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Why Tumblr is kicking Posterous's ass

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Re: Why Tumblr is kicking Posterous's ass

#21

Post by pg »

This reminds me of the article posted here recently about the locations of ancient Woolworth's stores. If you'd written an article 3 months ago that led off with the compete.com graph of the two sites' traffic, you could have written about how Posterous was kicking Tumblr's ass, and used that to support an equally plausible sounding thesis about how this was because they were based in Silicon Valley.

This article is like an inverted pyramid, balanced on a couple months' trend in compete.com stats. Not actual traffic stats even, but compete.com estimates of traffic, which as anyone who runs a site knows, can be way off.

Re: Why Tumblr is kicking Posterous's ass

#22

Post by pegobry »

patio11 wrote: post #19
pegobry wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thanks. Am I trolling? I don't think so, insofar as I use a provocative example to illustrate trends that I do think are important: the coming of age of New York as a startup hub and as a "school" for building consumer startups, and the growing importance of design vs. "hard" technology in building a successful consumer web app.

Am I trolling? I don't think so... In order to avoid being mistaken for trolling in the future, you might consider: + Cutting down on the curses, particular in titles. + Avoid personalizing any conflict. Your favorite sports team or the hated cross-town rival "eats dust", case studies on the other hand calmly discuss math. + Ratchet the sarcasm down seven notches. Eight if you're talking to people who know the people…

Thanks for the kind advice. For me, blogging is a conversational medium, I try to write blog posts the way I would speak, and so it's pretty unfiltered. Also I try to be engaging. And insofar as my opinion/analysis has any value, I think it's better for those concerned that it be unvarnished. I don't believe most things should be sugarcoated, and I don't think the kind of people who do startups do either.

Re: Why Tumblr is kicking Posterous's ass

#23

Post by pegobry »

alexro wrote: post #20

I agree with your take on mindset. But eyeballs isn't what makes the company successful in the end, the revenue does. And who has/will have more revenue is an open question for now. Personally I'd put on Posterous.

You're right -- obviously this isn't a post mortem or anything. The trends could reverse, and Posterous could become wildly profitable with less users while Tumblr has plenty of traffic but no money.

Although it seems pretty obvious that both are headed for a combination of advertising/freemium model, and the revenue that comes from that seems pretty correlated to userbase size.

Re: Why Tumblr is kicking Posterous's ass

#24

Post by pegobry »

pg wrote: post #21

This reminds me of the article posted here recently about the locations of ancient Woolworth's stores. If you'd written an article 3 months ago that led off with the compete.com graph of the two sites' traffic, you could have written about how Posterous was kicking Tumblr's ass, and used that to support an equally plausible sounding thesis about how this was because they were based in Silicon Valley. This article is…

Thanks for the comment.

If you have actual traffic stats I'd love to see them. ;)

Also, the estimate isn't for "a couple months", but for the past 12 months, and the trend points in one direction. Even less reliable but even more "damning" is Google Trends: http://google.com/trends?q=tumblr,+posterous&ctab=0&...

That being said, your general point is right: nothing is preordained, and the trends could switch around tomorrow, and the picture look much different a while from now. But that's why I have a blog: this is the situation as I see it today. Maybe six months from now I'll eat my words, who knows?

Re: Why Tumblr is kicking Posterous's ass

#25

Post by toothcomb »

First impressions. I get what posterous can do from the get go (faq). I don't have a clue what tumblr can do for me. I scrolled through a load of self flagellation on the about page, and it still didn't tell me. Both have stupid names.

After working at a myriad of places doing web work, people tend to skimp on the important little pieces that make a site usable. A lot of the time it's style over substance.

I'd have thought tumblr could improve by having the login on the homepage. And I'd prefer to also find a simple paragraph about what it can do.

Re: Why Tumblr is kicking Posterous's ass

#26

Post by pg »

pegobry wrote: post #24
pg wrote: post #21

This reminds me of the article posted here recently about the locations of ancient Woolworth's stores. If you'd written an article 3 months ago that led off with the compete.com graph of the two sites' traffic, you could have written about how Posterous was kicking Tumblr's ass, and used that to support an equally plausible sounding thesis about how this was because they were based in Silicon Valley. This article is…

Thanks for the comment. If you have actual traffic stats I'd love to see them. ;) Also, the estimate isn't for "a couple months", but for the past 12 months, and the trend points in one direction. Even less reliable but even more "damning" is Google Trends: http://google.com/trends?q=tumblr,+posterous&ctab=0&... That being said, your general point is right: nothing is preordained, and the trends could switch around t…

The couple months I was referring to are the last few. The preceding months contradict your thesis.

I think you're mistaking how much license a blog gives you to write about "the situation as I see it today." It's ok to write stuff based on small amounts of data, but the conclusions you're entitled to draw from it should be correspondingly small.

Re: Why Tumblr is kicking Posterous's ass

#27

Post by steveklabnik »

pegobry wrote: post #14
patio11 wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That was my impression at first glance, but look at his description of the steps involved in signing up with a three element form versus signing up via email, and ignore the sarcasm for a second. His conclusion is correct and would not have occurred to me absent reading the article.

Thanks. Am I trolling? I don't think so, insofar as I use a provocative example to illustrate trends that I do think are important: the coming of age of New York as a startup hub and as a "school" for building consumer startups, and the growing importance of design vs. "hard" technology in building a successful consumer web app.

> Am I trolling? I don't think so, insofar as I use a provocative example...

Here's UrbanDictionary's definition of "troll":

> One who posts a deliberately provocative message to a newsgroup or message board with the intention of causing maximum disruption and argument

It's hard to be disruptive on your own blog, but you can see how if you fit the first half of the definition, you might be mistaken for the whole definition.

I personally don't think that you're being a troll, as there's nobody to really upset or disrupt. Maybe the Posterous devs aren't going to like you anymore? But it does come across as a little linkbait-y. I agree with my sibling comment's advice on how to rectify this in the future.

Re: Why Tumblr is kicking Posterous's ass

#28

Post by pegobry »

pg wrote: post #26
pegobry wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thanks for the comment. If you have actual traffic stats I'd love to see them. ;) Also, the estimate isn't for "a couple months", but for the past 12 months, and the trend points in one direction. Even less reliable but even more "damning" is Google Trends: http://google.com/trends?q=tumblr,+posterous&ctab=0&... That being said, your general point is right: nothing is preordained, and the trends could switch around t…

The couple months I was referring to are the last few. The preceding months contradict your thesis. I think you're mistaking how much license a blog gives you to write about "the situation as I see it today." It's ok to write stuff based on small amounts of data, but the conclusions you're entitled to draw from it should be correspondingly small.

They don't contradict my thesis since Tumblr was always much bigger than Posterous and while they may have had faster growth it was never enough to catch up.

Again -- I may be proven wrong in six months or a year, and if so I admit it publicly right here (in fact, do you want to make a bet?). But I think at this stage the data warrants the trend I extrapolate from it.

Re: Why Tumblr is kicking Posterous's ass

#29

Post by 3pt14159 »

pg wrote: post #21

This reminds me of the article posted here recently about the locations of ancient Woolworth's stores. If you'd written an article 3 months ago that led off with the compete.com graph of the two sites' traffic, you could have written about how Posterous was kicking Tumblr's ass, and used that to support an equally plausible sounding thesis about how this was because they were based in Silicon Valley. This article is…

From Compete - yearly change:

tumblr: +184.36%

posterous: +297.36%

So, uh, even with the last 3 months in posterous is still growing faster than tumblr. If it were a stock its valuation would have increased more than tumblr. Also, wouldn't there definitely be less hits to posterous based on the fact that you EMAIL posts in rather than sign in? That being said, the tumblr landing experience is probably one of the reasons I blog with them and not posterous.

Re: Why Tumblr is kicking Posterous's ass

#30

Post by pegobry »

3pt14159 wrote: post #29
pg wrote: post #21

This reminds me of the article posted here recently about the locations of ancient Woolworth's stores. If you'd written an article 3 months ago that led off with the compete.com graph of the two sites' traffic, you could have written about how Posterous was kicking Tumblr's ass, and used that to support an equally plausible sounding thesis about how this was because they were based in Silicon Valley. This article is…

From Compete - yearly change: tumblr: +184.36% posterous: +297.36% So, uh, even with the last 3 months in posterous is still growing faster than tumblr. If it were a stock its valuation would have increased more than tumblr. Also, wouldn't there definitely be less hits to posterous based on the fact that you EMAIL posts in rather than sign in? That being said, the tumblr landing experience is probably one of the reas…

Great points. I'll incorporate them into the post.

It's growing faster from a smaller base, though. I find more relevant that Tumblr is still much, much bigger. And I think it will stay that way.

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