The High-Stakes Race to Rid the World of Human Drivers • Hacker News Board

Re: The High-Stakes Race to Rid the World of Human Drivers

#21

Post by sokoloff » Tue, Dec 15, 2015, 3:36 AM UTC

thrownaway2424 wrote: post #7

caseysoftware wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I believe so. As driverless cars take over more and more, the weird (aka dangerous) behaviors should become less common. Many forms of distracted driving will simply vanish, not even considering the obvious issues like drunk driving. Once you start automating dispatch, I think it simplifies and improves things further. For one, you're going to be less likely to be late.. which means less stress/anxiety and less distr…

My offhand anecdata suggests that the bulk of traffic jams are caused by people driving older cars. There is a little-understood cosmic force that causes cars to stop running in proportion to how critical the section of roadway is to regional transportation and in proportion to the age of the car. 1985 Nissan Sentra in a tunnel? Guaranteed to burst into flames. More seriously, there are obvious reasons why older cars…

It's not obvious to me why older cars are more likely to be in fatal accidents. Even though my '66 Mustang is wildly less safe in many ways, it also gets driven with much more care than what I see around me.

Re: The High-Stakes Race to Rid the World of Human Drivers

#22

Post by jobu » Tue, Dec 15, 2015, 3:36 AM UTC

rconti wrote: post #2

I just bought a 2016 Volkswagen that has laser cruise control and lane assist. I ordered the fully loaded package because the incremental cost was not large, and I figured I might as well have all the toys if I was going to the expense of buying a brand-new car. I consider myself an enthusiast; I have a fair bit of time on the racetrack in lapping days and amateur races, sometimes I volunteer at car control clinics a…

> it's always able to track the car in front of me perfectly

I've always wondered how this would really work. What happens when the car ahead changes lanes or exits the freeway? Have you run into any issues with weather (rain, snow) interfering with the sensor?

Re: The High-Stakes Race to Rid the World of Human Drivers

#23

Post by mikeash » Tue, Dec 15, 2015, 3:36 AM UTC

thrownaway2424 wrote: post #16

chromaton wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Chinese Soda Fallcy I've never heard of this particular logical fallacy and search engines are no help. Can you explain?

Hrmm, I did find exactly one instance of the phrase on Google. I'm surprised, too. As it was explained to me, a Chinese Soda Fallacy is a business plan wherein you stand to make a dollar selling a Coke to everybody in China. You will make a billion dollars! Except that the market-clearing price for Coke in China isn't a dollar, and not everybody wants one, and so on and so forth. The idea that you will make a dime ev…

Sounds like the more generalized equivalent of the typical software fallacy that goes like, "There are umpty million iPhone users, if just 1% of them buys our app...."

Re: The High-Stakes Race to Rid the World of Human Drivers

#24

Post by thrownaway2424 » Tue, Dec 15, 2015, 3:36 AM UTC

sanswork wrote: post #19

thrownaway2424 wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you underestimate how crazy and obnoxious people can be. Take San Francisco, as an example. There are people who are poor and disenfranchised, and mentally ill, who feel that it gives them some power to saunter out into traffic and make everybody stop. With an autonomous car, that deranged person can just sit down in front of the car, bringing everything to a halt. Take New York as another example. For years…

>that deranged person can just sit down in front of the car, bringing everything to a halt. They can do that now unless you are suggesting running them over as a solution.

You can jump out of your car and either rationally debate with them the merits of allowing access to the right-of-way, or jump directly to violent threats. The problem with autonomous cars as they are being rationalized to the public is that half the time the car will have no occupants at all. There will be nobody in the car to leap out and shake their fist.

Re: The High-Stakes Race to Rid the World of Human Drivers

#25

Post by mikeash » Tue, Dec 15, 2015, 3:36 AM UTC

sanswork wrote: post #19

thrownaway2424 wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you underestimate how crazy and obnoxious people can be. Take San Francisco, as an example. There are people who are poor and disenfranchised, and mentally ill, who feel that it gives them some power to saunter out into traffic and make everybody stop. With an autonomous car, that deranged person can just sit down in front of the car, bringing everything to a halt. Take New York as another example. For years…

>that deranged person can just sit down in front of the car, bringing everything to a halt. They can do that now unless you are suggesting running them over as a solution.

Aren't they usually on bicycles when they do this now?

(I'm sorry, I could not resist. I tried.)

Re: The High-Stakes Race to Rid the World of Human Drivers

#26

Post by mikeash » Tue, Dec 15, 2015, 3:40 AM UTC

jobu wrote: post #22

rconti wrote: post #2

I just bought a 2016 Volkswagen that has laser cruise control and lane assist. I ordered the fully loaded package because the incremental cost was not large, and I figured I might as well have all the toys if I was going to the expense of buying a brand-new car. I consider myself an enthusiast; I have a fair bit of time on the racetrack in lapping days and amateur races, sometimes I volunteer at car control clinics a…

> it's always able to track the car in front of me perfectly I've always wondered how this would really work. What happens when the car ahead changes lanes or exits the freeway? Have you run into any issues with weather (rain, snow) interfering with the sensor?

Typically the car is not following the car in front, merely regulating speed to avoid ramming it. In my car, at least, if the car in front changes lanes or exits, then the cruise control system speeds back up to whatever speed I set it to.

This can make for some exciting speed differentials if, for example, everybody is moving 20MPH and they open up a big gap by changing lanes, and my set speed is 70MPH. But it doesn't accelerate aggressively, and this is a rare occasion anyhow.

Re: The High-Stakes Race to Rid the World of Human Drivers

#27

Post by shkkmo » Tue, Dec 15, 2015, 3:43 AM UTC

woofyman wrote: post #15

jjoonathan wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, people will take advantage of AI drivers, but everything will be recorded and I'm sure the autonomous car companies can figure out how to put those recordings to use. Name&shame, sell the info to insurance companies, push to make it an automatic ticket, etc. After a shakedown period a more or less reasonable compromise will surely emerge.

I don't want to live in a society where every car becomes a tool of law enforcement.

I want to live in a world where law enforcement isn't so pre-occupied dealing with traffic violations.

Re: The High-Stakes Race to Rid the World of Human Drivers

#28

Post by pool » Tue, Dec 15, 2015, 3:43 AM UTC

nostromo wrote: post #8

One thing I haven't heard much about is how humans and AI drivers will interact. If we all assume that AI cars are going to be very conservative and very competent drivers, will people take advantage of that? Will human drivers become even bigger assholes that cut off AI drivers at every possibility, knowing that an AI will not hit them? Why wait in a big line for an exit, when you know an AI car will always let you…

I imagine there would be tickets given out for asshole behaviour.

Re: The High-Stakes Race to Rid the World of Human Drivers

#29

Post by thrownaway2424 » Tue, Dec 15, 2015, 3:44 AM UTC

sokoloff wrote: post #21

thrownaway2424 wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My offhand anecdata suggests that the bulk of traffic jams are caused by people driving older cars. There is a little-understood cosmic force that causes cars to stop running in proportion to how critical the section of roadway is to regional transportation and in proportion to the age of the car. 1985 Nissan Sentra in a tunnel? Guaranteed to burst into flames. More seriously, there are obvious reasons why older cars…

It's not obvious to me why older cars are more likely to be in fatal accidents. Even though my '66 Mustang is wildly less safe in many ways, it also gets driven with much more care than what I see around me.

There's probably a bathtub-shapes curve of driver care. I'm sure that drivers of classic American sports cars, at this distance from their dates of manufacture, are taking due caution. People with new cars all have ABS, stability control, and the other bells and whistles. But people who are driving the 1994 Dodge Colt were probably forced into it by financial circumstances. They don't have an investment to protect, they don't have any safety features, and they probably don't even have working shock absorbers or roadworthy tires.

I don't know if I am alone in this perception, but it has been built up over many years of being stuck in traffic on the Bay Bridge. What kinds of cars to you see on fire, on the shoulder, or being pushed off the bridge by those Caltrans wreckers? Old ones. Second-hand cop cars bought at auction. Old Japanese compact pickups with 2 tons of concrete in the beds. Cars that were going 75 MPH on emergency spare tires. Cars with no outside mirrors? WTF?

I ride the bus, so I'm biased. I think if your car breaks down or you get into an accident on the Bay Bridge you should pay a million-dollar fine and have your car and license seized permanently.

Re: The High-Stakes Race to Rid the World of Human Drivers

#30

Post by pool » Tue, Dec 15, 2015, 3:54 AM UTC

larrymcp wrote: post #18

Well if this is a "race" as the headline says, it sure is gonna be a long race, folks. These cars haven't yet been programmed to handle things like snow-covered roads where you can't see the lines, or construction zones that have you driving on the opposite side of the road at the direction of flaggers, etc... there's just a ton of work remaining to be done if your goal is truly to "rid the world of human drivers".

I wonder what the various dreams even are for what to do about snow -- embedding something in the lane marker paint or who knows what.

I rather hope that individual vehicles for everyone just turns out no longer to make sense eventually and goes away.