words of Mr Schrute, "false."

Profitability depends on a network of flowing capital. When the input (e.g. of venture funding) dry up, profits will vanish in a shockwave.

That is dramatically true for companies whose business model is to provide services and products for either other companies in the network...

...but also for those catering to their employees.

IMHO a lot of 'problems' which seemed to cry out for an 'app' solution are going to turn out to be first world problems no longer pressing when the economy turns.

Then there's the fact that there are a lot of ugly weather patterns nationally and globally brewing...

Hold on, Toto!

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