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Apple is going to have a tough year

businessinsider.com

21–30 of 38 posts

Re: Apple is going to have a tough year

#21
post #5

am I the only one who considers the markets obsession of endless growth as absurd? Both sides in the smart phone market have been growing thru beating down the weaker competitors then just by market growth, the smart phone market in developed countries is largely reaching saturation - where is the place to grow now? I work in a market where volume matters little - margin is the key - my division for example produces…

> am I the only one who considers the markets obsession of endless growth as absurd? Likely not however we're only talking stock price here and the only thing that matters in investing in stocks in finding your way back to a return which typically happens when stock prices go up and you can sell higher or you get a dividend. Since Apple doesn't do the latter it has to do the former which means requires constantly gro…

Actually AAPL starting issuing dividends in 2012 giving in to pressure from shareholders.

Re: Apple is going to have a tough year

#22

The iPhone 6S is truly an amazing piece of hardware; there is so much internal enhancement over the iPhone 6. Yet Apple hardly hyped it in that way. I got my wife a 6S for Christmas and what convinced me was what I know about it that didn't come from Apple .

My impression of the iPhone's tick-tock release cycle is that the number-increment releases are actually intentional efforts of product design... while the "S" releases are actually forced on Apple by the extremely tight supply chain they've set up for themselves.

The moment it becomes more cost-efficient to buy a bunch of some new components early, Apple does so—but then the cost of having them sitting around doing nothing when they could be put to use steadily rises. Meanwhile, it can also become increasingly expensive to keep ordering "old" components for your existing design, because the rest of the industry has moved on from using that component and you're the only one the suppliers are still producing it for, and they really want you off it too so they can shut that line down. Together, these effects imply that it actually becomes cost-effective from an operational logistics perspective to refresh the iPhone's hardware each year, even if the "design plan" is written in terms of two-year milestone releases. Whatever ends up being cost-effective to put into the interim refresh gets advertised on stage, but—unlike the actual "planned" releases—it's effectively random, rather than a "curated" list of features that go together to form a whole.

Or, to put it another way—Apple likely went to the drawing board and designed the iPhone 7 right after the release of the iPhone 6. Some random subset of the components of the iPhone 7 ended up "resolving" early enough that they got "binned" together as the iPhone 6S. Whatever components didn't become available in time for the 6S release, are now waiting until the 7.

When you see a number-increment release like the 6 or the soon-to-be 7, imagine that all the features that went into the previous "S" release were also announced on stage at the same time that they announced whatever did go into it. Because that's what Apple intends to happen; together, the 6S's features and the 7's features (or the 5S's features and the 6's features, etc.) add up to a coherent and compelling product vision. The "S" release just takes a random bite out of that vision and sputters it out early, leaving the actual numbered release to say whatever's left over.

Re: Apple is going to have a tough year

#24
post #5

am I the only one who considers the markets obsession of endless growth as absurd? Both sides in the smart phone market have been growing thru beating down the weaker competitors then just by market growth, the smart phone market in developed countries is largely reaching saturation - where is the place to grow now? I work in a market where volume matters little - margin is the key - my division for example produces…

> am I the only one who considers the markets obsession of endless growth as absurd? Likely not however we're only talking stock price here and the only thing that matters in investing in stocks in finding your way back to a return which typically happens when stock prices go up and you can sell higher or you get a dividend. Since Apple doesn't do the latter it has to do the former which means requires constantly gro…

> constantly growing the company.

Not necessarily. A stock represents the market's valuation of a company, including its future earnings.

Maybe a plateau to growth is already factored into the market's valuation of Apple (arguably, you'd have to be an idiot to think that Apple's cash cow will grow forever and magically never reach saturation). The stock's value could continue to hold steady and even grow while the company's revenue declines if that decline is less than expected.

Re: Apple is going to have a tough year

#25
It is obvious that eventually the sales of any product, even the iPhone would eventually plateau. This means of course, the stock value would be no longer determined by some fancy dreams of growth but the actual financials of the company. With the share price going down, the resulting hit might have already happened. But this still would mean that the most profitable company plateaus, not a bad place to be.

Also the outlook isn't so bad either. The iPhone 6 sold much better than all analysts predicted and I wouldn't be surprised if the 6s might not even beat it - a lot of the iPhone users who did not have a 6 were upgrading this year (including myself). And with the 7 we might get the 6 owners renew after 2 years.

The iPad sales have been slow - I myself haven't upgraded my iPad 3 yet - but if the Pencil technology comes to the full line up, it could drive a lot of interest into renewing.

And while the Apple Watch might not large by business volume yet, it owns the large part of the smartwatch market. There will be huge improvements with the next generations, so a lot of growth there. Also you cannot use the Apple Watch without a modern iPhone, so with the iPhone renewals there are more potential customers.

Re: Apple is going to have a tough year

#26

'Smart, rational people in the media, like Nilay Patel of The Verge' ahh yeah.. Ok Apple is going to be fine.. They carry very little /no debt and make the best phone in the world that magically becomes obsolete in 14 months.. I can't imagine a better business to be in and dominate.

Apple will have an alright year. Speculators in Apple common stock will have a tougher year.

Re: Apple is going to have a tough year

#28
post #9

I've heard this almost every year, and almost every year it turns out to be an incorrect assumption and as Aloha pointed out here - what is the obsession with growth? Growth does not equal stability.

> what is the obsession with growth Growth means return on investment. You gotta go in the public markets if you want to make a good return. That or dividends or a company being sold (which is obviously not going to happen to Apple).

Apple doesn't necessarily need to grow its revenue in order to provide ROI.

They could merely decline/plateau at a slower rate than the market has priced it at. Or they could use their gobs of cash to continue the buyback program.

In fact, Apple's buyback program is expected to reach $200 billion by 2017. Even if Apple's revenue stopped growing tomorrow, they would throw off enough money to run a huge buyback program for years to come.

Re: Apple is going to have a tough year

#29

This is Business Insider. It's like the TMZ of tech news. Flagged.

Is "this publication reminds me of another publication I don't like" really a valid use of flagging an article?

no, you misunderstand: https://www.google.com/search?client=safari&rls=en&q=analogy...

    a·nal·o·gy
    noun: analogy; plural noun: analogies
    a comparison between two things, typically
    on the basis of their structure and for
    the purpose of explanation or clarification.
p.s. you should pay Heroku the $7/month so that your business website doesn't sleep after n minutes.

Re: Apple is going to have a tough year

#30
Maybe iPhone growth stalls this year sure but I wouldn't bet a single dollar based just on "supply chain reports" which have turned out to be nothingburgers as often as not.

My own prediction for Apple in 2016 is that the iPad returns to growth this (calendar) year.

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